韋爾與思特威的高階CIS市占率預期將顯著成長，為CIS產業確定於3Q23觸底與中國國產替代的最大受益者 / Will Semi’s and Smatsens’ high-end CIS market share is expected to grow significantly, as they are the biggest beneficiaries of the CIS industry bottoming out in 3Q23 and China’s domestic replacement policy

I. 產業背景與現況：

1. 兩款iPhone 15標準版的廣角CIS升級到48MP並採用堆疊式CIS新設計，因良率低故Sony提升Apple CIS產能100–120%以滿足Apple需求，導致Android高階CIS供應顯著降低。
2. 全球CIS晶圓重組 (wafer reconstruction；RW) 關鍵供應商同欣電於7月25日的法說中指出CIS產業的谷底為3Q23。
3. 中國半導體產業政策持續執行國產替代策略，這是同欣電保守看待未來手機CIS RW業務的主因 (訂單持續流失到中國競爭對手)。
4. 目前CIS供應鏈庫存已經由1H23的30–40週已改善至正常水準 (10–14週)。
5. AI視覺應用將是另一個長期推升CIS成長的關鍵，現階段能見度最高的應用是自動駕駛，下一個可能性最高的是機器人。

II. 韋爾受惠於高階CIS市占率未來數年顯著提升：

1. 因Sony降低高階Android CIS供應，故品牌廠須積極找替代方案，有利韋爾的高階CIS (64MP+) 訂單顯著成長 (自2H23開始)。韋爾的高階CIS市佔率，預計將自2023年的3–5%，分別顯著成長至2024與2025年的10–15%與20–25%，有利長期營收與利潤成長。
2. 韋爾目前庫存水位，目前已降至正常水準 (約12週)。

III. 思特威與中國品牌的高階CIS合作將越來越緊密：

考慮到Sony越來越多的產能與研發資源將持續被Apple佔據，華為等中國品牌將積極與更多CIS供應商合作，除了韋爾外，思特威也是潛在值得關注的關鍵供應商。

I. Industry background and current situation:

1. The wide camera CIS of the two iPhone 15 standard models will be upgraded to 48MP and adopt a new stacked CIS design. Due to the low yield rate, Sony has increased the CIS production capacity for Apple by 100–120% to meet Apple’s demand, resulting in a significant reduction in high-end CIS supply for Android.
2. The global CIS wafer reconstruction (RW) key supplier Tong Hsing’s earnings call pointed out that the bottom of the CIS industry is 3Q23.
3. China’s semiconductor industry policy continues to implement the domestic replacement strategy, which is the main reason why Tong Hsing is conservative in its future mobile phone CIS RW business (orders continue to be lost to Chinese competitors).
4. The current inventory in the CIS supply chain has improved to a normal level (10–14 weeks) from 30–40 weeks in 1H23.
5. AI visualization applications will be the other key to driving CIS growth in the long term. The most visible application at this stage is self-driving cars, and the next most likely is robotics.

II. Will Semi will benefit from a significant market share gain of high-end CIS in the next few years:

1. As Sony has reduced the supply of high-end Android CIS, brand vendors need to actively seek alternative solutions, benefiting Will Semi’s high-end CIS (64MP+) order growth (since 2H23). Will Semi’s high-end CIS market share is expected to increase significantly from 3–5% in 2023 to 10–15% and 20–25% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, which is conducive to long-term revenue and profit growth.
2. The current inventory level of Will Semi has improved to a normal level (about 12 weeks).

III. The high-end CIS cooperation between Smartsens and Chinese brands will become closer:

Given that more and more of Sony’s capacity and R&D resources will continue to be consumed by Apple, Chinese brands such as Huawei will actively partner with more CIS suppliers, and in addition to Will Semi, Smartsens is a potential key supplier worthy of attention.