Self Driving Disruption
A brief look at some of the industries and occupations that Self Driving Cars will disrupt within the next 20 years.
Let’s take a look at some of the occupations that self driving cars could potentially disrupt over the next 20 years.
Taxi and Bus Drivers
Autonomous Vehicles will make car sharing programs more prevalent. Similar to how AirBnB allocates people who have a spare room with people who want one, the people who own self driving cars can loan them out to other people who want to use them when they are not needed, such as when the owner is working or asleep. Amazon or some other retailer could rent peoples driverless cars to help with delivering items, possibly using a boot mechanism to deliver goods. This would allow self driving car owners to make money without doing anything, this may incentivise and increase adoption of self driving cars.
One study found that an average 2-mile taxi trip in New York City costs $8 to $13, depending on traffic conditions. It estimated that a fleet of 9,000 driverless cars could replace the city’s fleet of Yellow Cabs and operate for an average of 80 cents for a 2-mile trip. A more than 10-fold difference.
Taxi’s also get an extra seat availability as driver is not present. They can garner more efficient operation and use less gas by sending custom number of seat taxis for customers current needs. They won’t procrastinate, talk back or unionise and they they won’t commit occupational fraud or harassment to customers.
If computer route planning algorithms which find other people to share the ride with, similar to how UberPool works, then the fare could be even cheaper, much cheaper than ever owning a car. Parking wardens wouldn’t be needed as once a car drops you off it can return home to drive someone else in your family, or pick another person up if a taxi owns it.
In 2010, urban areas of the United States contain 80.7% of the population. 51% of americans commute 10 miles or less and 29% commute 1–5 Miles. There has been a large drop in the percentage of 16–39 year-olds getting a license. A study last year found that driving by young people decreased 23 percent between 2001 and 2009. Young people, which prefer to live in cities/urban areas, will be the early adopters of self driving cars ridesharing services.
Truck and Delivery Drivers
Self Driving Electric Trucks will happily work 24/7, every day of the year with no breaks, holidays, sick days, lateness, distractions, tiredness, hangovers, complaints, strikes, wage rises, overtime pay, training or retraining, compensation, severance pay, contract negotiations, bonuses, maternity leave, require pensions and only demand a ‘salary’ equal to the cost of energy.
They will be reliable, constantly alert and behave rationally without emotion eliminating human error and bias thus reducing risk of crashes meaning fewer lawsuits or insurance costs. They will require less logistic route or shift planning for swapping drivers.
Vehicles transporting goods wouldn’t need heat or air conditioning for the driver, saving on energy. Vehicles in general will have more free space for extra stock or passengers as driver space is not required. The car is becoming a computer technology, it can be easily improved with new software updates. The on-board computers and sensors will continually become cheaper, more powerful, energy efficient and smarter.
Those 3.5 million truck drivers driving all over the country stop regularly to eat, drink, rest, and sleep. Entire businesses have been built around serving their wants and needs. Think restaurants, motels and communities which rely on truckers will be disrupted if humans no longer drive trucks.
Car Manufacturers and Car Salespeople
A car is often a person’s second largest capital expenditure, after a home, yet a car sits unused some 90% of the time. Optimising use of cars will mean less need to be made. Columbia University’s The Earth Institute forecasts the reduction of United States’ fleet of vehicles by a factor of 10.
The average number of vehicles per American household is currently 2.1. According to a study by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, that could dip as low as 1.2, a reduction of 43%, if self-driving cars become a reality and people take advantage of it as expected. 42% of American households need two cars today. If and when self-driving models are here, however, only 15% would need two vehicles available. The need for three or more cars would plunge as well, from 26.5% today to less than 2% in an era of self-driving cars that could “return-to-home” when the need arose. If car usage is being optimised then less need to be made and sold.
Mechanics
Following on there being less cars being made then less maintenance work such as checkups would be needed. Less car repairs are required due to reduced number of crashes as self driving cars a allow a much safer transportation experience.Less vehicle modifications due to less people owning cars.
Public transport will become more of a viable option for people as bus companies can afford to run more services. Also with tracking software similar to Uber cars people can plan their journeys better. A google maps integration which has every car on the road connected to waze, calculates how long until the bus will be at the stop nearest to you accurately and notifies when you should leave to catch the bus to work, no more waiting around in, almost on demand public transport allowing more convenience for people.
Cars will also increasingly become electronic like Tesla as they allow better fuel efficiency among other benefits. Electric vehicles have lower maintenance costs as compared to internal combustion vehicles, since electronic systems break down much less often than the mechanical systems in conventional vehicles, and the fewer mechanical systems on board last longer due to the better use of the electric engine. They do not require oil changes too.
