Dusan Vlahović, The long journey
There are some players you don’t forget, because of an attitude, a smile, a celebration, a control, a shoot.
Dusan Vlahovic reminds us of the great era of 2000s strikers, obsessed with this idea to be in the right position at the right time, no second chance, true realism.
No second chance, that is probably what forged Dusan’s behavior. He grew up in a complicated background, after Yugoslavia war in the 90s. His family had to run away, many times.
Losing his brother has been a horrible hammer blow for him, but unsurprisingly, Dusan used all these tragical moments as a motivation source to make his family proud.
Knowing you got raised in such an environment, how could you be afraid of being a professional player and facing hostile stadiums?
PARTIZAN BELGRADE: A gladiator is flourishing
He joins Partizan Belgrade in 2014, and signs a professional contract just one year later, when he was only 15 years old. Everything went fast, without letting Dusan some time to digest it and appreciate being a teenager. He was already an adult, with a strong mentality. No transition.
However, he could have developed many complex due to his young age. Under Ivan Tomic, Partizan first team coach in 2016, when he decided to give Dusan the number 9. Already.
Therefore, he has never been afraid to take responsibilities. In February 2016, he made his debuts against Beograd, becoming the youngest debutant in Partizan’s history.
And how about the next game? The Eternal Derby, right? Not even afraid. He became the youngest player in the Belgrade derby. During that game, he never let fear coming out of his eyes. Everything seemed to be calm, he had a mission, he had to complete it. Hostility from opponent supporters didn’t disturb him, even if he was only 16.
With U15 selection, he already scored 22 goals. Dusan didn’t have the choice: in this world, he doesn’t have the time to appreciate success. He knew how hard it is to make sacrifices, because of his childhood.
The Serbian striker was conscious his performances will get the attention of many European clubs, especially Fiorentina. Pantaleo Covino, former Fiorentina Sports Director, spot Dusan in 2017. The link between Serbia and Fiorentina is strong, many flashbacks of Jovetic incredible goals and the great memories he left in Firenze. Covino had another advantage in negotiations: Jovetic was Dusan’s idol when Stefan was playing for Partizan.
FIORENTINA: Ready to start the show in the arena
No second chance. These three words have been guiding Dusan’s life since the beginning. He felt this opportunity to succeed in a club where tifosi have admired many legendary strikers (Batistuta, Luca Toni).
It was too hard for Partizan to hold him back. As soon as Dusan arrived, he preferred to play in La Primavera Team, as he will get more playing time. Stefano Pioli was agreed with his decision, and scored 20 goals for his debuts, including one legendary goal in Cup Final against Torino.
Vlahovic was already marking the difference with his teammates. He has this hardworking mentality, always asking more practice after training sessions, mor workout sessions… he is an improvement obsessed. Cyril Théréau, his former Fiorentina teammate until 2020, told once Stefano Pioli shouted him to train his muscles too much (SoFoot, 3–12–21). Dusan can be associated with self-confidence, due to what he went through, but not arrogance.
To conclude this first part, Dusan is someone that forged his philosophy in a war background, going through terrible tragedies, that gave him this protection against daily life unpredicted events.
Everything went fast for him. Too fast. This is in that context he learned how to be patient and take the opportunity to be at the right place, at the right moment. Because in Dusan’s journey, there is no second chance. One shot, one opportunity as someone said.
Does this reflects in his way of play, and in his databases? Let’s dive into the analysis and see if his story shines in his behavior on the pitch.
GOALS ANALYSIS: ONE SHOT, ONE OPPORTUNITY: NO SECOND CHANCE
Dusan is a goal obsessed. That is a fact. However, between 2019 and 2021, there was a concrete evolution concerning the way he scores goals.
Let’s focus on the way he has been creating goals opportunities, and how he has been executing them.
