The greatest threat to the foundation of existing digital publishing revenues (aka Display Advertising) is not mechanical ad blocking via browser extension. The threat is the enormous shift to handheld, touch-enabled computers (aka Mobile) and the accompanying re-bundling of content and distribution (aka Facebook). Yes, ad blocking extensions are clearly thinning the audience, especially in verticals such as Gaming and in many European markets such as Poland; however, as audience flees the large screens of desktop and laptop computers for the smaller ones in their palms, “ad blocking” is occurring naturally. Essentially, Mobile is a mass extinction event for the display ad. Display is going extinct naturally. There is still space for some display on mobile but their time of dominance is over.

Just try to find the right rail on Mobile. Just try to find a brontosaurus in Iowa.

Desktop Display via browsers is essentially getting subsumed by Mobile in-app consumption. Firefox, meet Facebook. And it’s not just that readers are flocking to their handhelds, I think the future consumption patterns will mean ever more articles read and videos watched completely within Facebook, Twitter, Snapchat, Pinterest and Medium environments. This represents a re-bundling of content with distribution. This bundle used to be represented locally by newspapers such as the Boston Globe or San Francisco Chronicle. Those organizations literally bundled newspapers onto trucks and owned local markets from journalist to newsstand. Today, content markets are no longer local — they are demographic. Some people are on Facebook. Others are Pinners. Still others prefer their content to vanish, sort of. In the past, we’ve thought of them as aggregators, but Facebook et al are the new distributors, and on mobile this is exacerbated.

Social distribution diminishes the role of display even further as the new distribution also owns media sales. Each has its own “native” approach. Each will seek to own the revenue producing relationships. And each will attempt to further co-opt the publisher with their own native mobile offering. (This is probably the stuff for a future essay :)

So, Mobile and Social Distribution crowds out display. Clearly Publishers need to address mechanical and natural ad blocking lest they go extinct alongside their main form of sustenance. Many already are experimenting with various levels of success.

1. End Around the Blockers: from ad network white-label deals with ABP (gasp!) to new tech from folks like PageFair, Publishers are able to claw back marginal revenue. This is an arms race, but likely a useful one to engage in over the near term. Long term it likely won’t matter much as content is consumed in-app and not via desktop browser.

2. Direct Reader Payment: Publishers are experimenting with subscription and other pay models. From Pando to The Information, NYT to FT, ReadWrite to TechCrunch, pubs with something truly different and valuable are asking readers to pay. Email, Events, and Subscriptions! Oh my!

3. Promoted Content: whether it’s a bespoke article in the NYT from Netflix, a sponsored Quartz series by GE or programmatically amplified content via Zemanta (where I work) Publishers are and should be embracing commercial content. Readers tend to prefer it to display and, perhaps most importantly, it transitions to mobile elegantly. Even if FB is brokering the reader.

4. Integration: depending on your perspective this is a subset of Promoted Content or its own beast. Oftentimes these integrations jump off the page. Blogger Elsie Larson of A Beautiful Mess is an example of a publisher who has done great commerce integrations with fashion and lifestyle brands. And, come to think of it, she has also done some innovative apps and subscriptions to directly monetize her audience.

5. And more I’m sure… experiments abound with the new distributors, Medium collections, commerce, crowd sourcing and more!

Ad blocking is not three clicks away. It’s barely one swipe away.

Ad blocking is not three clicks away. It’s barely one swipe away. But it’s a byproduct, not a root cause. Mobile is the root cause, it’s the asteroid. It has changed the landscape. Now is the time to experiment, iterate and adapt.