Thoughts on the 2016 Minnesota GOP Primary

Already, many pixels have been spilled about the Minnesota Primary elections this past Tuesday. In recent cycles, press coverage has included process complaints and general kvetching with almost as much focus as the actual horse-race coverage of winning and losing. But the primary elections on Tuesday, not only determined who will be on the ballot in November, but also set the Party and broader Republican ecosystem on a trajectory to the 2018 elections.

The Minnesota System
In Minnesota, there is a caucus held in February March, which elects delegates. Those delegates convene at relevant local conventions in the next 2 months and “endorse” a candidate for office. That candidate then goes through an August open primary which actually gets them on the ballot for the general election in November. This happens in Presidential years and midterms as well and doesn’t impact the Presidential race, just runs parallel alongside it. It’s a convoluted system, but not unlike similar systems in North Dakota, Iowa, Maine, and other far northern states.

Turnout
Turnout for Minnesota GOP primaries has declined since 1990(the year of the legendary Grunseth/Carlson GOP gubernatorial primary). Smart political operatives who are running primary campaigns in Minnesota, have and will, bet on low turnout. The electorate is almost exclusively made up of the highest propensity voters- people who turn out for odd-year municipals, and special elections, that kind of thing.

I’ve been repeatedly baffled the last two cycles as campaigns attempted, in scattershot and largely illusory ways, to “expand the primary electorate.” Republican campaigns which bet on being able to add tens of thousands of votes to the largely static primary electorate through only their own efforts will always fall short.

MNGOP Endorsement Romps

For two cycles, campaign consultants and non-endorsed campaigns have attempted to cast aspersions against the Party endorsement and Party endorsed candidates.

After two cycles, the verdict is in- the Party endorsement matters.

Every single MNGOP endorsed candidate won their primary election on Tuesday night. This included the endorsed Speaker of the State House, and this included the endorsed challenger to a longtime House committee chairman. This included relative unknown candidates in CD7 and SD64, and it included the broadly popular CD6 Congressman Tom Emmer against token opposition.

Since the 2012 elections, after a historic implosion of the state Party infrastructure and dramatic re-shuffling of the dynasty of state party officials in power, there has been a clear effort to undermine the perceived value of the endorsement. The Miller campaign in particular this cycle attempted to turn the Party endorsement into a negative and it failed spectacularly. Not necessarily as an angry rebuke by voters, but with a shrug and a turn.

This has been the case since the legendary 1990 gubernatorial primary battle between Grunseth and Carlson. In “There Is No November”, the fascinating campaign memoir from high ranking Grunseth campaign officials, it’s lucidly described how Carlson attempted to cast the Party endorsement as the work of “insiders” working against the popular interest during the primary. Then, as now, that is not an argument that resonates with MNGOP primary voters.

This of course could change. Under a Chairman who refuses to even nominally back up the Party endorsement in contested races, perhaps a Chairman who even worked to undermine the endorsement, this could certainly change.

But while no one knows what the future holds, what we do have are two cycles of primaries with endorsed candidates who have collectively won over 90% of their races. The empirical evidence is in- endorsement matters.

Eye on 2018
Much of the chess-piece moving and chit gathering in 2016 MNGOP circles largely centers around the 2018 midterms, which will feature a vacant governor’s mansion and all state constitutional offices, in addition to the Minnesota House and what could be a very steep climb for US Senate.

Smart campaigns and operatives will learn the lessons of the last two primary cycles and go on to win in 2018. Others, clinging to pre-conceived notions, personal grudges, & self-serving contrived narratives, will obstinately refuse.

The pathway for governor in 2018 is clear. Win statewide endorsement, or as a back-up contest it heavily enough to hang the convention and prevent endorsement altogether. Run a playbook primary campaign targeted at the small slice of the electorate that reliably votes in MNGOP primaries. Leverage a vigorous primary run into general election success through list building and voter ID and defeat the liberal Democrat for Governor in 2018. Raise money, talk to the right voters at the right times, work absentee/early voting hard encourage unity up and down ticket, and win.

With the stakes being so high for Minnesota Republicans in 2018, we can ill afford to let petty differences and personal vendettas stand in the way of what could be an amazing state level victory. We can ill afford to let a bunker mentality set in among Republican political staff either.

MP