2019–2020: Start central and make runs into the wide areas
Dusan started his first Fiorentina minutes under Vincenzo Montella. Former Roma striker arrived in Firenze at the same time than new owners, Commisso family. The Italian coach implemented an intelligent mercato, by hiring experienced players (Dalbert as a fullback, Kevin Prince Boateng, the return of Franck Ribery), and relied on the two diamonds from La Primavera: Feredico Chiesa and Dusan Vlahovic.
Montella designed a 3–5–2, with Chiesa and Ribery upfront. Dusan will have the chance to get more as Ribery was frequently injured.
The Serbian striker had a specific role in that system. Fiorentina rarely had ball control and worked with strong vertical transitions with Pulgar as the conductor, Castrovili sliding into number 10 (a bit like Barella during his 1st Inter year). Dusan had to start his runs from central space to deport into the wide blue zone shown in the following picture. Then, back inside and use his speed to provoke 1V1 and shoot.
If we analyze all his open play goals, we can see a tactical evolution in his moves to get into the penalty box.
As we said earlier, Dusan had to take width first from a central position, then to come back inside.
Here, against Napoli, Dusan took the advantage on Di Lorenzo’s jump on Lirola, he penetrated space created and took width, constraining Luperto to follow him…
…And create a potential diagonal run for Chiesa. Thanks to his run, Vlahovic could fix his opponent, coming back inside, and address a wonderful shot, unstoppable. His shooting is one of his greatest skills, illustrating a clinical execution.
A similar situation against Sampdoria to showcase the importance to attack that specific zone, even if this situation is not a vertical transition, but a possession phase in Sampdoria’s final third.
The aim remains to force fullback to jump out and create space, but with another strategy: to take enough speed to make the defender think Dusan will switch on his left foot, and suddenly continue his run and cross with power.
During 2019–2020 season, Montella has been sacked due to bad results and a poor style of play given the squad he had at disposal. Giuseppe Iachini replaced him, with a unique objective to remobilize a good squad, with an obvious lack of confidence.
He decides to keep the tactical shape initiated by Montella, with a progressive insertion of Vlahovic in the starting XI.
He developed a particular sense of positioning in the penalty box, analyzing defender’s moves, if they implement an individual or zonal marking. In the zonal marking case, he can stay in his initial position, to receive the cross.
Here is a typical example. A Cagliari back 4 defending with a zonal marking, to prevent any dangerous jump in from Fiorentina strikers.
Then, he ends up in a position he loves, that specific zone of penalty box, ideal to take a shot from his left foot.
In cross situation, Dusan analyzes cross’ trajectory. It will influence his behavior in the penalty box. In case of first post’s cross, he dives into the penalty box to hit the ball. In case of the second post’s cross (the most interesting situation), he prefers to stay in his initial position, knowing his teammate (here Caceres) will address a back pass.
The interval between him and central defender was bigger, because central defender thought he would have jumped into the penalty box. This allowed him to control and shoot with more time and space around him.
Opponents now knew Dusan’s role in final third was to take width as soon as possible, to suddenly change direction. Moreover, he also had this sense of positioning to know how to be at the right place, at the right moment… No second chance… One shot, one opportunity. I think I heard something like that before…
The Serbian is building a name across Serie A. Slowly, but surely. Teams created a variety of methods to to counter Dusan’s initial moves, and it has been efficient. Dusan has not scored during 12 games. Opponent’s teams densified the zone Dusan target with his runs. It consequently became harder for him to find solutions, passing angles, even shot opportunities.
But Dusan has faced far more difficult than this. The Eternal Derby, his brother… This player has an incredible mental force, to rebound after each failure, even when the first negative articles were flourishing progressively across Italy.
Iachini, and after him Mancini, initiated a relevant tactical change for Dusan in his positioning. Abandon his diagonal runs, replaced by vertical runs from central spaces. This was interesting, as Fiorentina built-up from its own defensive third, to aspire opponent’s pressing.
Defenders were surprised concerning his high speed, and his ability to repeat progressive runs, with the ball. Against Inter, he received a pass, automatically move straight forward, and Boateng’s duplicated run helped him to continue his race, central, and not in direction of lanes: straight to the goal.
