采鈺為Apple 2024年採用超透鏡 (Metalens) 之主要受益者；歌爾股份為值得關注的概念股 / VisEra is the primary beneficiary of Apple’s metalens adoption in 2024, with Goertek as a concept stock worth watching

最新調查與預測摘要：

1. 供應鏈預計將在2024年量產Apple的Metalens，預計用於取代iPad的Face ID Tx的塑膠鏡頭。
2. 台積電與采鈺為Apple的Metalens關鍵製程供應商。若考慮到Metalens對營收與利潤的貢獻，采鈺為主要受益者。
3. 若用於2024年iPad的Metalens順利出貨，則iPhone Face ID預計將在2025或2026年 (目前看後者可能性較高) 也將採用Metalens。
4. Metalens相較既有塑膠鏡頭的優勢為成本低與高度低。
5. 從技術角度，繼Face ID Tx後，Metalens在短期內可能會取代既有塑膠鏡頭的應用為Face ID Rx或ToF Tx/Rx。
6. 考慮到製程與算法進展，Metalens就算要取代既有拍照相機的最低階塑膠鏡頭，最快也要到2028–2030年。在可見未來，Metalens不會對既有塑膠鏡頭的規格升級趨勢 (如7P升級到8P、潛望鏡等) 有任何影響，但投資人須關注未來數年內Metalens將逐步取代既有塑膠鏡頭在3D感測的應用。
7. Apple發展Metalens的長期策略目標有3個：(1) 降低對既有塑膠鏡頭的依賴、(2) Metalens的技術與成本優勢有利於產品設計與銷售、(3) Apple預計最快在2026或2027年量產的Apple Glasses (非AR/MR頭盔) 將大量應用Metalens。
8. 眼鏡類型的頭戴顯示器裝置為Metalens的殺手應用。若眼鏡類型的頭戴顯示器裝置能取得成功，Metalens出貨量可望將爆炸性增長。
9. 目前歌爾股份為全球Metalens模組與貼合量產技術領先者，Apple若能帶動Metalens應用趨勢，則歌爾股份將是此趨勢的主要受益者之一。

The summary of latest surveys and predictions:

1. The supply chain is anticipated to start mass production of Apple’s metalens in 2024, which is expected to replace the iPad’s plastic lens of the Face ID Tx.
2. TSMC and VisEra are critical process suppliers for Apple’s metalens. Given metalens’ revenue and profit contributions, VisEra is the primary beneficiary.
3. Should the metalens for the iPad in 2024 successfully ships, iPhone Face ID will adopt metalens in 2025 or 2026 (the latter is more likely at present).
4. Metalens offers the advantages of lower cost and reduced height vs. existing plastic lenses.
5. Technically speaking, after Face ID Tx, metalens could replace current plastic lens applications in Face ID Rx or ToF Tx/Rx in the short term.
6. Factoring in the manufacturing process and algorithm progress, the earliest metalens could replace the lowest-end plastic lenses in existing cameras would be between 2028 and 2030. Metalens will not have any foreseeable impacts on the trend of existing plastic lens specification upgrades (e.g., upgrade from 7P to 8P, periscope, etc.). However, investors should be aware that over the next few years, metalens will gradually replace existing plastic lenses in 3D sensing applications.
7. Apple’s metalens development has three long-term strategic goals: (1) reduce reliance on existing plastic lenses; (2) leverage metalens’ technological and cost advantages for product design and sales; and (3) facilitate the extensive use of metalens in Apple Glasses (not AR/MR headsets) whcih will go to mass production in 2026 or 2027 at the earliest.
8. Glasses-type head-mounted display devices are the killer application for metalens. If glasses-type head-mounted display devices achieve success, metalens shipments can experience explosive growth.
9. Goertek is currently the global leader in metalens module and lamination/bonding mass production technology. If Apple can drive the trend of metalens applications, Goertek will be among the primary beneficiaries of this trend.