A short one today and for clarity, this is purely hypothetical without much deep analysis at this stage. This is down the route of thinking about things through a “transfer market” lens. i.e. we, as users, move towards a state of mind of picking up new player cards in certain timeframes/windows when cards are initially launched, rather than spread more evenly across a whole year. More utility, right?
On a side note, who remembers Sorare’s Sunday Power Hours? Could they make a comeback?! I think there could well be a place for these again for special editions etc throughout the season.
Anyway, this is in relation to the fact that for in-season tournaments to work effectively, there needs to be available supply early season. And that we may or may not have had a sneak-peak via some form of bug/easter-egg showing Rares and Super Rares on Instant Buy briefly last week.
We can safely assume that Sorare want users to buy cards for in-season tournaments as soon as possible and that users want to enter in-season tournaments as soon as possible to win cash. That sounds like a win-win as it is, however there’s a big variable impacting both sides, that is, the supply of in-season cards.
Historically, Sorare haven’t launched cards before seasons actually starting. But I think we’re now of the opinion that they have a solution to do this, or are at least working towards one. So let’s assume Sorare have solved it.
How many cards do they mint before the first GW of the season? How many cards do they mint by the first 8 GWs of the season? Well, here’s where Instant Buy can be the answer.
Instant-Buy vs Auctions
Instant Buy works better on a demand basis when compared to Auctions. Auctions may be listed when there isn’t necessarily strong demand and at times users end up purchasing — not because they wanted that card — but because they perceive that it’s “good value”. Or, if users want a specific card but it’s not at auction, they’ve got to wait and potentially fight it out with others when that card does come to auction. Of course, Sorare are able to earn via auctions, and in some cases users might end up doing well with this strategy. However, in general, it seems a little flawed to me from a UX perspective and ultimately leads to disappointment eventually.
Let’s take the MLS for example, as we might assume it’s the next league to be launched based on the calendar. There are a possible 1000 Limited cards, 100 Rare cards, 10 Super Rare cards and 1 Unique for each player in the league. Now we know Sorare need to hold back a portion of these for rewards, so let’s assume this remains at 40%. That means Sorare can sell 600, 60, 6 and 0.6 respectively. I will say from this point, I’m excluding the Unique scarcity from the conversation.
Gauging demand is often the most difficult thing for Sorare to do, so why not let it be defined by Instant Buy. At least for Limited, Rare and Super Rare. Say Sorare allocated 50% of their 60% to Instant Buy, that’s then 300, 30 and 3 of each player during these initial transfer windows.
#1 editions and jersey mints would likely sit outside of these and still be auctioned. But every other mint of a player card is essentially like-for-like when it is minted.
Transfer Window
So where does Instant Buy come in? Well, let’s say at any given time during the “transfer window” you can buy any player card at any scarcity.
The “transfer window” length is up for debate but my initial thought would be that it would open two weeks before the first game of the season + then remain open for the first six-eight weeks, roughly two months on average.
Demand-led Pricing
The other difficult thing to be done is to gauge price levels. But it’s generally accepted that the average T5<T4<T3<T2<T1<Stars. There’s no rhyme or rule to what the multiplier is between these tiers, for this example I’ve used an exponential trend along the lines of:
That’s to say if the average limited T5 is $1, the average limited T2 would be $8.80, average T1 would be $32 and the average limited Star (T0) would be $143. Take that with a pinch of salt, it’s only a guide used to evaluate how this could work.
The starting price I won’t get into right now, but it shouldn’t matter too much if Sorare don’t get it right initially as with this, the price will adjust based on demand. Not a million miles away from a Dutch auction style.
For limited, I would propose a 1% price rise for every card purchased. For Rare, 2.5% and for Super Rare 10%. Again, take these with a pinch of salt — Sorare can come up with something better no doubt. How would this look then? Here’s a compressed view of what 1% incremental would do for Limited at each tier average level for 300 cards.
If a T5 started at $1 and there was consistent (& fast) demand up to 300 cards for that player, the 300th buyer would pay $19.59. Same for a Star starting at $142, if there was consistent (& fast) demand for 300 cards of that player the 300th buyer would need to pay $2,800.
And here’s how a 2.5% increase to Rare might look like across tiers (again, don’t place too much importance on starting average price levels):
User-influenced market
Before everyone starts researching where the best place to register your superyacht is, while this sounds fun, in reality it would unlikely get to this level for many — if any player on the platform. There would be a time limit set.
Limiteds, 6 hours. Rare, 24 hours. Super Rare, 72 hours.
Again, only an example. If nobody purchased a card at the available Instant Buy price after that time, it reverts back one level. For example, if the 10th Carles Gil rare was snapped up at $892 but nobody was prepared to pay the price for the 11th, after 24 hours the Instant Buy card would drop to the same as the 9th card sold, $870, and continue to fall every 24 hours until the card was purchased again (perhaps Sorare need to set some thresholds here — TBD further).
It’s fascinating to think about the impact this has upon the secondary market as well. We have a better idea of what the next user might be willing to pay for our cards. Some might not love the idea as it infers somewhat more of a “control” on the market from Sorare, but I’d argue it creates a very open, transparent and fair way for players to evaluate where they want to spend. It also creates a fun dynamic on weighing up when to purchase, or perhaps waiting out to see if you can get it for a bit less in a few days. Remember, if someone else snaps up a card in that time, you might end up needing to pay more.
What it also does is it sets a fair price level according to demand. Whether a player goes on a hot streak or ends up long term injured, it would be in a controlled manner, or at least controlled in the sense of users having an opportunity to be involved and have an impact upon price.
There may be some strong arguments against this for various reasons but I’m interested to hear people’s opinions. Food for thought!