Ending up into that zone before a shot seems to be a real tendency, many of his shots are taken from here (we will study a little closer on his data analysis part).
Dusan also knows how to start his runs at the right time. He takes the information about how the defender is positioned, if central defender looks after the ball, how is he aligned with the defensive line. He knows every move from his opponent. He frequently utilizes that curved run to surprise his opponent and start his devastating run.
Another illustration here against Milan. In two seconds, Dusan analyzed if he has enough space in front of him to start his run, if the defender was looking at the ball (effectively yes, which illustrates wrong information taking). At this precise moment, Fiorentina vertical transitions through central lane can be initiated.
As we saw before, Vlahovic tactical aim was to attack width first, then to end up in central spaces. He has started to be more incisive when Iachini, and by extension Prandelli, gave him a central position in build-up and in transitions. He consequently could start his runs more efficiently, improved his explosiveness in the first 2 seconds, many runs have been devastating (goal against Genoa).
Central position means he also improved his space management into the penalty box. This is very hard for a striker, especially when he spent only two seasons in a top championship, to deal with the tiny space he has at disposal. We are living in a football era in which decision-making process becomes very short, especially for high-responsibilities positions (strikers).
Vlahovic has been constrained to develop a consequent sense of positioning according to what space he has around him, which will influence his decisions.
All depends on where comes the last pass. If it comes from a withdrawn position (as the photo illustrates, against Sampdoria), opponent’s defense will stay in a zonal marking, so very close space to negotiate. However, Dusan managed to receive that brilliant vertical pass and shoot properly.
If the pass comes from an overlap (from lanes, around penalty box), space management is different. Defense is more flexible as the danger does not arrive directly from a central area.
Vlahovic consequently manage to keep enough distance between two central defenders, to create doubt for both. Here, against Spezia, they should have said “who should man mark him”? This specific doubt moment is when Vlahovic takes positional advantage. As soon as overlap is being made, he knows where the ball will land, and decides to stick on Martin Erlic and turn around promptly to receive the pass (photo below).
Taking the time to analyze how defenders scan has also helped Dusan to increase his decision-making process. It became more efficient because he understood how defenders treated him.
As he isn’t considered as a threat in build-up, defenders only scan one or two times at most.
Then, he just had to jump behind the central defender to finish the offensive transition.
Vlahovic improved his efficiency through many sectors, but the most impressive improvement remains space management in final third. He has become one of the most interesting players to analyze concerning that tactical aspect.
After that goal analysis from Dusan Vlahovic, we can see that, no matter coach’s tactics, he prefers to strike from a specific zone of the penalty box (purple zone on the illustration). It was just the path to reach that area which has been different depending on tactics. At the beginning, Dusan had to slide into width to stretch defensive line and come back inside to shoot.
Prandelli and Vincenzo Italiano have offered him a central position, progressively. He had to change the way he thinks. Defenders knew how he moved towards spaces. They learned. Dusan had to think and decide fast. That is how his life always has been. He never had the time to overthink. And defenders never let him a second chance to score. His goals, and by extension the way he creates opportunities for midfielders to make incisive passes, shows us one fundamental point: Dusan’s life reflects on the pitch.
I think that is why I have been writing that piece. How about his way to play when Fiorentina is in possession?
BEHAVIOR IN BUILD-UP: Strong back to goal abilities, efficiency in passing channels.
Dusan has a concrete evolution in his way to play, concerning his moves and playing for the team. If we take a close look to his season heatmap, there is a consequent change of zones. Compared to 20–21, 21–22 illustrates this central repositioning from Dusan, split in 3 zones (mid third, offensive third, and the penalty box).
I decided to see how Dusan affects Fiorentina way of play in these three specific zones.
When I analyze a regular Vlahovic’s performance, I have always been surprised how developed is his back to goal game. Under Vincenzo Italiano, this role is key in build-up, because this drop off has many consequences.
