Hillary Clinton and the New Economy Sieve
This US election season, everyone has been asking “Where have Trump’s voters come from?”. It’s become increasingly obvious that, in large part, Trump has emerged as a voice for the segment of Americans that feel the economic world has passed them by.
Having just watched both party conventions now, what has struck me is the contrast between Hillary’s supporters and those who are trumpeting Trump. Hillary’s fans are, in large part, the “not left behind” — the seemingly plugged in, app endowed, gig-economy oriented, uber riding crowd. That may be my own projection on them, of course, but there was no doubt that the Democratic conventioneers were there to turn Trump frowns upside down, and you can’t watch them without thinking they feel, at least, that the economy is working for them.
This contrast between the lifted-up and the left-behind brought to mind the image that they American working populace have been going through a New Economy sifting process, like soil through a sieve. Many Trump voters are those folks who slid through the mesh and are free-falling into a future that doesn’t seem to offer much for them, while the Hillary voters are (for now), safe in the “keep” pile.
As a native Detroiter, I grew up at ground zero of globalization. I watched as the auto companies first got caught flat footed by Japanese competitors, then as NAFTA made it easy for those companies to move factories, and jobs, to Mexico (and beyond). The process wasn’t overnight — it was one factory at a time, one supplier at a time, one layoff at a time. Little by little, workers — my neighbors, friends, and relatives — had one less option, one less opportunity. They were slowly being filtered out based on skills, experience, education, and age. While Detroit was at the center of this, the same process rolled across the midwest and the entire country.
Of course, this filtering wasn’t an intentional and malicious effort. It resulted from a combination of policies and forces, and of innovations, that changed how value is created, and who creates it. In many ways it was obvious — I had high school teachers who said I better study computers because there would be no factory jobs in a few years — but somehow a lot of people feel the new world had sneaked up on them.
Here’s the interesting part: at this month’s conventions, we can see where this filtering has gotten to, and we can see what the impact is in terms of people’s outlook and politics. Looking at the polls, perhaps 40–50% of the voting population identify with the “left-behind”, the “filtered-out”. But when looking at recent historic trends, we tend to make the mistake of thinking that we have somehow “arrived” at an equilibrium that is Now. Of course, that’s not true — we are not at the end of a journey but still on that path leading ever forward into the future. And the New Economy filtering is not something that has “happened”, but is happening now, and with the advent of artificial intelligence and robotics, is likely accelerating.
Over the next 10 to 20 years, many more people are likely to find themselves displaced by innovation. “Brain-work”, which used to be a safe bet, may not protect you when artificial brains — bots — are coming along to do what you do but better and cheaper. The holes in the mesh of the New(-er) Economy sieve are getting bigger and many more of us are likely to start falling through it.
It will be very interesting to see what the conventions of the 2028 election cycles look like. I’m an optimist, and I think innovation can bring as much or more good than, certainly, stagnation. But, if the next president, Boy or Girl, are not leaning forward to tackle the employment challenges of the next decade, we’re won’t be looking at a 50–50% split between the camps. Rather, we’ll have — what? — 65–70% of voters feeling out of luck. And whatever comes, that won’t be good for anyone.
