Progress in the field of Ensemble Learning part2(Machine Learning)
- Context-Aware Ensemble Learning for Time Series (arXiv)
Author : Arda Fazla, Mustafa Enes Aydin, Orhun Tamyigit, Suleyman Serdar Kozat
Abstract : We investigate ensemble methods for prediction in an online setting. Unlike all the literature in ensembling, for the first time, we introduce a new approach using a meta learner that effectively combines the base model predictions via using a superset of the features that is the union of the base models’ feature vectors instead of the predictions themselves. Here, our model does not use the predictions of the base models as inputs to a machine learning algorithm, but choose the best possible combination at each time step based on the state of the problem. We explore three different constraint spaces for the ensembling of the base learners that linearly combines the base predictions, which are convex combinations where the components of the ensembling vector are all nonnegative and sum up to 1; affine combinations where the weight vector components are required to sum up to 1; and the unconstrained combinations where the components are free to take any real value. The constraints are both theoretically analyzed under known statistics and integrated into the learning procedure of the meta learner as a part of the optimization in an automated manner. To show the practical efficiency of the proposed method, we employ a gradient-boosted decision tree and a multi-layer perceptron separately as the meta learners. Our framework is generic so that one can use other machine learning architectures as the ensembler as long as they allow for a custom differentiable loss for minimization. We demonstrate the learning behavior of our algorithm on synthetic data and the significant performance improvements over the conventional methods over various real life datasets, extensively used in the well-known data competitions. Furthermore, we openly share the source code of the proposed method to facilitate further research and comparison
2.DGEKT: A Dual Graph Ensemble Learning Method for Knowledge Tracing (arXiv)
Author : Chaoran Cui, Yumo Yao, Chunyun Zhang, Hebo Ma, Yuling Ma, Zhaochun Ren, Chen Zhang, James Ko
Abstract : Knowledge tracing aims to trace students’ evolving knowledge states by predicting their future performance on concept-related exercises. Recently, some graph-based models have been developed to incorporate the relationships between exercises to improve knowledge tracing, but only a single type of relationship information is generally explored. In this paper, we present a novel Dual Graph Ensemble learning method for Knowledge Tracing (DGEKT), which establishes a dual graph structure of students’ learning interactions to capture the heterogeneous exercise-concept associations and interaction transitions by hypergraph modeling and directed graph modeling, respectively. To ensemble the dual graph models, we introduce the technique of online knowledge distillation, due to the fact that although the knowledge tracing model is expected to predict students’ responses to the exercises related to different concepts, it is optimized merely with respect to the prediction accuracy on a single exercise at each step. With online knowledge distillation, the dual graph models are adaptively combined to form a stronger teacher model, which in turn provides its predictions on all exercises as extra supervision for better modeling ability. In the experiments, we compare DGEKT against eight knowledge tracing baselines on three benchmark datasets, and the results demonstrate that DGEKT achieves state-of-the-art performance.
