At the start of his third season in charge of Bayern Munich, Pep Guardiola had an epiphany.
Out of the five Bayern managers that preceded him, covering a period of seventeen years, only one of them made it to their fourth year.
Maybe three years, Guardiola thought, was the natural limitation of how long a person could helm the Dreadnought that was FC Bayern Munich.¹
Coincidentally, Guardiola’s contract was for three years, and the Catalan decided to move on at the end of it, swapping Bavaria for the North of England.
Seven years have passed since Guardiola departed the Allianz Arena, and five managers have come and gone, none of them making it even past their second year.
Not the legendary Carlo Ancelotti. Not the treble-winning Hansi Flick. And not even Julian Nagelsmann, who’d cost the Bavarians a whopping €25 million to poach from RB Leipzig.
In many ways, the advent of modernity in football has been synonymous with its commercialization.
TV broadcasting led to unprecedented profits for the clubs, and with it, unprecedented costs. Every aspect of the sport — from coaching and scouting down to the dieting of individual players — was professionalized as clubs sought to gain an edge over their rivals, and the ever-increasing costs demanded by the modern age led to ever-pressing needs for returns on that investment.
After all, there are no excuses for managers not to achieve results anymore. Not with how many tools they have at their disposal.
Elite sport is a ruthless meritocracy indeed.
Emma Hayes has entered her twelfth year as Chelsea Women’s manager, but her remarkable longevity is underpinned by equally remarkable success — namely, seven Women’s Super League titles in the past nine years, with five FA Cups and two League Cups as the cherry on top.
Trophies have not come as readily to Arsenal, with only one WSL title and three domestic cups over that same nine-year period, and as a result, managers have not enjoyed the same longevity on the red side of London.
Five managers have helmed Arsenal between the legendary Vic Akers’ departure in 2009 and Jonas Eidevall’s arrival in 2021, and only Joe Montemurro — Eidevall’s immediate predecessor — made it past their third year.
The kind of success the Gunners enjoyed in the first decade of the century has eluded them since, and though Montemurro delivered the North London side’s first WSL title since 2012 in his first full season in charge, he never quite managed to close the gap with Chelsea and Manchester City, securing only four points out of a possible twenty-four against them during his last two seasons.
When Eidevall was named Montemurro’ successor in summer 2021, he inherited a side that had just lost two key players in Danielle van de Donk and Jill Roord, with their talisman Vivianne Miedema in the final year of her contract and halfway out of the door already.
So dire was the club’s state that even Leah Williamson — a lifelong gunner and one of the finest products of Hale End — would only commit to a one-year extension.
The task of catching up to Chelsea and City was a daunting one and Eidevall tackled it with an energy that reinvigorated his new charges, most notably Beth Mead.
The Gunners secured eight points against Chelsea and City (albeit three of them were won against a City side decimated by injuries) and finished second in the table — only a single point behind their crosstown rival, and both Williamson and Miedema penned new contracts. Eidevall had closed the gap in his very first season, and he had done it largely by getting more out of the players he’d inherited.
His second season similarly got off to a roaring start, but it was derailed by Mead’s and Miedema’s ACL tears in quick succession.
Though the North London side’s form recovered following the arrival of Victoria Pelova in January and the revival of Noelle Martiz and Stina Blackstenius, more injuries to key players followed, with Kim Little, Leah Williamson, Laura Wienroither and Lia Wälti all suffering season-ending injuries and both Steph Catley and Caitlin Foord missing a significant number of games.
It is true that the Gunners finished their 22/23 season well behind Chelsea and indeed their own record from the previous campaign, but given the adverse circumstances, it was nothing short of remarkable that they managed to secure a third-place finish in the WSL and with it a spot in the following season’s UWCL qualifiers ahead of a resurgent City.
One of the highlights of Arsenal’s season was selling out the Emirates Stadium for the first time with over 60,000 people in attendance for their UWCL semi-final clash with Wolfsburg, and with a record five WSL games due to be played there in the upcoming season, the club was clearly expecting the good times to keep rolling in N7.
The loss to Paris FC in the first round of UWCL qualifiers was a body blow to the Gunners, and it was made all the more bitter by the fact that the North London side had to overcome extraordinary adversity to secure a place in said qualifiers last season, and only on the final day.
Questions are inevitably asked when a club falls short of expectations, and given the Gunners’ disjointed performance that night with poor individual showings and some questionable selections from the manager, the spotlight is firmly on Jonas Eidevall.
