Will Hayward
Nov 1 · 1 min read

I’m not sure the emphasis of this is correct.

Whilst I agree that the market might well support multiple providers, the current economics of many of these platforms (particularly Netflix — its kind of hard to discuss Apple as that is arguably more of a hardware marketing play) are based on owning most of the market at some point in the future. Run at a loss for several years, scale as much as possible, and ultimately raise prices. A bit like Uber.

If they don’t end up being the dominant provider with most of the best content, they won’t have the pricing power to raise what they charge, nor will they continue to enjoy the cheap capital that the market currently affords them.

This won’t necessarily mean they’ll disappear — just that they will have to accept a less dominant future, aim for a more clearly defined market segment, and charge a higher price. So you might see Netflix become the best place for sci-fi content, and another provider become the best place for sports.

I guess I’m saying the future might look more like the current day than we anticipate. All could survive, but they’ll probably charge more and have a more clearly defined market. I suspect some might not accept this fate and ultimately go out with a bang (or whimper).

    Will Hayward

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