The Non-Alcoholic Trend Cycle

When considering the meteoric rise of non-alcoholic beverages from a category traditionally reserved for designated drivers and 12-step program devotees, to something that’s now part of the larger cultural zeitgeist; it truly baffles the mind how fast this niche exploded. One minute it felt like we were all enjoying our beer/wine/spirits as we normally would; the next thing we knew, grocery stores were practically flooded with options for consuming without actually consuming (if you know what I mean). Now, as we approach wine’s big initiative to win back that lost market share via the “Come Over October” campaign, we have to ask ourselves what the root cause of this swing in public sentiment was in the first place.

It All Starts With The Pandemic

Like every good piece of research on the state of our world will say for the next half century, it all started with the pandemic. There has never been another event in our lifetimes that has fundamentally shifted the collective perspectives of so many people at scale. Regardless of your political affiliation, personal background, religious leaning, or upbringing; there were very few of us truly equipped to handle that level of social and societal stress. So, as we ventured ever deeper into this unrecognizable world of lockdowns, masking, and social distancing, we desperately grasped for some means to cope with it all. Therein lies the rub…

Flash forward to the current day, where we’ve reemerged from hiding into the “new normal”, and we’re desperately trying to piece what remains of our social fabric back together. As we navigate towards some form of recognizable equilibrium, the specter of COVID still hangs over us. This unwelcome guest in our minds continues to sporadically manifest itself through our fear, suspicion, impatience and vitriol toward one another. I think we can all agree though, things are genuinely starting to get better.

Mapping Trend Cycles

With all that being said, let’s take a step back and consider a couple of trends we’ve seen play out over the last few years:

Political Discourse

This is a great place to start, as we were in the midst of a shift in US political culture prior to the onset of COVID. As a country, we had come together to vote in 2016 and elected a Republican president after 8 years of leadership by the Democrats. According to Gallup, Donald Trump had an average approval rating of 41% throughout his term of office, which would make him objectively controversial. This extended disconnect between majority public sentiment and the ruling party seeded division in our population that was subsequently supercharged by the events of the pandemic. By isolating completely from society, we as citizens were driven even further apart and almost lost the ability to coexist with one another given opposing viewpoints.

BUT, given time and adjustment post-COVID, our country has begun to gradually realign and find the common ground that previously united us again.

Reliance on Technology

At this point, I can’t name a single person that hasn’t participated in a Zoom call. Technology has always been a strength of the US as a country, and that was never more evident than during the pandemic. When circumstances forced us into isolation, technology was there to help us communicate, keep us entertained, and allowed us to continue working. As someone who’s always loved tech, life constantly felt like that magical moment when I was a kid, and all my friends logged on to AOL instant messenger at the same time. The internet gave us the ability to make our town square digital, and held society together during one of the most trying times of our history. Unfortunately, right before our very eyes, this once mythical digital oasis morphed into nothing more than a verbal battle royale fueled by anger.

BUT, given time and adjustment post-COVID, we’ve been able to see the flawed promise of a completely digital existence exposed. Although we continue to love our technology, we’ve come to realize that no amount of Zoom calls can ever replace a hug from those we love.

Alcohol’s Trend Starts Later

Remember, both of these shifts in society were preexisting when the pandemic began. COVID only acted as an accelerant that fueled their fire and elevated their presence to an unhealthy level in our lives. The story with alcohol is playing out in a slightly different manner though.

Before the pandemic began, the majority of younger folks in society were still in the midst of developing healthy habits around drinking. It was glorified as a right of passage for your college years, encouraged as social lubricant after work, and played an active roll in many of our weekly lives. That being said, showing up to work hungover would still get you ostracized, and drinking outside of the evenings was something reserved for vacations or tailgate parties.

We love to say that we drank during the pandemic because there was nothing better to do. In reality, alcohol was the coping mechanism we used to numb ourselves enough that lockdown life became bearable. As time went on and things began to reopen, we turned to alcohol again as a means of celebrating. Oh boy, did we celebrate too. After now years of hyper consumption, our bodies were practically begging for the alternative that NA beverages provided.

BUT, given time and adjustment post-COVID, this too shall pass.

In the process of objectively looking at trend cycles, we know that flagrant alcohol abuse wasn’t a preexisting issue before the pandemic began. There were enough social guardrails in place to keep everyone accountable, and most weren’t exposed to the level of stress that creates a need to cope. It wasn’t until the onset of the pandemic itself that consumption began to ramp up. Taking that into account, alcohol’s return back to a similar pattern we saw pre-COVID isn’t at risk, it’s just on a different schedule.

So, throughout the month of October and beyond, we as an industry need to continue our efforts to frame reasonable social consumption in a positive light. What we’re facing here isn’t another push for nationwide prohibition. By my calculations, it’s just the winding down of another pandemic era trend that peaked later than the rest. Just don’t forget, when the dust finally settles and the consumers are ready to come back: broader affordability, wider market presence, and fostering an environment that welcomes all equally.

;)