Viewer’s Guide to World Cup 2018 (Part 4)
Round of 16
One way to think about the Round of 16 is as 4 groups of 4 teams, each producing a semi-finalist via single elimination. Here is the Round of 16 broken down that way (former World Cup winners in bold):
If two of the last Group Stage matches had gone a bit differently (basically Germany taking Mexico’s place, and England taking Belgium’s), we could have had one of the most unbalanced brackets ever, with 6 former World Cup winners (with 15 out of the 20 trophies) on one side of the draw. But the football gods reasserted themselves, and Germany died to give us a slightly more balanced knockout round.
While at first glance several of these brackets look weak, none ranks among weakest Round of 16 brackets in the 32-team era, a distinction that probably belongs to the Uruguay-Korea-USA-Ghana one in 2010 or the Sweden-Senegal-Japan-Turkey one in 2002. And some of the big names in the “hard” bracket haven’t exactly played up to potential. If we don’t see any upsets, we are looking at France v. Brazil and Spain v. England in the semi-finals. That is just fine by me.
I’m sure all of these Round of 16 matches will be fun to watch on some level, but there is a pretty wide gap in quality among them. I’ll grade them all, in descending order of entertainment value. TL:DR — watch Saturday’s games:
France v. Argentina (6/30 7am Pacific)
On paper, this is the best match of the Round of 16. I’m really looking forward to watching Messi and Ngolo Kante go at it. While this may not be a very open match, with so many great players on both sides, and such high stakes, this should be a compelling watch.
Argentina saved their tournament with two world class goals against Nigeria: Messi’s astonishing control and finish in the 14th minute, and the 86th minute stunner by defender Marcos Rojos — one of the emotional high points of the tournament so far. But Argentina’s utter joy and relief after each of those goals spoke to the fact that their place in the Round of 16 was in doubt for much of the match. Nigeria’s equalizer soon after halftime put Argentina back in the elimination zone for 35 agonizing minutes, and Nigeria had several chances at a second goal to effectively end things. Even after Rojos’ goal, the Croatia v. Iceland match was tied 1:1 into the 90th minute — a late goal could have sent Iceland through instead of Argentina on goal difference.
So don’t assume that Argentina are now contenders because they squeaked past Nigeria and Iceland for second place. Argentina have not played a consistently good game of football yet at the World Cup, and their managerial chaos does not seem resolved. But they do have Messi, one of the three greatest scorers in the world, and they finally used him to good effect as a free-roaming second striker against Nigeria, rather than as a midfield playmaker.
France, meanwhile, continued to look like a bunch of great players in search of a plot. Their last group match was a soulless 0:0 draw with Denmark to capture first place in the group — easily the worst game of the tournament. They barely beat Australia and Peru. France’s defending has been terrific, but they have a problem on attack: the interplay between their flair strikers Giroud and Griesmann, who don’t pass to one another and who don’t manage the space in front of goal with much purpose. Things start to click for France when Pogba or Mbappé create off the dribble. Remarkably, Mbappé’s goal against Peru was France’s only goal from open play in the Group Stage. Grade: A-
Uruguay v. Portugal (6/30 11am Pacific)
Don’t sleep on Uruguay. Yes, they won all three matches in the tournament’s easiest group, but they didn’t concede and their 5 goals came from well-earned chances : 5.0 (+1 OG) xG. They are in control of their demons for a change, but they haven’t been pushed, and Portugal’s antagonists will push them. As always, Portugal are riding Ronaldo’s finishing (and, delightfully, Quaresma’s). This one feels pretty even, and could easily take extra time to decide. Is Suarez + Cavani > Ronaldo? Grade: B+
England v. Colombia (7/3 11am Pacific)
This one is going to be good. These are both fast, fun teams with lots of quality and attacking intention. England have an uncharacteristally young, talented team liberated from a generation of aging warhorses who couldn’t win a knockout game (England have won only 2 Round of 16 matches in the last 20 years, and went out in the quarter-finals both times). They have a cool coach in Gareth Southgate who actually seems to connect with his players. Harry Kane is a great captain for this era and for this group of teammates. England fans have had to invent nonsense like Raheem Sterling’s bad finishing to obsess about because they can’t believe their good fortune that everything else seems to be going so well.
