Series 1: Time Series Forecasting and Exploration Episode 1

Episode 1

Welcome to my first series on Time Series Forecasting and Exploration Episode 1

What we gonna do in this Episode 1:

  1. What is Time Series Analysis?
  2. Why we need to know about Times Series Forecasting?
  3. Goal of Time Series?

Time series analysis is the collection of data at specific intervals(both continuous and discrete) over a period of time to aid in the forecasting future. It is the sequence of observations taken sequentially in time.

These applications rely on a form of data that measures how things change over time.


Lets Consider a Simple Scenario in business problem

We need to estimate future sales and future income based on past income obtained, i.e. data from past sales.

The analysis of time series is extremely useful to business in planning future operations. We can make intelligent choices regarding investment, production, demand, sales,marketing and inventory. It helps in the evaluation of current success which can be compared with expected performance and analyse the cause of variation in meeting both the expected and achieved. It also helps facilitating comparison between different time series.

Time Series Forecasting helps improve forecast and to describe the main factors of influence with respect to time.This helps us to plan for the actions based on past, like where to increase marketing,advertisement, how much of which products to keep in stock.


Goals in Time Series:
Based on the objective we will be defining our goal in time series.

i) Identifying the nature of the scenario represented by the sequence of observations.(Descriptive analysis)

a)Overall trends

b)Patterns(Seasonal and Trend)

c)Outliers

ii)Forecasting i.e Predicting future based on past values

iii) Spectral analysis( Frequency Domain) how variation in a time series may be accounted for by cyclic components

iv) Intervention analysis Certain event that occurs that changes a time series(Useful for the determining the effect of an campaign) like the effects of life after marriage 👊 or after a girl friend 😣

v) Explanative Analysis (Cross Correlation) To determine the relationship between two time series data sets


Stay Tune for my next Episode 2 in series Time Series Forecasting and Exploration to know more about goals and exploration in time series analysis.