Require Masks and Prepare Plans for a Remote Option for District 203 in the Fall
First on masking: the CDC recommends all unvaccinated students wear masks in schools and we know that no child under 12 has been vaccinated. Second, the American Academy of Pediatrics recommends universal masking in school for everyone over the age of 2 regardless of vaccination status. Therefore, have all kids wear masks in schools. Without masking, our quarantine policies should remain very strict and guarantees significant disruption to education.
Second, and more controversial I’m sure: prepare a remote option for the fall in District 203. Why? Cases could end up much higher than last winter, Delta might be deadlier, and a vaccine will likely be approved for children in the fall so there’s a clear endpoint to these mitigations.
“Skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been.” —Wayne Gretzky
Now bear with me as I back up my claims with some data and math. District 203 opened on January 25th 2020 with a remote option, a mask mandate, a 6-ft distance requirement, contact tracing, and voluntary screening. At that time, DuPage County had 206 cases per 100k population per week.
This past week, DuPage reported 23 cases per 100k population, but cases are growing at 76% week over week in DuPage. If that growth rate continues, we’ll be at 301 cases per 100k population per week on the day school starts, exceeding our rates in January 2021 by nearly 50%. And of course, cases could continue to rise after.
If, as I modeled above, cases continue their current growth rate — and the example of the UK suggests cases will continue to rise — opening schools without a remote option and, even more importantly, without a mask mandate, would be a disaster. Judging from the ratio of kids quarantining to cases in 203 this previous school year, we could easily be seeing 1000, 2000, or more kids quarantining at a time this fall. Requiring masks as well as offering a remote option will decrease the risk of this happening.
Now people might say, “we have to get back to normal.” That’s true, but what they fail to see is that the Pfizer covid vaccine will likely be approved for children sometime between September (says Pfizer) to the winter (says the FDA). It’s sensible to give a remote learning option to parents who want to protect their kids until a vaccine is released. Not only that, but having less kids in the school buildings will decrease the spread for those who choose to send their children in person.
If there is a hybrid-remote option like last year, it will also make the transition to remote learning for quarantining/sick children much more seamless.
To consider the worst-case outcome, there’s a 31% chance that one or more student in 203 would pass away from COVID-19 if we allow uncontrolled spread.
The calculation for 31% is as follows. According to the CDC about 65% of the Illinois population has not yet been infected with COVID. Also according to the CDC, the covid fatality rate for children is 20 per million. We have about 16k students in District 203. Data from the Lancet indicates that Delta may be 1.8x more dangerous, but we don’t have enough data to be sure yet. To work out the math: 1-(1–1.8*20/1000000)^(16000*.65) = 31% chance that one or more District 203 students will die of COVID this coming year.
There’s also Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) to consider, which has a rate of occurrence of 10x the covid fatality rate in kids. Similar math gives us an 87% chance at least one District 203 student will contract MIS-C if we allowed uncontrolled spread before the approval of a covid vaccine in children.
Risk of hospitalization for school aged children is around 0.5%, so with uncontrolled covid spread we would have 50 District 203 children hospitalized, and about 100 if the data from the Lancet article on increased severity is correct.
We don’t know what the situation will look like in a month when school is scheduled to open. But we do know the CDC and AAP recommend masks. We also know that current trends indicate the possibility of a large wave in the fall, in which the primary risk is to the unvaccinated — including all of our children under the age of 12. Skate where the puck is going — plan for a remote option and require masks — a vaccine for children is right around the corner, hang in there. Thank you.
