The reasoning behind intelligence explosion, like many of the early theories about AI that arose in the 1960s and 1970s, is sophistic: it considers “intelligence” in a completely abstract way, disconnected from its context, and ignores available evidence about both intelligent systems and recursively self-improving systems. It doesn’t have to be that way. We are, after all, on a planet that is literally packed with intelligent systems (including us) and self-improving systems, so we can simply observe them and learn from them to answer the questions at hand, instead of coming up with evidence-free circular reasonings.
Version 8 of Android, which we now know is code-named Oreo, was officially released today through the Android Open Source Project, a year almost to the day after the release of Android Nougat. So it’s worth taking a minute to remember that a new Android release isn’t like the release of new versions of iOS (which we’ll see next month). In fact, it’s likely that no more than a third of Android’s installed base will ever use Oreo, and that it’ll take about two years for the majority of the base to be using Oreo or versions that come after it. (I wrote a similar analysis here last year on the day Nougat was released).