NFL 2013: MNF WK 10 Miami (-2.5) at Tampa Bay

Another rousing Monday Night Football game. I cannot wait to sit down and take this one in. Miami is currently 4-4 and in 3rd place in the AFC East. Tampa Bay is a wretched mess, now the only winless team in the NFL at 0-8. What a great matchup — so excited to watch anything other than this on a Monday night. What a great way to salute the troops — with a terrible, horrible, awful, piece of junk football game.

Sometimes gambling is easy. On the surface you have a .500 team going against a semi-pro psychiatrist’s mess. You have a quasi-competitive Dolphins team coming off a long week with a Thursday night win against a division leading Bengals team. The Dolphins have the 19th offensive DVOA and the 12th defensive DVOA.

With Tampa Bay you have a big pile of crap. They are terrible. They are miserable to watch. No one on the team seems to want to be there. The coach appears to be an egomaniac with little understanding of NFL coaching techniques. The starting QB was cut. The starting RB is on injured reserve. They are, without a doubt, an abject mess that deserves less time than we have already spent on them.

However, they are ranked 22nd in offensive DVOA and 17th in defensive DVOA. If you notice, that is only 3 behind the Dolphins in offense and 5 in defense. The difference is large, but not enormous. Perhaps this game will be closer than expected.

Perhaps not. Stay away from the Bucs. They are danger. They are terror. They are just horrible to watch. I weap for their fans, if there are any willing to admit it right now.

Then again, while they are 0-8, they have covered the spread twice this year. In week 2 against the Saints the Bucs lost 16-14 and covered. In week 9 they lost to the Seahawks 27-24 and covered. So, while they don’t have a win, I guess you can say they have precedent in covering at least occasionally this year (25%). That is something.

Also, they have played some close games this year. If it weren’t for a late hit at the end of the game, they would have beaten the Jets in week 1. As mentioned above, they only lost by 2 to the Saints in week 2. They lost by 3 to the Cardinals in week 4. And again with Seattle last week. They have played some close games lately.

Maybe this isn’t that easy. I mean, Glennon has looked okay at times. In the season of multiple quarterbacks, backup QBs have looked somewhat decent this year, as opposed to completely inept in past years. Maybe there is something to these Bucs.

When you take into account that the Jaguars…THE JAGUARS…somehow won today, it seems less implausible to bet on the Bucs. The Jags of the 29-27 victory over the Titans. The Titans who lost their starting QB (again) Jake Locker (likely) for the season. But still, a win is a win, especially for a team that looked hopeless most of the season.

But we are getting off topic. Just because the Jags won doesn’t mean the Bucs can win. But I feel some good, nonsensical, unhelpful points have been made in this discussion. Perhaps you should take the hapless Schianos. Maybe the team will step up for their coach, right the ship, turn the season around, and save his job.

Or maybe you should just take the Dolphins, give the points, and avoid what continues to a horrific Monday Night Football schedule. It’s a holiday — do something fun, like avoiding watching the Bucs in prime time. Maybe you could catch up on the DVR or gamble on and watch one of the 9 NBA games, 48 NCAA basketball games, horses, or a flag football intramural game. Just don’t watch or take the Bucs. Don’t do it. Even if you win, you will hate yourself in the morning.