NFL 2013: WK 11 49ers @ Saints (-3)

Give the Points. 

The 49ers (6-3) go to New Orleans to play the Saints (7-2) in the second best scheduled game of the day. Unless you are seeing things through rose-colored glasses, take the home team, give the miniscule points, and start examining other games.

For those willing to take a closer look, the Saints are having a very good season with their only two losses coming to the AFC East (Patriots and Jets). The Jets loss is a little painful at first glance, but every team is allowed a hiccup now and then. Also, the Sexy Super Rexys (5-4) defense played extremely well in that game and while so many people have made fun of the Jets this year (and with the Sanchez preseason, it was warranted), they have actually put together a pretty good season with that defense.

The Saints always look and seem to play better at home. They have yet to lose at home this season in 5 games, with their closest and lowest scoring game coming in week 1 against a not yet destroyed by injury and other issues Falcons team, winning 23-17. The Saints Offense DVOA ranks #2 overall, with a pass rank of 3 and a run rank of 20. Drew Brees is having an amazing season with a 68% completion, 25 TDs to 7 INTs, a rating of 108.9, and an average yards per attempt of 8.44.

And with Drew Brees you get to throw to Jimmy Graham, which might be the best connection in the NFL since Brady to Welker. Graham has 10 TDs on the year, averaging 14.9 yards per catch, and 12 20+ catches this year. That is just one of the many weapons the Saints have on offense, including others like Marques Colston, Darren Sproles, and the recently inspiring Kenny Stills. This offense is built to move the ball in huge chunks, score quick, and put the game away early. New Orleans defense isn’t bad either, ranking #12 in Defense DVOA.

As for the 49ers, this season has felt different from last year. They still have a good record at 6-3 and they still look like a playoff team. Last year we saw Kaepernick take over the reigns of the offense and run to a NFC championship. This season the overall play has seemed less effective, with the team sitting in second place in the division behind the 9-1 Seahawks. The passing game is struggling, coming in at dead last in the league in passing yards at 173.9 per game.

The rushing game has made up for the deficiency through the air, coming in at 4th in the league at 147.7 ypg. They have relied heavily on Kaepernick’s and Gore’s feet to win games as the receiving core has been injured or missing. We could spend more time talking about how the 49ers offense isn’t what it was last year, but they are pretty decent this year as #9 in Offense DVOA.

The bigger problem in New Orleans will be the 49ers defense. They are #11 in defense DVOA, and 11th and 13th in pass and run, respectively. The 49ers are really going to have play exceptional defense to keep the 49ers offense in this game. The 49ers are averaging 25.2 points per game while the Saints come in at 29.4. Add in the fact that Vernon Davis is questionable, and you really begin to wonder if the 49ers can keep up with the Saints this week. This game will come down to how well the 49ers defense can play against Drew Brees. With FS Eric Reid, RE Justin Smith, and LE Ray McDonald questionable, it will be a tall task.

If you make the eye test, you see the 49ers have struggled this season against good teams, like the Panthers, Colts, and Seahawks. Arguably, the only good team the 49ers have beaten all season is the Packers in Week 1. That was a long time ago.

PICK: With all the discussion, take the Saints and give the points at home. As a matter of fact, you may want to wager more on this one than normal, throwing down five hundos. So we will:

$500 on the Saints (-3)