A company named Veeo Systems is developing vehicles as small as 2-seaters to as large as 70-seat buses, and will be testing them in 30 US cities by the end of 2016. If 70 people each ditch their car for a bus then that's less mechanic work.
Doctors/Surgeons/Lawyers/Insurers
Self Driving Electric Cars are no longer just mechanical, they are a digital device and will follow Moore’s Law, we shall see computing technology improve approximately 10,000 fold over the next 20 years and this will apply now to car technology. The affordability of autonomous driving systems will improve dramatically. A car you buy can continually improve due to software upgrades over the internet and become safer each update.
In 2012, an estimated 2.36 million people were injured in motor vehicle traffic crashes in the US. Autonomous cars would be much safer for drivers and pedestrians, eliminating many of the accidents caused by speeding, drunk driving and human error. Some professions would have less work to do as less injuries would result in less insurance claims or injury lawsuits and medical aid and rehabilitation visits needed.
Consulting firm KPMG, released a white paper saying that the personal car insurance business could drop as much as 60%, with loss costs dropping from $120 billion today to $50 billion within 25 years. KPMG is predicting an overall 80% drop in accidents over the next 25 years.
The firm believes that within ten years, all new cars sold will be autonomous. Further speculating, that by 2025 manufacturers will have systems in place to retrofit older manual cars with autonomous features, resolving the big question of how self-driving cars will interact with ones still controlled by human beings. It also means if people are not driving then there is no need to learn, so driving instructors will face disruption. If cars will follow the road rules so will not speed or drink drive or run red lights then traffic cops are not needed.
Train and Plane Industry
Short journeys etc. less than 500 miles, may lose some customers as self driving cars can travel faster, expert member of IEEE, Broggi, believes that, “speed limits of up to 100 miles/hour (160 km/hour) are absolutely possible by 2040.
Think of custom cars with TV’s, game consoles or beds in, people will prefer not having to share journeys with other people(crying babies). Would allow people more comfort, ability to recline chair back or more space for leg room. Allows you to leave for your destination whenever you want, no more set times, schedule your self driving car to pick you up at any time or day, more convenience. Driverless car research may also enable train drivers, pilots and boat operators to be replaced.
Retail
Most people would like items delivered when they are home, companies won’t have to worry about getting staff to work evenings, could have a custom delivery van wait outside which sends an alert to you to collect package, could also combine with Amazon Air. I describe how retail will be disrupted in more detail in this article.
Looks at how online shopping with self driving car performing delivery faster, cheaper and on demand will create a convenience that some brick and mortar stores will struggle to compete with. The article also looks at other popular occupations, mostly low skilled, are facing disruption soon.
As of CES 2015, predictions for an on-sale self-driving car are on the order of two to five years away, or 2017 to 2020. The general public may be slow to adopt self driving cars but businesses and startups will utilise them instantly as they will see the potential to out-compete rivals and increase profits by being able to deliver items and people safely at much lower costs.
We can be fairly certain that these occupations above will experience job disruptions over the next 20 years as companies will be very quick to adopt these cost saving advantages.
We also know that mental work is under threat of automation.
And High skills such as STEM are difficult to obtain and also under threat of disruption.
With all this disruption happening in such a short time frame much unnecessary suffering could happen if we wait and react to it rather than preparing to prevent it, we can ease any potential disruption effects and make the transition so much easier for people. We should, and we can all equally enjoy the wealth and prosperity what all this wonderful technology is bringing us. I discuss 5 solutions to achieve this.
The Government needs to incentivize Worker Self-Directed Enterprises(Worker Co-op’s) and encourage an increase in Unions(especially for self employed workers) to bring democracy to the workplace. This will reduce income/wealth inequality which will raise working people’s wages. It will also keep jobs from being outsourced, reduce climate change and force companies to invest and allow their workers time to transition to new jobs or skills, if they decide to automate their roles.
A Lower Work Week and Increased Vacation Time(which is achievable as people’s incomes have been raised by Worker Co-ops/Unions) to spread out decreasing amount of jobs more equally which will increase economic productivity and prevent social division between people who work and those who don’t or can’t work. The Government can also top up low wages by raising taxes on the super rich and preventing tax evasion. This will give us more leisure time to enjoy the wealth and prosperity this technology should rightfully be bringing us.
A solution discussed in The Disruption of Mental Work is Improving Education for people to gain higher skills at any age quickly and cheaply, the final solution is a Guaranteed Basic Income, which is needed as a safety net for people disrupted and unemployed, so they can retrain their skills for more complex jobs, without the fear of homelessness, child poverty for their children or going hungry. I discuss the solutions in more detail on my website.