And not in a flattering way.
Four years have passed since Arsenal’s last WSL title and the only addition to their trophy cabinet since was the League Cup in February — their first piece of silverware of the Eidevall era. With no European football in the new season, pressure is higher than ever on the Gunners to reclaim the league title from Chelsea.
A not-insignificant section of the fanbase had turned on Eidevall during the poor run of results following Meadema’s injuries and calls for his head will no doubt return should the Swede be unable to deliver the league trophy for the third season running.
After all, he has been backed significantly by the club and there is no European football to detract the North London side from their domestic campaign.
But the case is not so cut and dry.
How well has Eidevall really been backed?
The five transfer windows of the Eidevall era so far have been a very mixed bag.
Much of the business of the summer 2021 window was conducted before Eidevall’s appointment, and it is unsurprising that many of the new arrivals had limited influence under the new regime.
Tobin Heath and Mana Iwabuchi played well whenever they were on the pitch, which was not very often given their fitness struggles. Nikita Parris did not fit the mold of an Eidevall winger and never truly got settled in North London. And though Frida Leonhardsen Maanum came good, it would not happen until her second season.
The winter window unfolded differently. With Eidevall having firmly stamped his authority on the team and Arsenal in their best position to challenge for the WSL title since 2019, three quality players were brought in — all of whom went on to assume important roles within the squad, most notably Brazil center back Rafaelle.
Summer 2022 was one of euphoria for all England fans and for gooners in particular. Miedema’s decision to renew her contract was a surprise, but a welcome one to be sure, and tying down their superstar was indeed a bigger boost than any new signing would’ve been.
Two Arsenal players were also front and center during England’s triumph in the home EURO, with Leah Williamson captaining the side and Beth Mead being named Player of the Tournament after a goal-laden individual campaign.
But the highs that summer brought should not obscure the fact that Arsenal had a very poor transfer window.
The only major piece of business from the North London club was the signing of Lina Hurtig, and she arrived as a replacement for the departing Nikita Parris. Kaylan Marckese similarly arrived as a replacement for the departing second-choice goalkeeper Lydia Williams, while Gio was signed more for her potential than ability.
On the back of an unexpected title challenge and a tidal wave of newfound interest in the WSL after the EURO, one would expect Arsenal to spare no expense and bring in major reinforcements in their quest to dethrone Chelsea, but that simply did not happen.
The club brought in a replacement for Parris, a new backup goalkeeper and a 19-year-old who was immediately loaned out, and Eidevall went into the 22/23 season without a significantly strengthened squad.
Neither Lia Wälti nor Beth Mead had a deputy to share their match load with, and this was particularly damning in Mead’s case since she had played a significant number of minutes at the EURO and had very little time to recuperate before pre-season.
Would Mead’s ligaments have held together if she’d been afforded more rest in the new season?
It is impossible to know, but at the very least, Arsenal would not have been caught as flat-footed as they were, with only a 16-year-old Michelle Agyemang as their only other right winger.
And when Miedema did her ACL too less than a month later, it spelled the end of Arsenal’s title hopes. Though the Gunners would remain on Chelsea’s heels well into 2023, they never looked like they would actually close the gap without their two best players.
Perhaps the story would have ended differently had Arsenal pulled off the marquee signing of Alessia Russo in January. Eidevall made it very clear that he needed more firepower — someone capable of replacing (at least some of) Meadema’s output, and the club set its eyes on Cloé Lacasse, then in the form of her life for Benfica. But the Lisbon side demanded a significant fee — one which Arsenal was not willing to pay for a 29-year-old.
The 11th-hour record-breaking bid for Russo reeked of desperation and poor planning — after all, Manchester United was never likely to let one of their best players leave for a rival when they were challenging for the WSL title for the first time in their short history.
And if there was a deal to be made for Russo, it would have needed to happen well before deadline day, with ample time left for the Red Devils to find a replacement.
Had Arsenal met Benfica’s asking price for Lacasse or tempted United with a big-money bid for Russo at the start of the window then they could well have landed their prolific goalscorer. But in any case, the North London side’s unwillingness to pay for Lacasse’s signature left them unable to secure Russo’s, and they ended up empty-handed.
January 2023 saw the arrival of Victoria Pelova and Kathrine Kühl. But the Gunners’ improbable title challenge would have to continue without a replacement for their prolific forwards.
