Mass Incarceration and the Republican Party- Not Russia- are Rigging US Elections
In the wake of Donald Trump’s victory, the centre and left collapsed into a familiar ritual of finger pointing. The same news sources that had predicted a Clinton landslide began publishing think-pieces on who, or what, was to blame for his victory. Jill Stein, Wikileaks, Vladimir Putin, racist working class white people, the Electoral College, the FBI, Clinton, Bernie Sanders: every explanation had its day on blogs and in broadsheets. Predictably, centrists blamed the left and the left blamed centrists.
Most of these pieces lacked evidence that the authors particular culprit was anything more than one factor among many. It is impossible to deny that if the Green party did not exist Clinton may have gained more votes; Clinton may have gained more votes Wikileaks and the FBI had been less focused on e-mails. However, these explanations do not explain why, with an ever shrinking share of votes cast, the Republican party now controls the presidency, the Senate and the House of Representatives. Neither do they explain why the Republican party has an unassailable majority in many state houses throughout the USA.
Of Missing Black and Latino Men.
According to the CNN exit poll, an estimated 52 percent of white women and 62 percent of white men voted for Donald Trump. He won the ‘white vote’ by almost 20 percent; he lost the rest of the vote by over 53 percent.
The US 2012 census found that women make up 51.73 percent of the voting-age population, men make up 48.26 percent. It is reasonable to assume that there is no significant variation in gender balance between different racial groupings in the US. However, if one divides the voting population by both race and gender stark disparities begin to emerge.
White voters made up 71 percent of the exit poll respondents, black voters 12 percent, and Latino voters 11. White men made up approximately 34 percent of voters which is 47.88 percent of white voters; white women 37 percent of voters and 52.11 percent of white voters. By contrast, Black women made up 7 percent of voters and 58.33 percent of the black vote; black men made up 5 percent of voters and 41.67 percent of black voters. Latino women making up 54.55 percent of latino voters, and men 45.45 percent.
An estimated 135.5 million people voted in the election. At 12 percent of voters, black voters made up approximately 16.26 million votes. Of these, 9.48 million identified themselves as black women and 6.78 million identified themselves as black men. Similarly, of the 14.91 million Latino voters, 8.13 million identified themselves as latino women whereas 6.78 million identified themselves as latino men. 2.7 million fewer black men than black women voted; 1.35 million fewer latino men than latino women voted. To reach the gender balance represented by the white voting population, 1.93 million more black men would need to vote as well as 691,611 more latino men. This population of voting-age black and latino men exists but its constituents either didn’t or couldn’t vote.
According to the exit polls, black men voted for Clinton by a 69 point and latino men by a 31 percent margin. If these missing voters voted in a pattern consistent with black men and latino men as a whole, Clinton would have claimed a resounding majority of these 2.62 million votes. This would have earned her a net 1.54 million extra votes.
Incarcerating the vote
I do not have definitive proof of the exact cause of the missing black and latino voters, only the statistical equivalent of circumstantial evidence. However, that evidence suggests that racial biases in the justice system and consequent disenfranchisement played a significant role in decreasing the number of voting-age black and latino men.
In many states, a felony conviction loses you the right to vote for a period that ranges from the length of your parole to life. In North Carolina felons lose the right to vote for the length of their parole; in Florida, only intervention by the courts or the governor can restore a felon’s right to vote.
In 2013 there were 2.22 million people incarcerated in state and federal prisons in the United States and a further 4.75 million people on probation and parole. Despite similar crime rates, Black and Latino people are far more likely to be convicted of a felony than white people. According to prison policy initiative data from 2010, Black Americans — about 16 percent of the US population — make up about 40 percent of the incarcerated population; Latino Americans — 16 percent of the US population — constitute about 19 percent of the incarcerated population. This means that of the 6.97 million people incarcerated or under ‘correctional supervision,’ at least 4.11 million are either black or latino. Over 90 percent of incarcerated persons in the US are men.
