玉晶光為高階鏡頭升級週期再起的關鍵贏家：iPhone 17前相機升級、iPhone 16 Pro潛望鏡與超廣角、Vision Pro、與華為P70超廣角 / Genius is a key beneficiary of the re-accelerating cycle of high-end lens upgrades: iPhone 17 front camera upgrade, iPhone 16 Pro periscope and ultra-wide lenses, Vision Pro and Huawei P70 ultra-wide lens

我最新的供應鏈調查顯示，玉晶光在未來1–2年將擁有數個來自高階產品的關鍵成長驅動，包括iPhone 17的前相機鏡頭顯著升級、iPhone 16 Pro系列潛望鏡鏡頭 (Apple稱為四重反射稜鏡)、Vision Pro的高單價Pancake、iPhone 16 Pro系列超廣角鏡頭、與華為P70系列的超廣角鏡頭。

1. iPhone 17前相機將升級至24MP/6P鏡頭 (vs. iPhone 15 & 16的12MP/5P)，成像品質可望大幅提升。玉晶光為iPhone前相機主要鏡頭供應商，因6P鏡頭單價較5P高100–120%，可望顯著貢獻玉晶光2H25營收超過30億元 (新台幣) 與利潤。
2. 玉晶光驗證iPhone 16 Pro潛望鏡進度順利，可望自2Q24底/3Q24初開始出貨並顯著貢獻2H24營收超過新台幣30億元與利潤。兩款iPhone 16 Pro的換機需求受益於配備更大螢幕故出貨可望較iPhone 15 Pro系列增加5–10%，故即便考慮潛望鏡降價10–15%與大立光仍為主要供應商，iPhone 16 Pro的高單價潛望鏡仍可顯著貢獻玉晶光2H24營收與利潤。
3. 玉晶光自2023年底/2024年初開始大量出貨Vision Pro的高單價Pancake (為獨家供應商)，貢獻2024年營收約10億新台幣。Vision Pro對玉晶光的營收貢獻程度較大多數供應商明顯。
4. 玉晶光的iPhone 16 Pro系列的超廣角鏡頭獲利可望進一步成長 (為主要供應商)。iPhone 16 Pro系列超廣角相機將升級至48MP/0.7um/(1/2.6") (vs. iPhone 15 Pro的12MP/1.0um/(1/3.6"))，預期輸出規格為12MP並顯著改善成像品質。iPhone 16 Pro超廣角維持6P鏡頭設計，故單價提升有限，但因生產良率持續提升，故玉晶光的超廣角鏡頭獲利可望進一步成長。
5. 玉晶光為華為1H24新機P70系列的超廣角鏡頭供應商。因P70系列超廣角相機升級且出貨量預期成長100–120% YoY (vs. P60系列出貨量)，可望降低淡季效應對玉晶光的影響。

My latest survey indicates several key high-end growth drivers will boost Genius over the next 1–2 years. These include a significant upgrade to the iPhone 17’s front camera lens, the periscope lens (which Apple calls a tetraprism) for the iPhone 16 Pro series, the high-unit price pancake for Vision Pro, the ultra-wide lens for the iPhone 16 Pro series, and the ultra-wide lens for the Huawei P70 series.

1. The front camera of the iPhone 17 will be upgraded to 24MP/6P lens (vs. the 12MP/5P lens of iPhone 15 & 16), which will significantly improve the image quality. Genius is the primary lens supplier for iPhone front cameras. As the unit price of the 6P lens is 100–120% higher than that of the 5P, it will contribute significantly to Genius’ revenue of more than NT$3 billion and profit in 2H25.
2. Genius’ progress on the iPhone 16 Pro’s periscope lens is on track. It will start shipping by the end of 2Q24 or early 3Q24, contributing significantly to Genius’ revenue of over NT$3 billion and profit in 2H24. Replacement demand for the two iPhone 16 Pro models will benefit from the larger screen, increasing shipments by 5–10% compared to the iPhone 15 Pro series. Therefore, even considering the 10–15% price reduction of the periscope lens and Largan remaining the main supplier, the high unit price of the iPhone 16 Pro periscope lens can still contribute significantly to Genius’ revenue and profit in 2H24.
3. Genius, as the exclusive supplier, started mass shipments of high-unit-price pancakes for Vision Pro by the end of 2023. It’s estimated to contribute approximately NT$1 billion to Genius’ revenue in 2024. Vision Pro contributes significantly more to Genius’s revenue than most vendors.
4. Genius’ ultra-wide lens profit for the iPhone 16 Pro series (as a major supplier) will continue to grow. The ultra-wide camera of the iPhone 16 Pro series will be upgraded to 48MP/0.7um/(1/2.6") (vs. iPhone 15 Pro’s 12MP/1.0um/(1/3.6")). The expected output specification is 12MP, which will significantly improve image quality. The iPhone 16 Pro ultra-wide camera remains the 6P lens design, so the lens unit price increase is limited. However, as the production yield continues to improve, the profit of Genius’s ultra-wide lens will continue to increase.
5. Genius is the supplier of the ultra-wide lens for Huawei’s 1H24 new P70 series. With the P70 series’ ultra-wide camera upgrade and an estimated 100–120% YoY shipment growth (vs. P60 series), Genius can mitigate the impact of the off-season effect.