In the end, it was Manchester United who came closest to usurping Chelsea’s throne, finishing second in both the WSL and the FA Cup.
That brings us to the present day.
Viewed in isolation, the summer window that just closed was a superb one for Arsenal.
Russo and Lacasse both made the long-awaited move to Meadow Park, while Amanda Illestdt joined on a free transfer and Laia Codina arrived from Barcelona as a freshly-minted world champion. The signing that really turned heads, however, was confirmed on deadline day when Kyra Cooney-Cross was unveiled as Arsenal’s new number 32.
In Cooney-Cross and Kühl, Arsenal has two of the most exciting young midfielders in the world and in due time, successors for Kim Little and Lia Wälti.
But the window cannot and should not be viewed in isolation — the proper context must be applied.
An understudy to Mead was needed a year ago and a prolific goalscorer was needed half a year ago. Arsenal did very well securing Russo’s and Lacasse’s signatures before the World Cup, but they arrived too late nevertheless. The good business done by the club this summer should not obscure the poor planning and lack of ambition that preceded it.
It was a mistake to go into the 22/23 season without an understudy for Mead just like it was a mistake to end the winter window without either Russo or Lacasse.
Had Arsenal shown this kind of ambition and decisiveness a year ago they could well be entering the new season as reigning champions. But they did not, and Russo and Lacasse joined a side without either Mead or Miedema for the foreseeable future.
Of course, the loss of Meadema was not the only blow the North London side was dealt last season.
Leah Williamson and Laura Wienroither tore their ACLs too toward the end of the season, and Arsenal’s defensive woes were worsened still by the unexpected departure of Rafaelle at the end of the season.
Ilestedt and Codina are both capable players, but Williamson and Rafaelle were two of the best center backs in the world who together formed arguably the best central defense in the WSL. The Williamson-Rafaelle partnership is simply impossible to replace.
As their opening WSL fixture with Liverpool approaches, there is little doubt that Arsenal are beginning their 23/24 campaign with a weaker side than the one that swept aside Brighton on the opening day of the 22/23 season. Their midfield is considerably stronger, but the same cannot be said of their frontline or defense.
But every cloud has a silver lining, and it is likely that the loss to Paris FC jolted the club out of its complacency. In securing Cooney-Cross’ signature, Arsenal has secured its future. In that regard, the North London side may well have been better off losing that game.
After all, what is losing European football for one season compared to securing the anchor of their midfield for the next decade?
With Chelsea and United both fighting on multiple fronts, this is an opportunity for Arsenal to push for their first WSL title since 2019, and Cooney-Cross may well prove to be the piece to complete the puzzle.
However, it is important for gooners not to get ahead of themselves. There are no guarantees in football, least of all when one has to contend with formidable foes.
And the most formidable foe Arsenal will have to contend with this season is Manchester City.
City enters the new season with the same advantage as the North London side while possessing a stronger squad given Arsenal’s long-term injuries and their own clean bill of health.
Their frontline, in particular, is as good as any in Europe and has been bolstered even further with the signing of a familiar face — former Arsenal player Jill Roord, who has fast become a villain to a fanbase that once adored her after scoring to knock her former side out of the UWCL for two seasons in a row.
As long as it has been since Arsenal’s last WSL title, it has been even longer since City’s. The Eidevall era has coincided with a period of instability and decline for the North Western outfit, and after falling well short of their usual high standards for two seasons in a row, City has just as much hunger for the coveted WSL trophy as Arsenal, if not more.
There is an air of inevitability around Chelsea. Sometimes they sprint across the finishing line. Other times they stumble. But they get across the line all the same.
Arsenal had felled Chelsea 3–2 at the Emirates in Eidevall’s first WSL game in charge — their first three points against the West London side since the title-winning 18/19 season — and secured a goaless draw in the reverse fixture.
Indeed, four points were the most they’d taken off Chelsea since the WSL’s inaugural 2011 season, and Arsenal were front runners for much of the campaign.
The draw at Kingsmeadow, however, handed the initiative back to Chelsea. And though Arsenal won all their remaining WSL games, Chelsea went on to win nine games in a row to secure the league title by a single point on the last match day.
Arsenal had done their part, but Chelsea doesn’t slip up. Not when the season is down the stretch. They may not always play joga bonito, but they always get it done.
An ACL tear is among the most devastating injuries that can happen to an athlete, and recovery is long and brutal. It takes a long time for a player to return to the pitch after the injury, and even longer still for them to return to their best — if they ever do.
