How should we judge expert forecasts of COVID-19?

Co-authored by Tom Liptay and Michael Story

There has been a lot of criticism of experts’ failure to forecast COVID-19. This post explores if that criticism is justified, how to properly judge forecast accuracy, and how to hold any forecaster accountable.

GJP superforecaster and co-founder of Maby.app, where we help companies see the future more clearly

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