This match may turn on the status of Colombian star James Rodriguez’s calf muscle. He subbed off in the 31st minute against Senegal — his injury seemed to limit his movement and the quality of his touches. He was incredibly influential for the full 90 minutes in Colombia’s victory over Poland, and only played the last half hour of Colombia’s loss to Japan. If James is fit to play against England, this could be a really competitive match. If not, advantage to England. Grade: B+
Brazil v. Mexico (7/2 7am Pacific)
Mexico got the gift of a lifetime when Korea beat Germany, sending El Tri to the knockouts despite a traumatic 3:0 loss to Sweden, an epic failure that should have been the end of their tournament. How does Mexico react as a team to being both disappointed in their performance and happy with the ultimate result? If it brings the team together and gives them focus and energy (like the cruel loss to Germany clearly did for Sweden), Mexico have a slim chance to upset Brazil. Mexico have played well on the counter, and Brazil will have a lot of possession in this match. But if Mexico respond to the Sweden loss with in-fighting, frustration, and quibbling over tactics and team selection, Brazil will play Mexico off the pitch. While Brazil have not looked like a championship team yet at this tournament, it will still take Mexico’s best to beat them. Grade: B+
Croatia v. Denmark (7/1 11am Pacific)
Croatia were really good in the Group Stage, but also a bit lucky. They caught a youthful Nigeria at their most naïve, decimated a peak-chaos Argentina, and edged a desperate Iceland with a solid performance by reserves in a game they didn’t have to win. They over-achieved their chance creation (3.7 xG, +1 penalty, +1 OG) with 7 goals scored. Their midfield was creative and they were solid in defense — holding their opponents scoreless for the first 256 minutes of the tournament. Denmark, on the other hand, are decent; solid but unremarkable. For me, Peru were more deserving of this spot in the last 16 than Denmark, and purely from an entertainment perspective I can’t help but think they would have made this a more compelling watch. I’d be surprised if Croatia don’t win this match relatively easily. Grade: B
Sweden v. Switzerland (7/3 7am Pacific)
Sweden may be good. They edged Korea on a penalty, lost to Germany after playing well for 95 minutes, and crushed Mexico. Sweden are a classic Nordic side: athletic, good in the air, lined up in a vanilla 4–4–2, with a long-ball/counter-attacking style. Switzerland may also be good. They went unbeaten in their group, but the emotional win over Serbia was a bit of an outlier — they rode their luck in draws with Brazil and Costa Rica. I can already hear the “dark horse” bandwagon revving up for them. I’m not so sure. Nothing against Switzerland, but it’s going to be painful to watch Shaqiri firing shots from outside the box at the Swedish back four. If there is a 0:0 draw that goes to penalties, this is probably the match. Grade: B
Belgium v. Japan (7/2 11am Pacific)
Unfortunately, we have Japan in this match instead of the far more interesting Senegal because of the FIFA Fair Play tie-breaker, which sent the better-behaved Japanese through on fewer accumulated yellow cards after Japan and Senegal were deadlocked on the first six tie-breakers. If Japan had gotten one more yellow card against Poland and Senegal one less against Colombia, they would have drawn lots for this spot in the knockout round.
Japan is outclassed here — perhaps only Spain v. Russia is a bigger mismatch. Belgium are one of the most talented teams in the tournament, and to the extent they have weaknesses, they are not necessarily ones Japan can exploit. Belgium are younger, bigger, faster and more skillful. Japan can pass well, and can try to break up the flow enough to force this to extra time and penalties, but I don’t think that’s likely. Feels like 2:0 for Belgium, unless they lose focus looking ahead to the quarter-finals. Grade: B-
Spain v. Russia (7/1 7am Pacific)
Morocco showed us that Spain can be vulnerable to a creative, attacking team. Unfortunately, Russia are not that team. While the host country boost is real, Russia aren’t very good, and unlike Korea in 2002, Russia faces quality European opponents playing in Europe. Spain are a big step up in skill and tactics from any team Russia has faced so far, and remember that Russia was badly beaten by Uruguay. The only wildcard is that Spain let in a lot of goals in the Group Stage and a Russian goal might bring the crowd into it. This could be 5:0 if a motivated Spain pick apart Russia’s ponderous defense, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Spain end up grinding out a one goal win with 75% possession. Grade: B-
