Any Trump impeachment won’t happen before 2019

Naufal Yudiana
Jul 25, 2017 · 3 min read

Democrats should not bother talking up impeachment of Donald Trump before 2019, and not only because that’s the earliest point they would possibly have the votes in Congress.

Despite their continuous outrage, impeachment remains a purely political process. Republicans control both houses of congress and won’t ever vote to impeach or convict.


Trump retains around 80–90% in approval rating among Republicans, and in the high 30’s with the general public. To persuade Republican congresspeople, and voters, to ditch Trump, like they did with Nixon in 1974, you need an approval rating in the mid-20’s at most.

Still loved by the base

The Trump administration has a very resilient base, with a low ceiling but a high floor in terms of approval. America continues to be fiercely divided and partisan, and his scorched earth strategy, with all his vicious attacks on the media and opponents, has solidified his albeit small core of supporters.

Trump will therefore most likely stay between 35–40% in approval. This won’t impeach Trump, but it will most likely win the House back for the Democrats. Logically, the earliest opportunity the Democrats can pass articles of impeachment on the floor of the House is in January 2019.


Even so, the Democrats are not helping themselves or the country by focusing on Russia.

In focusing on the Russian investigation Democrats would most likely make it a partisan issue and push Republicans to defend Trump. No evidence is likely to come up soon that will definitively tip the balance, especially not through Congressional investigations. Better let special counsel Robert Mueller carry on his investigations, and the media and voters to see the facts for themselves.

Furthermore, national security has never been the Democrats’ strong point, a reputation reinforced by their 2016 standard-bearer Hillary Clinton’s tainted association with her email scandal and Benghazi. Attacking the Republicans on this domain simply won’t do.

Finally, the Democrats are better able to get the new Republicans — white, working-class — back into their fold by focusing on domestic issues on which they had historically excelled, and which President Trump stole from them last election. He is particularly vulnerable to attacks on, say, healthcare and taxes, precisely because he promised last election the contrary to what Republicans are doing in government today.


Russia is a particularly useful weapon for Trump, not the Democrats. He can use it to push the ‘sore-loser’ narrative on the Democrats and distract from the Republicans’ objectively poor record in government — with their inability to pass any meaningful legislation or reform. Getting voters back will involve pointing this out to voters, not allegations and hearsay on possible treason.

To do that, Democrats must try to resolve their ideological divisions and come up with an appealing policy narrative and platform for 2018. They need to focus their energy on this, and let internal debates play themselves out to come out united for the mid-term elections. If there is one thing Republicans have taught us, is that faking ideological unity will completely paralyse and backfire on you in government.

Welcome to a place where words matter. On Medium, smart voices and original ideas take center stage - with no ads in sight. Watch
Follow all the topics you care about, and we’ll deliver the best stories for you to your homepage and inbox. Explore
Get unlimited access to the best stories on Medium — and support writers while you’re at it. Just $5/month. Upgrade