NFL: Hardest Bet of the Week
Week 10
Its week 10 and finding the hardest bet of the week was surprisingly difficult. There were several lines to choose from including:
After spending a long time analyzing the games and the lines I felt the hardest bet of the week is Cincinnati (-1.5) at Baltimore. It might be a little surprising (or completely off the charts surprising) to many of you that this is the hardest bet of the week,but it is and here’s why.
First, look at Baltimore’s rushing attack. One could argue in previous seasons Ray Rice carried the offense. Well, in 2013 the Baltimore rushing attack is not holding up its end of the deal, coming in at 30 out of 32 on Football Outsider’s rushing rank through week 9. If you think the ranking looks low, then you haven’t watched many Ravens games this year, because the number is higher than I would have expected.
So that makes it an easy pick — Cincinnati and the points! Not exactly since the Bengals are now dealing with a gaping hole in the center of the defense. With Geno Atkins tearing his ACL against the Dolphins, the Bengals have to play next man up in replacing arguably the Defensive Player of the Year to this point.
In his place the Bengals turn to Domata Peko and Devon Still. Peko is a very good, if not dominant run-stopping DT; however, how much of his positive results came because he was playing next to Atkins is unknown. Still has already missed a couple of games with an injury and might not be able to play this week. Suddenly the Bengals rush defense (currently 7 of 32 DVOA) has a very big hole to fill in the center of the line. A bad rushing offense against a suddenly unknown rushing defense makes this pick a little more interesting.
Second, Baltimore has been very sporadic this year, with 5 losses to the Browns, Steelers, Packers, Bills, and Broncos. Per Sagarin rankings, the Ravens have had the 12th hardest schedule this season.
Obviously the Broncos and the Packers (pre-Rodgers injury) are very good teams and the Broncos game was on the road, so those losses are easier to swallow. As miserable as the Browns have been (or still are?), those 2 divisional games between the new Browns and the former Browns were always hard-hitting and relatively close, albeit usually in favor of the Ravens. The Bills have shown some spark and fight this year and are underrated with E.J. Manuel under center. But the loss to the Steelers is a very tough pill to swallow.
Then again, the Ravens beat the Dolphins, Texans, and Browns. We talked about the Browns and the Texans have struggled this year with or without Schaub, but they are a respectable team. The Dolphins actually look pretty good and just beat the Bengals.
We look at the Bengals schedule and see losses to the Bears, Browns, and Dolphins. At the time the Browns loss was pretty bad, but has lessened over the weeks (at least when Weeden is on the bench).
With wins over the Jets, Lions, Bills, Patriots, Packers, and Steelers the Bengals look like the better team, but those games come with some caveats. The Bengals lost a 14 point lead and had to beat the Bills in overtime. They used a first half blocked field goal for a 10 point swing against the Lions. They beat the Patriots 13-6 in hurricane-like conditions. They had four turnovers against the Packers (but received four as well).
Third, it is a division game that Baltimore has to win if they want to have any chance at the playoffs. Say what you want about emotion, stress, and heart, but past Baltimore squads have shown grit, heart, and ability to overcome adversity on marches to the playoffs.
Historically, the Bengals are known for being somewhat better than the Browns in the division, but still playing second fiddle to the Ravens and Steelers in recent years.
In the end, you really should take Cincinnati and the -1.5. There is no way you can reliably take the Ravens, even at home, at 3-5 against the 6-3 division leading Bengals. The Atkins injury might make it more difficult for the Bengals in the first half. But the Bengals should be able to overcome that missing piece this week to defeat the third place Ravens in Baltimore. Do not let this small line deter you from taking the Bengals and running with it, even with the Atkins injury.
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