Viewer’s Guild to World Cup 2018 (Part 2)
Group Stage Round Two
Round one is in the books. While there was plenty for football nerds to chew on, there were two truly remarkable games for neutrals: Portugal v. Spain and Germany v. Mexico. Some of the big pre-tournament favorites (Argentina, France, Brazil, Germany, and England) either dropped points or left it late, and certainly looked vulnerable. Some of the hipster dark horses (Egypt, Morocco, Peru, Colombia) also failed to get results. Will first round overachievers see their good fortune reversed? These six matches will have a lot of impact on how the groups sort out:
Russia v. Egypt (6/19 11am Pacific)
Russia sits at the top of Group A after destroying Saudi Arabia 5:0 on opening day. Was Russia good or was Saudi Arabia just very, very bad? Certainly the latter; seriously, Saudi Arabia were an embarrassment. And maybe Russia has just enough pieces in place to punish a weak team having a terrible game, in a packed home stadium (including Vladimir Putin). Meanwhile, Egypt gambled and tried to steal a point from Uruguay without Mo Salah, and to be fair it worked for 89 minutes. But Gimenez’s last-minute goal from a carelessly-conceded free kick left Egypt with nothing to show for their efforts except a few more days’ rest for Salah’s shoulder.
All that makes this a must-win game for Egypt, and, if Salah is back (reports conflict about whether he’s fit), a potentially winnable one. Russia, with a massive +5 in the goal difference tie-breaker, are fine with a draw. I’m expecting a physical game from both sides — these teams committed a combined 34 fouls in their first matches. Grade: B
Portugal v. Morocco (6/20 5am Pacific)
By far the best match of the first match day was Portugal 3:3 Spain. Gus Hiddick on Fox said it felt like a semi-final. It reminded me of Game 1 of the NBA finals, with Spain in the role of the Warriors and Ronaldo as LeBron. Despite giving up the early penalty and despite De Gea’s blunder, Spain looked like one of the top teams in the tournament, scoring three terrific goals while strangling huge stretches of the match with precise short passing. But Ronaldo got the point for Portugal through 90 minutes of astonishing individual effort and cleverness.
With the draw, both teams sit below an unlikely Iran in the Group B table, after Iran beat Morocco 0:1 with an injury time own goal. Morocco’s only hope, and it is a slim one (a 6% chance of making it out of the group, according to FiveThiryEight), is to beat Portugal. I’m just not sure they have it in them from what I saw against Iran. I’d be particularly concerned about their vulnerability to counter-attacks from Ronaldo. Might be fun to watch either way. Grade: B
France v. Peru (6/21 8am Pacific)
France was a bit of a mystery going into the tournament. Despite having one of the deepest and most talented squads, they also played with a troubling lack of urgency and cohesion. They were mediocre at best in a 2:1 win over Australia, and but for the VAR-initiated Griesmann penalty and the flukey 80th minute deflected Pogba rainbow that barely cleared the line as an own goal, we might be wondering if France make it out of the group.
Peru were better than their 0:1 loss to Denmark, particularly when Paolo Guerrero finally subbed on in the 63rd minute. Cueva’s bizarre run up and penalty miss cost Peru a precious point, and now they need a result against France. If Peru can bring energy and pace, they could catch the French out. Grade B
Argentina v. Croatia (6/21 11am Pacific)
Like France, Argentina did not look very coherent in their opening game against Iceland, which ended 1:1 after a dreadful Messi penalty miss. Hard to say Argentina were unlucky — they made their own trouble and Iceland played disruptive football to perfection. It was a great point for Iceland, who can now imagine making it out of the group. That said, I wouldn’t recommend you watch Nigeria v. Iceland, unless you are a completionist or you are supporting one of those teams.
Croatia coasted to a 2:0 win over Nigeria in a really boring game that was over by halftime. Nigeria never looked dangerous, and couldn’t create anything in the final third. Croatia passed well and controlled the game, but only managed to score from an own goal and a penalty. This could be a difficult game for both teams. Slight edge to Argentina, who badly need the points. Messi may have something to prove after the GOAT performance by Ronaldo against Spain. But this feels like a tense tactical draw. Grade B+
Serbia v. Switzerland (6/22 11am Pacific)
With Serbia’s win over Costa Rica and Switzerland’s draw with Brazil, Group E has gotten more complicated. Brazil is no longer guaranteed a first-place finish, and this match between Serbia and Switzerland takes on even more significance. If Switzerland wins, they control the group going into a final match with Costa Rica. If Serbia win they could then play for a draw against Brazil rather than needing an unlikely win. A draw here favors Switzerland.
Serbia was dull against Costa Rica, with the exception of some interplay between Sergej Milinković-Savić and Mitrovic, and the brilliant Kolarov free kick that produced the winning goal. Switzerland played Brazil very well, and even had chances to win the game at times. They neutralized Brazil’s pace and skill with tough tackling and counter-attacks. These are good teams, but from what I saw in the first round, I don’t expect lot of goals in this one. Grade: B
Poland v. Colombia (6/24 11am Pacific)
Group H was just as unpredictable as it seemed before the tournament, with both favorites dropping points in the first matches. Colombia lost 1:2 to a determined Japan in an exciting game. Considering their best player, James Rodriguez, sat out the first hour with a calf injury, and considering they played with 10 men for 90 minutes after an early penalty and straight red card, they didn’t look terrible. Still, in this highly competitive group, a loss to one of the weaker teams is a serious problem, and Colombia cannot afford another loss if they want to move on to the knock-out rounds.
Poland also lost 1:2 to a talented Senegal. They gave up an own goal and had a ludicrous mix up where an injured Senegal player was prematurely waived onto the field by the referee, took the ball off a surprised Polish keeper, and put it in the net. Robert Lewandowski, who led all European goal scorers in qualifying with 18, and who is arguably the most in-form striker in the World Cup, couldn’t come up with a goal. At full strength, Poland and Colombia are two excellent attack-minded teams, and given the desperate circumstances they find themselves in at this World Cup, this should make for an entertaining match. Grade B+
