蘋果鏡頭供應商的2個風險：高庫存導致2Q23衰退幅度高於預期，與供應商無法自潛望鏡相機鏡頭中獲利 / Apple camera lens suppliers face two risks: high inventory levels leading to a weaker-than-expected 2Q23 & suppliers being unable to profit from periscope camera lenses
2 min readMar 30, 2023
- 我先前預期的iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max的零組件/鏡頭庫存風險正發生中 (https://twitter.com/mingchikuo/status/1599819143728881664)。以大立光的2月營收為例，因工作天數較多，但營收卻衰退21% MoM。我認為這是一個值得關注的警訊。
- Apple的鏡頭訂單在2Q23非常疲弱，預期將衰退35–40% QoQ，高於組裝與部分零組件的30–35%。與2Q22相較，也顯著衰退30–40% YoY。
- 大立光為今年iPhone 15 Pro Max的潛望鏡相機的獨家鏡頭供應商，市場有高估潛望鏡對玉晶光2H23–1H24營收與利潤的疑慮。
- 大立光出貨潛望鏡相機鏡頭的單價約為USD 4 (包含稜鏡)，顯著低於市場共識的4.5–5或以上。值得注意的是，USD 4的價格，代表大立光無法從潛望鏡的相機鏡頭中獲利。
- 預期玉晶光將自iPhone 16開始供應潛望鏡的鏡頭，屆時該零組件的價格將會更低，不利鏡頭供應商。
- The component/lens inventory risk I had previously predicted for the iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max is now happening (https://twitter.com/mingchikuo/status/1599819143728881664). For instance, despite having more working days in February, Largan’s revenue declined by 21% MoM. I think this is a warning sign worth noting.
- Apple’s lens orders in 2Q23 are very weak and expected to decline by 35–40% QoQ, higher than the 30–35% decline for assembly and some components. Compared to 2Q22, this represents a significant 30–40% YoY decline.
- Largan is expected to be the sole lens supplier for this year’s iPhone 15 Pro Max periscope camera. The market may have overestimated the contribution of the periscope lens to Genius’s revenue and profit for 2H23–1H24.
- The ASP for Largan’s shipped periscope camera lenses is around USD 4 (including the prisms), notably lower than the market consensus of USD 4.5–5 or higher. It is worth noting that the price of USD 4 means that Largan cannot profit from the periscope camera lens.
- It is anticipated that Genius will start supplying periscope lenses for the iPhone 16, at which point the component’s price will be even lower, negatively impacting lens suppliers.
