Language to help downballot MassGOP candidates survive Trump

First, let’s get something out of the way: Trump won the GOP primary with 49% of the vote, but since the party is so small, that has nothing to do with the general election. In fact, in a massive review by WBUR polling and the finest pollster in our state (Steve Koczela) Trump’s favorability is at 18%. Let this sink in:

75% of Massachusetts has an unfavorable view of Trump.

Here is the money quote from Steve:

Trump’s poll numbers are rock bottom. He is viewed favorably by just 18 percent of the state’s voters, according to a recent WNEU poll. We assembled a database of 238 favorability ratings included in any of our statewide public polling we at The MassINC Polling Group have ever conducted. Trump’s staggering 75 percent unfavorable rating in the WNEU survey is a higher figure than for any person, thing or group we have ever measured in Massachusetts.

So with these shocking numbers, and with polls show Clinton leading him by 30 points, ignore the Trump people who say that he’s going to help our candidates in MA. He isn’t going to help us, he’s a huge storm headed to our state that is going to cause us to lose some elections. We always have a harder time winning during a presidential election due to turnout. This will have a much greater negative effect.

(Not convinced? Try this professional analysis. Or this one. There is no escaping this, people!)

It’s time we prepare to protect our candidates. I am going to talk strategy first, then provide language anyone can use:

Strategy #1: Be proactive

If you think you’re going to go months without a question about Donald Trump with him dominating the media, you’re wrong. Every Democratic strategist in America will nationalize this election and insist that you go on record. Why wait for the wrong time, place, or context to get asked? Release a minimal statement ahead of time. Define this on your terms and preempt some of the attacks you will see. You’ll still get asked, but if you’re on record already, you might not get ambush-style questions.

Strategy #2: Be personal

Voters don’t care about what your party activities or responsibilities are. What they want to know is if they can relate to you, and if you share their values. 75% of people and thousands of voters you need do not share Trump’s values and they want to know if you’re with him, or with them. You’ve got to say you and Trump do not share many values, and that you are not going to personally vote for him. You will lose a tiny amount of Trump voters saying this, but save many more voters that you must have to win. Don’t forget that Charlie Baker has said many times that he won’t vote for Trump, so it is perfectly safe (and quite advantageous) to say the same thing.

Strategy #3: Show empathy

Many voters have very strong anti-Trump feelings, and some communities, such as Muslim-Americans, African-American, Latinos, and others, feel threatened by him. Others see his vulgarity and worry about the state of our politics. Let people tell you their fears and frustrations, and don’t try to immediately change the subject. Try to show support for their feelings, and indicate that you would never make those kinds of statements or support those kinds of policies.

Language

As a lover of words and a writer, I thought I would write up a bunch of useful statements for dealing with questions about the party and Trump. Feel free to use any of these without attribution.

Do you support Donald Trump?

A: I am a citizen of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, and we have strong values about how people should be treated and what kind of country we want to live in. Donald Trump does not share or respect those values and I do not support him.

Will you vote for Donald Trump?

A: Most people in our district will not vote for Donald Trump, Governor Baker will not vote for Donald Trump, and I will not vote for him, either.

Questions about the Republican Party

A: I belong to the Massachusetts Republican Party first. We are an inclusive, tolerant party that believes all people should be treated equally. We are led by Governor Baker, not Donald Trump. I have no control over what is happening at the national level, and that will have no impact on how I represent you on Beacon Hill.

A: The Republican presidential primary was a divisive and discouraging process with too much ugliness. It did not reflect the values of our political culture here in Massachusetts, or what you would see at the statehouse among state legislators. I will act differently in debates and discussions and respect your views of how politics should work.

Do you support Donald Trump’s view that…. (a variety of issues)

[Avoid specifics]

A: There are many things Donald Trump has said that I disagree with or find offensive. My campaign is unlike his, and I don’t feel the need to go on record opposing every terrible thing he has said. It would also take too much time! I want to represent your values, and not his values.

Your opponent tries to link you to Trump

A: I understand that Democrats want to make this election all about Donald Trump, as he is, according to polling, officially the least popular thing in Massachusetts. But my opponent is running against me, and not Trump. My decisions will be based on what your needs are, not what is happening outside of Massachusetts. If my opponent wants to talk about Donald Trump and not what you need from state government, I have no control over that. I’d rather listen to voters than refute Trump’s many foolish positions.

A Trump supporter demands you support the nominee

A: Donald Trump won the Republican Primary, but that has nothing to do with the election I am engaged in now. I am competing to serve the people of this district, who overwhelmingly do not see Trump’s views as what they want from our state government. You are free to vote however you want for president, but I will not be voting for Donald Trump. I have no obligation to vote for him, and just as you have no obligation to vote for me. I hope you vote for me based on what I can do for this district and not based on how I will vote for president. [Avoid any questions about who you might vote for or write in, unless you think it helps you in some concrete way.]

In conclusion, I hope these polling data, strategies, and language are helpful for our candidates who hope to survive the storm.