Aston Villa v Man Utd: Preview
Top 4 is on!
A MASSIVE match in the race for top 4 sees Man Utd travel to Villa Park to take on, err, Villa, in what is kind of a crunch game. For both.
Erik ten Hag and Unai Emery are both looking to make it into those Champions League spots which no doubt, makes this one hell of a game.
I’m looking forward to this one.
Predicted Lineup
The only area of change is the defense. With Lisandro Martinez being ruled out for eight weeks after picking up a knee injury in that win over West Ham last weekend, Erik ten Hag has a decision to make on who his centre-backs will be.
As you can see, I’ve predicted he will go with Varane and Maguire. This isn’t the pairing that I would like to see.
I would’ve preferred to see Luke Shaw partner Varane considering the fact that the two of them were the best CB pairing in football history during the time they were together last season.
However, without a cover at left-back, that would be a problem. ten Hag has ruled out both AWB and Malacia which means we only have two available full-backs: Luke Shaw and Diogo Dalot.
I would also prefer Lindelof, who made his return this past weekend, to play next to Varane. I don’t think that will happen though. Hell, perhaps ten Hag will not even play Varane! We all know the two of them haven’t seen eye-to-eye for a period of the season.
The rest of the team remains the same.
Our Aproach
We won’t be able to play how we want to from the back. Martinez made such a difference with this because of how calm and good he is in possession. None of our other defenders are as good so straightaway, we have a problem.
I doubt we’ll be playing a high line as Villa away is a tough place to go and we struggle against the best so I can see us playing a little deeper. With someone like Maguire in there, this would make more sense.
What we also know is that Villa do like to play a high line which could work in our favour especially when looking at the first game this season. They are also at home which means they will have to take the initiative and I feel that we could give them majority of possession which again, suits United and ten Hag as we are a counter-attacking side.
Emery has a relatively powerful and energetic midfield when looking at the likes of John McGinn, Douglas Luiz, Youri Tielemans, Leon Bailey and Nicolo Zaniolo. Whomever he chooses, all of them have have that energy.
Which is why we need to match them. Last season in this fixture, we lacked that running power and physicality when we played Casemiro, Eriksen and van de Beek. Hardly any power, is it?
Kobbie Mainoo and Casemiro seemed to have struck up the right balance in that one sits, one is box-to-box. Both are quite strong and good on the ball and in Mainoo’s case, very calm.
I do feel that we will have to do a bit of a man marking job in the midfield as a lot of Villa’s play goes throught theirs with the likes of Luiz, Kamara and McGinn. If we stop them from playing through, they may have to change up and go a little more direct in their approach, something that Emery will not want to do.
With Bruno Fernandes as well, he is always energetic even if he is a little ill-disciplined.
The midfield is where I think this game is going to be won or lost.
In attack, United have been creating a lot of chances since the turn of the year. From that first game against Wigan, we’ve had a total of 97 shots at goal averaging around 20 a game. We’ve also scored 15 in five, 3 per game.
Will we be getting as many chances at Villa? I doubt it but I would be pleasantly surprised if we did.
That is why I believe we have to be efficient. Take the chances that we do get. With 38 of that 97 on target, it means we have a strike rate of 2.5 in these last five matches.
Hojlund, Garnacho and Rashford have all been in great form with Hojlund getting his first goal in the PL and Garnacho getting the other 2 in that 3–2 win in the first fixture. Rashford also got an assist.
I believe in our attack.
One thing MUFC will have to improve on though, is watching the line. In that first meeting, United were caught offside on 9 occasions with several coming in the first half. Beat the trap, and we’re in.
The attack, and mainly Hojlund, is very important to United’s high press. We have been one of the better teams at this and with Emery wanting to build up from the back, this could be an important aspect of our play.
The first goal will be key as well as in all of our games this year, United have managed to get the first goal and relatively early on. We have had a goal or 2 just after the 20 minute mark. This could help us in unsettling what will most likely be a very nervy Villa Park looking at their recent results.
United Form
While it isn’t anything special, United did move up to 6th after that win last time out. Those 3 goals also improved our GD but again, it ain’t nothin’ special. Still with a -1 goal difference, MUFC remain the only side with a negative GD in the top 10 and even despite those 3 goals, are the lowest scorers in the top 10 with 31.
