Economists Have No Clue About the Future
John Mauldin
11016

Why do people confuse the economy with the stock market? The market changes orders of magnitude faster than the underlying businesses, much less the economy. The link is hyper fragile.

It is difficult to measure the economy, even months later. How good is the sampling? How good is the cause-and-effect? Finally, how simplistic is the model (does it just predict GDP)? How can we make good predictions and decisions about things we can barely measure?

We are still in the anatomy phase of economics. Maybe we will advance, but maybe this is as objectively good as it can be.

I think the reason we want economics is the fear that our economy can’t be controlled and we are helpless. That is today’s state.

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