What is the best stock prediction for the 2024 election? I have been sitting on this stock play for just about four years now. I think it’s going to happen again. In fact, it has already begun. In this video, I’m going over my number one stock prediction for the 2024 election and how I plan to take advantage.
I have been sitting on this stock play for just about four years now.
And I call it a play, yes, because I usually talk about responsible investing but now it is time for some degenerate gambling.
Why four years, you ask?
Well, four years ago, we had the election of 2020 where a certain topic was predictably brought up by a certain political party which predictably pumped a certain sector.
I think it’s going to happen again.
In fact, it has already begun.
In this article, I’m going over my number one stock prediction for the 2024 election and how I plan to take advantage.
On the go? Watch the video HERE.
Let’s go.
My Method for Market Prediction
When I’m trying to profit from a market prediction, especially when I’m using options, it is so important for me to remember to think like the Sicilian from The Princess Bride.
It’s not good enough for me to predict what will happen. I also have to predict what the market thinks will happen. I can only profit if I roughly know both.
In other words, let’s assume I have some insider information on Tesla and I know that Tesla will beat earnings by 5% this quarter. This information doesn’t necessarily help me unless I also have a feel for what the greater market thinks will happen.
For instance, if I buy call options and Tesla beats earnings by predictably 5% and the overall market thought that they might only beat by say 2%, then my call options will work out. The price of Tesla will go up.
However, if the market is really exuberant and expects a 10% beat on Tesla earnings and then Tesla only beats by 5%, then the stock price will likely drop down a bit and my call options will lose money.
I really need to have a feel for both components.
Just like the Sicilian, I need to know what you’re thinking, and what you’re thinking I’m thinking, and what you’re thinking I’m thinking you’re thinking, and what I’m thinking you’re thinking you’re thinking I’m thinking.
Okay, enough.
My Stock Prediction for 2024 Election
My prediction is that the Democratic Party will vow to decriminalize marijuana during the presidential debates this year around September or October.
Decriminalizing marijuana has a bigger effect than many would think on publicly traded weed selling companies.
Yes, usage of marijuana would go up throughout the United States. But in the 27 states where marijuana is already decriminalized, the current federal status still hurts these publicly traded companies.
Banks and other financial institutions that are federally regulated refuse to do business with companies in the marijuana sector.
If marijuana is decriminalized, then more favorable regulations and access to safe banking will absolutely move the needle for these publicly traded companies.
Joe Biden brought up decriminalizing marijuana at his State of the Union address on March 7th.
And then VP Kamala Harris brought up decriminalizing marijuana in her White House roundtable discussion on March 15th.
Pot stocks are already moving up in price, but this is not the peak because it’s not the peak visibility.
I think peak exposure will happen during the presidential debates in September or October. President Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will have more eyes on them at this time than any other time. Market exposure will go through the roof.
Last election we saw the same thing. Kamala vowed to decriminalize marijuana and the whole sector surged.
The best total sector marijuana ETF, in my opinion, is MJ (Amplified Alternative Harvest ETF). You can see that in late September, early October, the price soared from $10 per share up to nearly $35 per share.
I am so confident that this topic will come up at the debates because it is such an easy win for Democrats for two reasons:
- Republicans are incredibly unlikely to champion marijuana so it sets Democrats apart.
- Marijuana legalization is incredibly popular. This poll by Pew Research Center shows that 88% of US adults think that marijuana should be legal.
So this is such an easy win for Democrats that they will probably hype it up. And the more they hype it, the more people that will pile into the marijuana stocks which plays into my next point.
We have seen insane speculation in the marijuana sector in the past. Look at what happened in 2019 when people piled into Tilray Brands, the price went as high as $215 per share. Now it’s sitting at $2 per share.
Canopy Growth popped to nearly $600 per share and now it sits at $7.
Aurora Cannabis exploded to almost $1,500 per share and now it sits at just $5 per share.
To be clear, I don’t think we’re going to return to these overly exuberant levels anytime soon, but this just goes to show the absolute meme level status that these stocks can achieve with enough hype.
