In short, even though an NFL game is only scored in whole numbers, and there are only 3–4…
Harvey Danger
1

Definitely agree on less punts and going for it on 4th and short in general. But considering that the NFL’s most evolved plays to score goal line / 2pt are vanilla smash runs up the gut or fade routes on the outside, it doesn’t seem like the offenses are gonna get any better. I think odds would also support that the more you go for 2, the more likely you are to fail (since there’s more samples to study and less surprises.) So it’s all close for sure, but I’m old school in not taking any risks unless you have to.