First of all, it constrains one of the two central defenders (in charge of man-marking Vlahovic) to jump out, and potentially create a space behind for wingers (Nico Gonzalez-Callejon or Bonaventura). Second objective: as soon as the Serbian striker drops off, both #8 start to step aside in direction of wingers. Then, Dusan receives the pass from #6, and orientates his pass in width, so Fiorentina can create triangles in possession.
Third option from Italiano’s panel: Dusan drops off to keep the ball to automatically create a difference, through dribbles or shooting. Vlahovic has long-range shooting abilities, even if he didn’t score many goals outside penalty box.
As against Benevento, Dusan can receive progressive passes, keep the ball out of pressure, and if he keeps the ball in that offensive third zone, his teammates know he will attempt a shot.
Ribery consequently did a diagonal run, to aspire central defender and open a shot window for Vlahovic. Remember what I have said above, Dusan Vlahovic has 3 main activity zones. He plays a different back to goal depending on the zones he stands. In the offensive third as we can see from the picture above, he will be more likely to shoot.
In the penalty box (third zone where Dusan is moving the most), he tends to address passes for free teammates, which frequently transform into assists. Against Milan, this pass has cemented and excellent half from Fiorentina.
Against Milan, but last season (20–21), he also showed his ability to jump, with a different purpose. We all know Milan’s double pivot has close distances, Ribery positioned between them, Dusan took the information, and played a very interesting back pass for the French forward.
He developed a relevant passing pattern in the penalty box, especially under Vincenzo Italiano, which we will analyze in his data part.
Despite he’s been showcasing many back to goal qualities, there are still key pillars Dusan need to progress, to be more efficient. In possession, when he gets the ball with pressure nearby, he has a tendency to run straight towards goal without other thought. This is a strange deviation from his actions in the box, which includes loads of scanning.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1laSwTYYUABlrRWX7kajt_Jj2gQ4RQjIq/view?usp=drivesdk
That example illustrates his lack of scan on the ball, which led to many ball losses. That is one aspect he should work on, because his future coaches will ask him to participate more frequently in build-up. The more a coach demands of him, the more these problems might show through, but Dusan has showed his ability to adapt to changing circumstances.
To understand a bit more how Dusan’s way of play has evolved, we need to focus on each tactical insight from each coach he was playing for.
Vincenzo Montella had a solid 3–5–2, but he had a very specific role, without big responsibilities in build-up. When a team plays with a front 2, there is always someone who drives passing networks more than the other. He was playing alongside great players such as Ribery and Chiesa, who oversaw link up play.
Another important factor to consider under Iachini and Montella, Fiorentina didn’t control possession, and played in organized transitions. If you add the fact Vlahovic was not the main striker to link-up passing sequences, he worked on other aspects of his game during that period: space management, scan, run’s efficiency, and his shot.
Prandelli and Italiano abandoned systems with two forwards, because of respective departures from Ribery and Chiesa. Vlahovic had an opportunity to gain importance in Fiorentina passing channels. This is exactly what Italiano wanted to capitalize on. I designed two schemes which explain the evolution of Dusan in his participation in build-up.
However, we need to clarify one point: Dusan does not monopolize passing channels. When he receives the ball, it must be efficient : orientate in width, or playing intelligent negative passes.
Vlahovic is a link-up player, but not the way as a Lacazette or a Benzema embodies. His passes create direct chances for opponents, as the clip above I made illustrates. He won’t keep the ball in the offensive third and drive all passing channels. I don’t think Italiano gave him that role.
On the contrary, the Italian coach gave him responsibilities when he must pass the ball, because he receives the ball in dangerous positions for the opponent, as we will comment in his data report. Therefore, Fiorentina’s passing channels success highly depends on Dusan’s choice.
The most accurate way to define his passing role under Italiano.
I think we now have all the tools between our hands to try to understand how Dusan plays. Remember, he has this hard-working mentality in his veins, because he always wants to improve, and avoid failures. He experienced too many tragedies in his childhood, which he managed to transform into self-motivation. He preferred to play for La Primavera team to work on his panels, to progress. It utterly reflects on the pitch, how he developed patience to wait until the right moment to jump into spaces, to shoot, to orientate build-up sequences.
