Don’t Stop Thinkin’ About…1992?

The more I think about the state of the 2024 campaign, the more I’m reminded about the 1992 election. For those of you old enough to remember, think back. For those of you who don’t remember or are too young to remember, let me paint the parallels.

To start off with, the Democrats, after a tough nominating process, had a damaged presumptive nominee in Bill Clinton. How bad was it? Well, after the Gennifer Flowers allegations and the other “bimbo eruptions,” Bill Clinton was sitting in THIRD place in polling in June. Yes, THIRD place behind Ross Perot (39%) and President George H.W. Bush (31%) with just 25% support. Things looked bad.

Here, President Biden, despite easily wrapping up the nomination, is polling in second place and dropping. Plus, while he has better personal morals than Bill Clinton, he still has been hounded by nagging questions that reinforce the negative view of him.

So…what changed? Bill Clinton went on to win the popular vote and 370 electoral votes.

What changed is that on July 9, 1992, Gov. Bill Clinton announced his running mate of Tennessee Sen. Al Gore. This was seen as a departure from the norm in place up to that point to try to balance the ticket philosophically, geographically, and to make up for a candidate’s perceived weakness. Instead, Gore, who ran for President himself just four years earlier, was seen as a reinforcement of Clinton’s strengths. They were aligned philosophically, from neighboring states, and close in age to each other. This created a burst of energy and momentum heading into the Democratic National Convention that started the following week, as seen in increased fundraising and undecided and independent voters giving the Democratic ticket a fresh look.

On July 16, 1992, as Bill Clinton was preparing to give his acceptance speech, the frontrunner, Ross Perot, dropped out of the race, citing a “revitalized” Democratic Party. This was a groundbreaking development that Bill Clinton capitalized on. He gave a barn-burner of an acceptance speech that night, paid respect to Ross Perot and his supporters, and following the convention launched an immediate bus tour with the Gore family through the battleground states. This sustained the momentum of the moment. Bill Clinton received the largest post-convention bounce in history, going from 25% before the convention, to 55% in the polls and vaulting him into first place. A position he would not relinquish for the rest of the campaign despite Ross Perot attempting to restart his campaign later on.

What happened was a significant shock to the status quo that changed the fundamental trajectory of the race.

Here, we have another crazy person running for President (Ross Perot in 1992, Donald Trump in 2024), an unpopular, older incumbent President (George H.W. Bush in 1992, Joe Biden in 2024), and a significant shock to the status quo (Perot dropping out in 1992, Biden in 2024) leading to a surge in enthusiasm and interest in the younger Democratic candidate (Bill Clinton in 1992, Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024).

We have already seen about $50 million in online donations to the now-Harris campaign just since President Biden announced his withdrawal. Today, the primary Harris campaign super PAC announce $150 million in new funding and commitments.

And there’s more big events coming down the pike shortly. Kamala Harris will have to secure the nomination, name a running mate, and have the stage at the Democratic National Convention. All factors that helped catapult Bill Clinton in 1992. Now, I am not projecting a 30-point post-convention bounce, but it’s not unreasonable to see Harris take a small, but solid lead in polling, both nationally and in swing states. This year, we still have an old and unpopular President on the ballot who is still crazy as an opponent. It’s not out of the realm of possibility to see Harris take a lead that she rides through Election Days, especially as she’s starting from a closer position in the polls than Bill Clinton did.

No, Kamala Harris is not Bill Clinton. But, that’s not a bad thing. She’s a strong, accomplished candidate in her own right. More importantly, she represents the future, while Trump is obsessed with himself and the past. Elections are about the future, and the candidate that presents the most compelling vision for the future is usually the one that wins. I’m betting that Kamala Harris will do just that.