Here Come the New Business Fortune Tellers

I’ve said before that business was like a heist, as opposed to a war. It’s just as likely that it’s a gamble. You make bets with your time, money and energy in the hopes of beating the house. The house is called “the market”

Big data was the hot new thing a few years back. Having all the data we could ever want on hand was going to reveal everything we ever wanted to know. But deep down, that wasn’t what we wanted. What we wanted was to know the future. Big data did reveal hidden patterns and provide insight, but it wasn’t the crystal ball we hoped it would be. However, some analysts, strategists and data scientists were able to do more with that data. Instead of providing recommendations, they did something useful. They made predictions.

Forecasting is about to have its moment. With so much data at our collective disposal, not knowing what happens next has grown tiresome. Now Philip Tetlock’s book Superforecasters, released last year, has the C-suite’s wheels turning. This is leading to the rise of what I call The New Fortune Tellers. Strategists, analysts, data scientists and researchers that predict events relevant to the business.

Of course, this practice isn’t anything new, but bosses always ambush their teams about new business trends. Marketing teams were ambushed about social media. Research teams were ambushed about big data. Design teams were ambushed about design thinking. Now anyone involved with data or strategy will be ambushed about forecasting.

Most employees don’t make predictions. Instead, they conclude findings with recommendations. It’s rare that they say, “there’s a 82% chance that such-and-such will happen”. This is for the same reason TV pundits give vague predictions, or walk them back after they don’t happen. The last thing people want to be is wrong. The New Fortune Tellers aren’t afraid of this. If an event has an 80% chance of happening, it also has a 20% chance of not happening.

Business is big gamble, so it’s fitting to put odds on outcomes. Putting odds on the success of a project puts new projects on even footing. Now cost can be considered alongside the odds of success. Further, it leads to the creation of contingency plans if the project goes sideways.

There’s also the benefit of predicting external events. Market disruptions are a business leader’s bane. The new breed of forecasters can help a company navigate the unknown.

I don’t imagine this will become a separate field or title, but forecasters will be very valuable to more businesses. In the era of disruption, the New Fortune Tellers provide a road map that doesn’t have to be redrawn every quarter.