Pressure is not a word printed in his vocabulary, he experienced far worse than high expectations of professional football word.
He earned his place in starting XI thanks to meritocracy, and now he represents a player who knows how to play efficiently: through his passes, through his back to goal game, through his runs, through his shoot.
Do data confirm the tactical analysis above? Does Dusan receive many passes in build-up? Does he get success in his back to goal passes? Where does he receive the last passe before a shot?
Let’s confirm (or not) all our tactical explanations.
DATA ANALYSIS
First, I really wanted to thank Anmol and Mark, who were interested by that article and helped me to design data visuals, accurate ones to show efficiently Vlahovic’s features. Many talks to find the right strategy and how we can show efficient data, here are the results.
That graph shows us where Dusan touches the ball. We can confirm Dusan tended to step aside in direction of the right lane. As Vlahovic didn’t play the whole 21–22 season, the second heatmap is less representative than the first one, but we can see the right lane is less affected by Dusan’s touches. It coincides with what we have said earlier, Prandelli and Italiano having changed his role in possession.
How about progressive passes? I was curious to find out how many progressive passes Dusan has received and the location of these.
That visual tells us how Dusan is involved in Fiorentina’s build-up, not especially excessive, but quite enough. He also receives progressive passes from central areas, which explains many tactical aspects in build-up, especially when de drops off to receive a vertical pass. He receives progressive passes in his three zones we have identified on his heatmap earlier, therefore it matches with our previous analysis. He participates to Fiorentina’s progression in possession phase. Moreover, we can see he received half of his progressive passes in the zone he tends to shoot, as we saw above. This map is a good indicator to point out the vertical way of play from Vincenzo Italiano in final third, to target Dusan.
It is also important to point out the length of progressive passes. Italian teams use to play with longer passes, as defenses stay low and well-organized. In England, his potential next destination, progressive passes are shorter so he will have to adapt.
Does it correlate with passes he receives before a shot? Let’s dig into that point: the Serbian has preferred zones to end up with a shoot. As we have established, Dusan does not monopolize passing channels, but when he receives the ball, it must happen something.
The results we obtained with Anmol were in correlation with what I have spot for Dusan: he frequently ends passing channels in penalty box and shoot with efficiency. His shots position map is quite similar than the “receiving the last pass” one, it means Dusan doesn’t carry the ball too much before shooting. Probably because he knows he is now man-marked, spaces becoming consequently tight, which constrains Vlahovic to be efficient.
However, we established above that Dusan has different objectives when he plays back to goal, depending on its position: in final third, or inside penalty box. In that one, he tends to play for his teammates efficiently, with brilliant passes. The graph illustrates all his successful passes in penalty box from 21–22 season. The majority of his pass’s trajectory goes in the opposite of the goal, which means he developed an intelligent back to goal game, with key back to goal passes. Data confirmed what we have analyzed before.
The journey has been fascinating. To watch first, but also to analyze through that paper. Dusan Vlahovic has a story which defines his way of play, his mindset, his conviction. The Serbian is under the spotlights. All big clubs want to sign him in the next transfer windows. That is why the journey is far from being over. He went through various emotions, but life didn’t leave him the choice. He had to accept everything goes fast. He doesn’t have the time to take a step back.
His brother should be so proud of him from where he is. He is watching on him and giving enough strength to pursue and have no fear.
It reflects on the pitch: no matter the coach, tactics, opponent supporters, high pressure. He faced strong opposition, defenders who constantly reduced spaces, his teammates have offered so many chances to shine across Artemio Franchi, to bring joy for tifosi della Viola. He received the message that guided his whole life: no regrets, just do it, and do more.
As Eminem used to say, “If you have… One shot… Or one opportunity…. To seize everything you ever wanted…. In one moment, would you capture it… Or just let it slip?” (Lose Yourself).
