Let There Not Be No Alternatives!
Lessons from the 2023 Argentinian Elections
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Argentina’s politics has taken center stage in the past 48 hours. And I have received numerous calls asking for insights and feedback. I’ll share a few words, not my views, which have a limited interest, but simply reflecting on conversations I’ve had with numerous Argentinians from all walks of life in the past few weeks.
More importantly, at a time when oversimplification or sensationalism guide our public narrative and media outlets, I’m hoping that sharing a nuanced perspective will help our public debate, in Argentina or anywhere else, and highlight the enormous courage the Argentinian people showed on Sunday!
If far-right movements have been quick in congratulating Mr. Milei, welcoming him in the confederation of extremists, pointing at the inevitable, it’s on us to learn and reflect on the consequences of a failed state that for too long let its citizens agonize…
An impossible choice between a broken model offering more of the same or a quantum leap into the unknown… I was glad I did not have to choose. Most Argentinians I talked to did not want to make that choice, but they did! I was surprised by the low level of blank votes on Sunday.
They are well aware they might regret that choice. They chose Milei by a large margin. The alternative offer was unbearable. “It had to change!” was the overwhelming answer I got, when I asked why. What had to change? The rotten model of politics established by the Kirshnerists fueled by money printing, public deficits, corruption and cronyism, currency control, resulting in an asphyxiating inflation, decaying public services, insecurity and a once-in-a-generation level of impoverishment.
There is a wide consensus on the economic front: “we have to try something new”. Dollarization, or not, the State has to be less of a drag on the economy.
There are numerous examples. I’ll share one coming from an executive of a pharmaceutical company here in BA. He was telling me that there are 2 FDAs in Argentina that approve new medicines to be put on the market…And in many years working in the industry, he never understood why… He simply had to file twice, wasting twice as much resources and time. On that topic, he added that because of capital control and importation limitations, his company’s capex project of several million dollars was literally frozen at the border… That’s the economic reality that Argentinians are hoping to change by voting for Milei.
During my conversations, I asked about the well-publicized issues around Milei: either his personality, his entourage, his ideas, or his acquaintances… Everyone was well aware that Milei was a far-right figure, mixing ultra liberalism, libertarian ideas and a deeply conservative moral compass. A result of the coalition he established 2 years ago. No one I talked to is denying that this is a very dangerous “cocktail” if left unchecked.
Far-right ideas can take different forms, I have not heard anything from Milei resembling “a la Trump”, white supremacist, racist, xenophobic rhetoric. However, Milei’s detractors have rightfully pointed out to me that Congress representatives or lieutenants of the Vice President, Victoria Villarruel, have publicly amplified anti-semitic messages without Milei condemning them! I confronted my Argentinian friends about that reality, as well as the very conservative agenda pushed by Ms. Villaruel, be it on abortion, gender affirmation or the environment… This is a new reality that can change the course of Argentina (abortion was officially legalized 3 years ago).
Again, it takes a lot of courage to admit that yes those fears exist BUT the situation of the country is so dire (soon half of the population will live in poverty) that the so-called social issues become secondary. I’m not here to judge, simply to reflect on the constraints on one’s reality.
The rush of international media to sensationalize the Argentinian people’s choice is a mistake. By simplifying Milei’s agenda, focusing on his odd personality or eccentric behavior, it diverts us from focusing on the less publicized dangerous measures; and it only helps publicize the global far right populist mission and convince the population that they can do it, turn the page, risk it all, because there is no other alternative. Let there not be no alternatives!
A necessary evil? I asked. Is there any silver lining?
First, Milei did not get into power solely relying on his base (be it libertarian or ultra-conservative), he owes his victory to the overwhelming support of the PRO — center-right party — supporters and leaders. The hope is that they will be an effective counter-weight to the extreme ideas he wants to put in place (weakening gun control laws, commerce on human organs, etc.). Milei also lacks the political apparatus and local support, his party totals less than 15% of all national representative seats, he will need the PRO to govern, and one would hope he can form a wide coalition government. As a lawyer friend put it: he can’t do what he wants, he is just the president, he is limited by law and especially the constitution, pointing to two major checks and balances: Argentinian federalism and the rule of law! His detractors will talk about the impossible governability of the country without strong relays within unions and social institutions. His supporters say with 55% of votes, the Argentinians gave him a strong mandate.
The main polarizing issue that I found when discussing Milei’s agenda was not the dollarization, the privatization program, or the possible hard turn on social issues, but the loose stance taken on the dictatorship years and the duty of memory. Even if some agree that after 40 years of democracy, this subject should not be taboo, and one must accept to hear different sides of the same history, the people surrounding Milei and pushing this so-called “revisionist” agenda will continue to sow unnecessary division among the Argentinian society.
There are still many unknowns and inconsistencies in Milei’s agenda. And for the Argentinian people I spoke to, even if they agree that drastic measures are needed, especially around fixing the economy, we still need a solid plan and execution. Getting rid of gradualism in favor of shock therapy is one thing, doing it in a disorderly way or without any form of social contract is another. The expected dollarization is a case in point. How, when, how much? There are also inconsistencies in international affairs: Milei did say he would not deal with Lula, the president of Brazil, Argentina’s neighbor and number one commercial partner…
In the end, Argentinians are left with the hope of a better future, without much certainty. Hoping that Milei is kept in check, leaves behind the unnecessary populist rhetoric, focuses on what he knows — the economy — and is able to build consensus. As one entrepreneur friend who voted for Massa jokingly told me: Seguimos adelante, veremos! (Let’s keep going and we’ll see!). One must recognize not only the courageous choice of Milei as president with all fears and unknowns but also the peaceful transition of power and the willingness of Argentinians from all boards to move ahead.