So back to my favorite ETF, MJ (Amplified Alternative Harvest ETF). You can see the price slowly bled down to below $3 per share as the Democratic Party failed to do what they said they would do over the last four years.
Could this happen again?
Yes, it’s possible. Or the Democratic Party could lose the presidency altogether.
There are some unknowns here that I don’t feel comfortable predicting, which is why I will structure my trade to profit regardless.Let’s get into the different paths that I’m considering.
Path 1
The first path is simply buying shares and selling them before the election results are clear. I do not intend to buy shares and hold them for many years because of the possibility of a slow bleed.
That being said, I do believe the chances of complete legalization increase every year.
If I do simply buy shares, then I would go with MJ, the marijuana sector ETF.
If marijuana is decriminalized, then the whole sector will benefit which will guarantee returns for MJ. That way I do not have to risk the one company that I invest in getting beat out by its competition or getting beat out by a newcomer that I didn’t even see coming.
Buying shares and holding for many years is not a bad strategy, but it’s not what I intend to do just because I’m not confident about what will happen after the election results come out.
Path 2
The second path is combining path one with buying call options. This strategy is known as a covered call.
First, I buy shares of a particular stock and then I sell call options against those shares.
I like this strategy when call option premiums are really high because there was some recent hype in the news around rescheduling marijuana.
We had Joe Biden’s state of the union address and Kamala Harris’s White House Roundtable. We should see more people piling into the marijuana stocks, at least in the short term, which will result in higher premiums.
Now there are still many months between now and the presidential debates. So if there’s nothing in the news for a few months, we could see option premiums drop and maybe pursue a different strategy at that time.
For this strategy, I like buying shares of MJ or any pot stock that has enjoyed a recent sharp rise in share price such as TLRY, CGC, ACB… which have very high option premiums.
I prefer selling call options that are just out of the money. That way I benefit from the increase in share price that we’re likely to see going forward and I also get the option premium on top of that.
As far as expiration date, I would not sell any options that go further than October.
You certainly don’t want to sell any options that expire in January because you don’t want to be stuck holding those shares after the election where we could see a big drop off if the Republican candidate wins the election.
In my opinion, the post election risk is too high because I really don’t know who’s going to win the election at this point. It’s a toss up.
Path 3
The third and most risky path is to straight up buy out of the money call options that expire in January. However, I would plan to sell these contracts before we get too deep into the election, and one of the candidates starts to take the lead.
Since the contract expires after the results of the election will be known, then I will still get to profit from the possibility of a blue victory even though I’m closing my position before we know for sure what’s going to happen.
If we see a similar rise in stock price as the previous election, then I should make a really good profit buying call options that are $3 or $4 out of the money.
A 10X gain or more is not outside the realm of possibility if we see a pop off to previous levels. For instance, if I were to buy $6 MJ calls for about 50 cents and the price of MJ went up to $30 per share, that would be a 50X gain on my principle.
That’s insane. Now that’s probably pretty unlikely, but you see what I’m getting at.
My exit plan is mostly based on a target date. That is selling my contract before the election results start to become clear. But it is also important to consider a target percent return or a tiered plan where you sell different numbers of shares or contracts at different price levels.
I like to think of every invested dollar as having a specific job.
- For me, 80% of my principal is going to be all in. I’m going to leave this portion of my investment in until the target date because I do not want to live with regret if the price pops off, but I sold out too early like I did last election.
- The remaining 20% of my invested principal will act as insurance. If we ever see a 2X gain, then I will take that money out to protect against a reversal. That way I won’t lose my whole investment if hype builds up early on and then fades away if marijuana just leaves the conversation altogether.
Preserving 40% of my capital by selling 20% early and then selling the remainder before the election should protect me from having a complete loss of my investment principle.
What Now?
Buying call options is admittedly a very risky strategy and I am not investing any money that I cannot afford to lose.
I personally would not risk a significant portion of my portfolio on a stock prediction because nobody can truly predict the future.
However, if you’re interested in seeing some more responsible investing strategies such as my method on how I pick ETFs that outperform the S&P 500, click HERE for the video and HERE for the article.
Catch you on the flip side… when we’re both rich.
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