Clinton lost North Carolina by a little over 177,000; she lost Florida by just under 120,000 votes. In North Carolina, where 61 percent of incarcerated persons are black, there are 37,000 incarcerated persons. This alone is clearly not enough to change the result. However, in 2014, there were over 100,000 people incarcerated in Florida and over 140,000 people on parole.This population alone would produce a net 79,488 votes for Clinton. Furthermore, there are 1.5 million people in Florida with a felony conviction who have completed parole but still cannot vote. While those identifying as black or African-Caribbean make up 17 percent of Florida’s population, they make up 48 percent of people incarcerated in the state. A full quarter of the state’s black population has had their voting rights stripped.
Aside from Florida and North Carolina, in Wisconsin- a surprise Trump win- Clinton lost by a little over 22,000 votes. This in a vote marked by low voter turnout, especially among the state’s Black population. In Wisconsin, which in 2013 had the dubious distinction having the highest rate of incarceration for Black men, felons do not reclaim their voting rights until the end of their parole and probation. There are over 104,000 people either incarcerated or under state supervision in the state and, while Black people make about 6 percent of the population, over 38 percent of the incarcerated population are black. Similarly, in Michigan, a state Trump won by a little over 10,000 votes, at the end of 2014 over 49,000 people were incarcerated, 49 percent of which were Black.
Suppressing, Purging and Ignoring Voters
While mass incarceration contributed to President-elect Trump’s victory, it was clearly not the sole contributor. However, this was the first presidential election held after the 2013 gutting of the Voting Rights Act, the 1968 law aimed at ending racial voting suppression laws. The repeal of section 5 of the Voting Rights Act — which mandated federal reviews of new voting laws in states with histories of racial discrimination such as North Carolina — has led to the proliferation of voter ID laws and voter purges.
After the repeal, the Republican-controlled North Carolina legislature passed a raft of voter ID laws and early voting restrictions, many of which have since been struck down by the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals. The impact of those laws combined with lower numbers of polling places and voter purges targeting democratic-leaning demographics resulted in a decrease of voter turnout among Black Americans in North Carolina from 23 to 20 percent of total votes. Accounts of long lines for early voting and people not voting due to long wait times provides anecdotal evidence at least to the fact that voter suppression reduced African American turnout.
Similarly, voter ID laws, such as the one currently enforced in Wisconsin, act as de-facto poll-taxes as poor communities lack the means to acquire ID. People of colour make up far higher percentages of the population of those earning less than $30,000 than they do the population as a whole. While they catch poor white people as well, these laws lead to lower turnouts of Black and Latino voters.
The exit poll did not ask whether voters cast a provisional ballot and whether their ballots were counted. This raises the possibility that there are a significantly higher number of missing voters than implied by the exti poll.
In Detroit, Michigan alone, there were over 75,000 votes, mostly in majority low-income and minority neighbourhoods which were not counted. 87 voting machines in the city did not function. Similar events occurred in Flint and Dearborn, Michigan. Republican officials in Michigan have blocked attempts to recount ballots. Additionally, across multiple states, black and latino voters have been kicked off voter lists by the interstate cross-check program. This program purports to be a system to stop people voting in two states. However, there have been numerous, documented instances of the program removing voters with common African American and Latino names from voting lists. These voters may be able to cast provisional ballots in their state but those ballots may never be counted.
Without mass incarceration, mass disenfranchisement, and voter suppression, the Trump presidency would not be possible. In fact, there is adequate evidence that at least some of the states that turned, or remained red this election did so due to repression of black and latino voters. Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, and Florida have 70 electoral college votes between them -more than enough to change the results of the election. However, mass incarceration remains a national problem and simply releasing people from prison will not restore their voting rights.
It is undeniable that the 2016 election propelled those with histories of racism to the highest levels of government. However, I highly doubt that the proportion Americans who are racist has increased. Further, the true threat to democracy is not new and does not come for beyond U.S. borders. Rather, a decades long campaign at state, and federal levels has undermined the electoral system, skewing the results in a specific direction.
Sources:
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls
http://www.electproject.org/2016g
http://www.npr.org/2016/11/12/501848636/7-reasons-donald-trump-won-the-presidential-election
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/north-carolina-early-voting/506963/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37889032
https://www.prisonpolicy.org/reports/rates.html
http://felonvoting.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=000286
