[Original posted at Michaelkalus.ca]

WHEREIN THE DELUSION CONTINUES

So it has been six weeks since Theresa May pulled the trigger and invoked Article 50. Good for her.

Since then though, things have gotten even more bizarre.

A strong mandate

Theresa May seems to think that if she gets a stronger majority it somehow would impress her counter parts in the EU somewhat more. She literally is going around telling people that they should vote for her so she has a stronger hand in Brussels.

Meanwhile the EU and European Leaders have said several times that, nein. Or to use the Empire’s language: No. It does not matter.

Why would it matter? Even if May would show up with only one vote more in her favour, it will not change the approach they will be taking. EU leaders, both for the EU institution as well as for other EU countries do not really care what May or her electorate want. They care about what their citizens want.

This is such a simple concept and yet, it seems something that clearly is not within the grasps of the Tory Government or their sympathetic press who keeps feeding people the line that a strong May in Brussels somehow magically makes all the wishes and dreams come true.

Everybody wants to deal with Britain

This is yet another one of those stories May and her acolytes keep telling the people. It reminds me of this:

Reality is that a lot of the appeal for the UK as a trade partner came from it being special within the EU and the fact that the EU regularly gave the UK special status and exceptions, not to mention that the UK regularly managed to block EU legislation. With the UK out of the EU though it can no longer act as a back door to the EU and thus, a lot of the appeal goes.

The Economy is doing better!

Ah yes, “Project Fear” is what the pro-leave side called it when people pointed out that there will be economical consequences for Britain if it should leave the EU. This is still being pushed away despite cracks appearing in the facade. With banks starting their first “testing” of new cities within the EU and other businesses starting to point out that not all may be as great as it seems.

So far this is still being pushed aside and Johnson et. al. still seem to think they somehow will be “better off outside”, even if they have no deal.

Also, let’s not forget that a lot of the manufacturing in the UK relies heavily on EU inputs, and not just because of JIT.

That “special relationship with the US”.

This is one of the most amusing things for me to watch. Last year before the referendum Obama waved a pretty big stick in front of the UK Government essentially telling them that if they leave the EU it would have an impact with the US. Not too surprising if you consider that the UK always was the proxy of the US in Europe. It allowed them to do all the things the US wanted to do but couldn’t really, mostly due to optics.

It’s also highly doubtful that a deal with the US would put the UK in a better position than it currently has with and within the EU.

We’re trading with the world

Why yes, yes you do. Only problem is that this is all through treaties negotiated by the EU, not by the UK. That means if the UK is out in 2019 without a deal, not only will the trade between the UK and the EU fall back on WTO rules but so will the UKs trade with every single other country out there.

The UK also cannot sign any new trade deals until it has left the EU, that would of course presume that they have the capacity to negotiate both the exit from the EU, the new relationship with the EU and any number of other trade agreements. Not to mention that if I’d be a trade partner with the UK I would make my signing contingent on whatever deal the UK strikes with the EU.

And this has just been the last six weeks, this promises to be an interesting two years and how this will end, well, your guess is as good as mine.

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