Discussion: Will the planet contain 75 billion connected devices in the next five years?
There is a lot of hype around the Internet of Things (IoT). Analysts from different firms envision different numbers of connected devices by the end of this decade. Even so, all predictions have a thing in common — the figures are staggering. In 5 years from now Cisco estimates 50 billion, while Morgan Stanley foresees this number as high as 75 billion of things connected to the internet. Can this hype be justified? Well, analyst’s job is to make predictions, while real adoption curves depend on us, consumers.
We’re now at 8.7 billion
Can you guess how many devices are now connected? Earlier Cisco study estimated about 8.7 billion, which is roughly 1 device per every of the 8 billion people living on this planet. Given that today most IoT devices are smarter versions of their previously dumb cousins, for this number to ninefold we would need to replace a lot of existing equipment. And here is a problem — will people be willing to replace perfectly working hardware?
Connecting stuff to the internet is valuable. It helps to save time, energy and it unlocks new features. Also it feels futuristic, most of us want to live in the future, right? But let’s look at normal lifespans for home appliances.
Average lifespans of household gadgets aren’t short.
Average refrigerator will last for 13–19 years depending on its type. Washers and dryers should work at least 10+ years, while dishwashers seem to wear faster and hold up for about 9 years. Expect to to change your stove after using it for 15 years and when was the last time you changed your air conditioner or water heater? These two seem to need a replacement once in a generation. So what do these numbers say?
Smarten-up “dumb” objects with add-ons
IoT future belongs to add-ons. Well, at least its short term future. Don’t get it wrong. As silicon chips (still!) continue to get cheaper and a smaller, you will certainly see more of smart fridges, stoves, and dishwashers, just not as fast as most IoT sales people want you to believe. Meanwhile the stage belongs to add-on manufactures that will be able to smarten-up dumb household objects without a need to replace existing (and most of the time perfectly well functioning) hardware.
This movement is already getting traction. There are startups that can help you to connect objects as ordinary and inanimate as toothbrushes, while others are working on micro robots to remotely control more specific gizmo features, and don’t forget already popular smart electric switches. Beyond the need to replace existing devices there is another very valuable aspect. Add-ons will help to understand the true potential of the Internet of Things. Let’s be honest, companies alone cannot fully grasp what consumers really want and can do with their connected things. Real insights will be made after early adopters have their turn to play and experiment inside their garages, yards and kitchens. And only when this is over, we will see a smart fridge in each and every house.
