What future for mobility in Europe: consensus making for future scenarios

By Dr. Imre Keseru, team leader — urban mobility, Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), MOBI Research Centre

The multi-actor multi-criteria analysis (MAMCA) methodology, which is used to involve a broad range of stakeholders in the Mobilty4EU project, is coming to a conclusion.

Based on the contribution of 224 stakeholders from 28 countries and 10 international experts, we have concluded the evaluation of the scenarios for transport and mobility in Europe in 2030.

Of the four scenarios that we earlier co-created with the stakeholders, Digital Nomads and Minimum Carbon emerged as the two preferred scenarios for the 14 stakeholder groups involved in the evaluation (see figure).

Multi-actor view

The two preferred scenarios reflect an agreement of the stakeholders that a strong legislative and policy framework is necessary to enhance mobility and promote innovation in Europe. At the same time, the stakeholders were divided about supporting a mobility system that caters for individual needs and increasing travel demand or a system that is based on shared resources and a strong push for decarbonisation.

Consensus making is the last step in the MAMCA methodology. Since MAMCA does not produce an ultimate ranking of the scenarios, the consensus-making workshop organised in Brussels on 24 October 2017 served as a platform where stakeholders came to a consensus on the scenario that best represents their objectives for the future of transport in Europe.

During the workshop, 31 stakeholders representing users, manufacturers and operators from all transport modes discussed how the two most preferred scenarios can serve as the basis for the vision for 2030.

The participants came to an agreement that the solutions proposed in Digital Nomads and Minimum Carbon are mostly complementary to each other and can be merged into a final consolidated scenario that reflects a ‘preferred scenario’ for all stakeholder groups.

This consolidated scenario will be used as a basis for creating the vision and action plan for future mobility in Europe.