One year post-VTA bus service restoration: reflections and results
Today marks one year since VTA restored bus service to 90% of pre-pandemic levels. This significant step returned most of the frequent bus network to 15-minute headways during the daytime on weekdays and made the system much more convenient for riders.
Since this is a significant milestone, I wanted to share some of my thoughts and some of the data. But before I get into that, I want to acknowledge the agency staff for all of their work to make this happen, the 2020 and 2021 board members for pushing for service restoration, and everyone who was supportive and helped make this possible.
The backstory
In the early days of the pandemic, ridership plummeted because of the shelter-in-place order. Service was temporarily reduced so that transit employees could shelter in place and stay home with their kids. The future of VTA transit was very uncertain.
However, despite the uncertainty and the fear, I knew that if we wanted to have a positive future for transit, we needed service restoration. I started advocating for service restoration pretty early on during the pandemic, even before VTA proposed to formalize cuts as part of their 2021 Transit Service Plan. I was often told that I was being “unreasonable” because the ridership wasn’t there and the uncertain financial situation, but I kept pushing for it. Eventually, in early 2021 the sales tax started to recover, and the decision was made to restore full service, and it has slowly been resOctober 11e then.
Service restoration day
On October 11, 2021, just after 4am, the first bus went out, and I woke up to watch it go out on the Pantograph app while most of the county was still asleep. It was such a cool moment.
The after a few cups of coffee, I set out on a mini transit adventure around 5am to take some of my favourite routes and the first run out of Diridon on the Rapid 568, which also launched that day. It was so amazing to see the service come back and see riders start to notice.
The data
Now that the stories are out of the way, I’m sure you’re all wondering if the ridership returned. I’m very happy to report that it has been coming back. According to the most recent numbers, VTA bus ridership is almost at 80% of pre-pandemic levels, which is the highest of the bus peers in the Bay Area as far as I know.
Since the service restoration happened, bus ridership has gone up by around 40%, and overall ridership has gone up by about 50%. While we still have more ridership to recover, I think it’s safe to say that we are back on track and that the service restoration worked.
What’s next
So now that bus service is back to 90% levels, and ridership is recovering, what's next? The next step is to restore 15-minute daytime weekday headways on the light rail, which is happening on October 31st (yes, it’s actually on Halloween). Next year, the rest of the service will be recovered (mostly weekend and night service), and some improvements will be made as part of the 2023 Transit Service Plan.
After the service goes out, ridership will have the chance to recover even more. Some people argue that ridership has to recover first before service is restored, but this year has shown me that the opposite is true. You have to put out the service if you want people to have the opportunity to use it.
Questions from Twitter and FAQs:
Q: How did VTA get the money to restore service?
A: They used a tiny bit of stimulus funding, but it’s mostly financially possible because the sales tax had a strong recovery. A lot can change in the future, but they still have quite a bit of stimulus funding left and they can pursue new revenue sources in the future.
Q: I want to get service restored at XYZ agency, but I don’t know were to start. What should I do?
A: This probably sounds pretty scary, but you honestly just have to put yourself out there and ask for what you want and get others to do the same. Telling personal stories and using data also usually helps me a lot.
Q: What was the hardest part of the process?
A: The employees did most of the hard work to be honest. They planned everything and they drive the buses. For me as an advocate, the hardest part was not giving up when things were really bad. I watched ridership plummet. I watched some of the people I looked up to the most give up and say negative things, and it was really tough. Thankfully, I had some really amazing people supporting me, and they stopped me from giving up many times.
Q: What was your favorite part of the process?
A: Taking the bus on service restoration day. It was just so cool to see something I had pushed for and wanted for so long finally happen. It’s also been amazing to be able to tell people good news about the ridership and service. That’s been a really new and great experience for me this year.
Q: Do you think VTA will ever have more than 100% of pre-pandemic service?
A: Technically, the 2023 Transit Service Plan has a tiny bit more than 100%, but I think it’s possible to have 110% service or 120% service or even more someday. That’s going to require VTA to get new revenue for operations, though because running more service costs more money.
Q: Do you think ridership will ever get to 100% of pre-pandemic?
A: Yes! I think it will, especially with the extended hours in the 2023 Transit Service Plan and new transit signal priority on the Monterey Corridor. The service will be better than it was pre-pandemic when it’s fully rolled out. Even if some riders are lost because of work from home or other reasons, I think it will be possible to get new riders on board with the improved service. So, I’m feeling hopeful about the future!
I don’t know what this series is called, but I’m a transit advocate in Santa Clara County and I also write other pieces on Medium and for the San Jose Spotlight. If you have any questions or suggestions, please DM me on Twitter @/monicamallon.