Even Chelsea (38) have scored more. They’re on page two of the table 🙃.
Our 38 points mean that we are 8 points off 4th place Aston Villa on 46. Hence why this is a crunch game for both.
Away from home, we know how crap we are against the better sides. We have only the solitary win on the road against this season’s top 10. That was in our last away trip at Wolves. And that was only just a win.
We’ve won as many (5) as we’ve lost with just the one draw at Anfield. Weirdly though, four of our seven clean sheets have come away from Old Trafford.
In our last five away league games, we’ve only managed the 5 goals (4 of which came at Wolves) while failing to score in three of those games suffering three defeats in that time. So while there is much positivity around our football at the moment, our away form is one of the areas that needs serious improvement.
Aston Villa
As for Unai Emery and company, they’ve been arguably the standout team this campaign. Despite their 5–1 loss at Newcastle on opening night, Sir Alex Ferguson pipped them as one of the teams to watch out for.
As usual, he was right.
Villa are 4th in the table and have been in the top 4 basically since the start. With 14 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses, their 46 points means they are only 5 behind 1st place Liverpool. A win for them on Sunday would be massive.
Emery’s team are also one of the league’s highest scorers with 49 with only City (54) and LFC (52) having scored more. That is quite incredible.
Their recent form though, has taken a hit. 2 wins, 2 losses and 1 draw in their last five isn’t anything special and is actually worse than ours. However, at home, Villa are the 3rd best side with the joint-most wins (11) along with Liverpool and Arsenal.
But their only home defeat was in their last match. A 1–3 loss to Newcastle saw their incredible home run of 17 games unbeaten come to an end. A run that stretched back to a 2–4 loss against Arsenal in Feb last year.
Their last two games in all comps though, has seen two home losses. Chelsea managed to beat them in an FA Cup 4th round replay on Wednesday night. Chelsea.
C’mon, we got this 😅.
Since they’ve lost two from two at home, they’ll be looking to get back on track so it could be a long night for ten Hag.
Villa have scored 7 goals in their last five matches, 2 of which came in back-to-back 1–0 wins over City and Arsenal. They absolutely fucked City up as Emery’s side had 22 shots to City’s, get this, 2 🤯. That’s right, at Villa Park, City, treble winners City, only had 2 shots on goal all game.
Wow.
Even the possession was close to 50–50.
Against the ‘big six’, the only games they didn’t win was away at Anfield and Old Trafford. The rest were wins including 1–2 at Spurs and 0–1 at the Bridge.
Okay, maybe we don’t got this.
As I said earlier, United did have the upper hand over Villa in the game at Old Trafford. In the second half, the home side were all over Emery’s team with a good deal of that being down to Villa’s high line.
With Emery being a good coach, I’d expect him to have a plan to combat this. But another part of me feels that as they are at home, that is their style and are in need of a performance, I think they’ll play in that same way which will work in our favour.
We know they boast some serious talent with the likes of Emiliano Martinez, in form striker Ollie Watkins, John McGinn, Douglas Luiz, Leon Bailey, Pau Torres and a host of others.
While none of those are elite names, what they are is a good team who do exactly what the manager wants, understand his system and work extremely hard.
United will have their work cut out.
Recent Meetings
We all remember the most recent of meetings. Who can forget it? Quite the spectacle as United came back from 2 goals down to win 3–2, Hojlund with that emotional celebration after getting his first Premier League goal.
He’s scored in every game since.
But in the last five between the sides, it is even-stevens. Two United wins, two Villa wins, one draw sandwiched inbetween.
Our last win at Villa Park was in a 1–3 triumph in the 20/21 season.
This suggests it could go either way.
Prediction
You know what, I would actually take a draw. Looking at Villa’s amazing home form, who they’ve beaten and the fact that we suck on the road, a draw isn’t the worst.
But of course, the win is what we truly want especially when gunning for top 4. 8 points is the current gap. Get it down to 5, and we’re in with a chance. Lose and I fear that the top 4 race for us could be over.
Either Villa will continue their poor home form or they will bounce back.
As the jinx has worked for the last two games, let’s see if we can go three for three. Villa to win 2–1 😉.
Good ebening.
#AVLMUN #PL #EriktenHag #UnaiEmery #mufc #ggmu #Villa #GlazersOut