Jordan Nobbs had been a brilliant player for Arsenal, but she was never quite the same again after tearing her ACL. The same thing happened to Rob Holding and too many other players to count, and though Mead’s return to the pitch is imminent, it is anyone’s guess what form she will be in or if she will ever be her old self again.
And even if she does get back to her best — and this is also true for Miedema, Williamson and Wienroither — it will not happen until well into 2024.
This leads us to a very uncomfortable line of inquiry — Kim Little is already 33, how old is she going to be by the time Arsenal is back to full strength?
Longevity cannot be taken for granted in football and for every Modric there are two Wilshere’s. Little will be 34 in 2024, the same age former Arsenal captain Alex Scott was when she retired. Will she still be playing at her current level in a year’s time?
If there ever was a time for Arsenal to wrestle the crown from Chelsea, it was the 22/23 season, and the club’s complacency could well have squandered their best chance at winning the WSL in the current cycle. When they finally lift that coveted trophy again, it will likely be with a core group of players that looks very different.
Worse still, the complacency of summer 2022 could well have squandered their captain’s last few years at the very top level.
Pelova and Kühl were certainly both signed with life after Little in mind, but they cannot replace her.
No one can.
Kim Little is a legend of the game and a generational talent, someone who is simply impossible to replace. And Arsenal’s fortunes going forward will in a large part depend on how well they cope with her eventual decline and departure.
This is not to dredge up old grievances, but to point out that while Eidevall has finally been backed by the club, it did not happen until now, two years after his appointment and after the embarrassing loss to Paris FC. This is crucial context when assessing his time at the helm.
In the meanwhile, the crown sits on Chelsea’s head still and if anyone is to wrestle it from them this season, one would back City to do it.
But lamenting past mistakes will not change what happened.
Modern managers have to be able to manage up as well as down — to be able to work with the boardroom as well as the dressing room.
Eidevall’s contract expires at the end of the season and if he is to make it to his fourth year, it will be crucial for him to retain the confidence of both his players and superiors. Patience is a finite resource and one that may well deplete overnight, and Eidevall will have to show that his project is worth persisting with.
So what should Arsenal’s goals be in the upcoming season?
In Eidevall’s first season, the goal was to close or at least narrow the gap with Chelsea and City.
In his second season, it was to push for the WSL title as well as a deep UWCL run. After losing Meadema, the goal quickly morphed into retaining a place in the following season’s UWCL qualifiers.
Arsenal enters the third season of the Eidevall era stronger than they were in 2021, but not quite as strong as they were in 2022. Accordingly, the objectives become somewhat muddled. Not winning the WSL would be a disappointment and a failure, but the continued absence of some of their best players makes the mood slightly more forgiving.
That being said, Eidevall’s project is in its third year and momentum is essential to keep it going.
Arsenal has to do well in the domestic competitions and win something, ideally the WSL. If the Gunners do not challenge the league title again and win either the FA Cup or the League Cup at the minimum, then it is difficult to see the players keeping faith with the project.
Miedema, one should remember, is in the final year of her contract again.
The WSL season is not yet underway and it is too soon to talk about what might happen at the end of it. It is, however, worth a reminder that Arsenal’s Swedish union has already borne fruit.
Eidevall took over a group full of talent and gave them belief. No longer is Arsenal an afterthought in the title race, they are now mentioned in the same breath as Chelsea and City.
Moreover, they now have as much pulling power as any side in Europe save Barcelona and Lyon. They did, after all, beat a lot of competitors to Cooney-Cross’ signature, including Chelsea. That alone makes his time in North London a success even if he departs at the end of the upcoming season without having won the WSL.
If Eidevall does indeed make it into his fourth year, he will have been in the job longer than any post-Akers manager save Montemurro, and he will be under more pressure than ever to deliver the elusive WSL title.
And that’s the way it should be.
After all, how can you catch up to Barcelona and Lyon if you can’t even beat Chelsea?
As often is the case, some wisdom may be imparted from Guardiola, who believes that “if clubs like Barcelona, Madrid, United compete with a month to go, you have done what you were asked to do. The rest depends on the intangibles.”²
¹Balague, G. (2018) “The Prisoner. The Third and Final Season”, in Pep Guardiola: Another Way of Winning. London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson.
²Balague, G. (2018) “Pep Guardiola and José Mourinho”, in Pep Guardiola: Another Way of Winning. London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson.
