Great, well thought out article.
I really appreciate that you acknowledge the problem with the question: you can’t ask if X can develop Y if you don’t even know for sure what Y is.
I haven’t read the rest of your articles yet, but here are my questions:
1: Is sentience well described as something that develops from raw computing power given a basic ‘operating system’?
2: What effect do you expect the new generation of quantum computing to have on the development of AI? (Does the new base computational system have anything to do with neural networks?)
3: Does the ‘brain in a vat’ play into this at all? If Sedol was nothing more than a brain in a vat and played AlphaGo, would we then say that a digital computer had beaten an organic one?