NBA Championship 2023–24

The Nuggets won the NBA championship last year on the back of Nikola Jokic, the best NBA player on the planet, and a perfectly built complement of players to compensate for some of his defensive weaknesses and enhance his offensive strengths.

With the Nuggets championship, I decided to take a look back at the last 40 years of NBA winners, and see what traits they had in common, and what that might teach us about the winner of this upcoming season’s championship

Last year, I theorized that NBA champions always had a top player in the league, a former MVP still playing at his peak. I dug deeper into this, in hopes to find out how we could identify potential title winners.

I decided to define a “former MVP playing in his peak” as follows: someone who previously won NBA MVP before the upcoming season, and who made an all-NBA team the previous year. For example, going into last season, 5 teams would have made this criteria: Bucks (Giannis), Denver (Jokic), Warriors (Curry), Lakers (LeBron), and the Nets (Durant). Over the last 40 years in the NBA, 32 of the champions met this criteria (80%). Over that same time frame, there were 128 teams that met the criteria, meaning that 25% of them own the NBA title. First conclusion: If you have an MVP still playing at his prime, you have a great chance to win a title.

Of the 8 teams that did not meet this criteria, they divide into two buckets. The first is champions where they had a player win MVP that season that they won a title, as their star player emerged into the best player in the NBA. This was true for four of the eight teams (2015 Warriors, 2000 Lakers, 1995 Rockets, 1984 Celtics). In total, over the last 40 years, 13 teams have had the current season’s MVP and won the championship (32.5%). Second conclusion: Having the current season’s MVP boosts your odds of a championship significantly, but regular season and postseason success aren’t guaranteed.

The other 4 teams don’t meet the same type of strict criteria (2019 Raptors, 2004 Pistons, 1990 Pistons, 1989 Pistons). All four of them did make the playoffs the previous season. Aside from the 1990 Pistons, they all made a signicant trade either before or during the season (Raptors traded for Kawhi preseason and Marc Gasol in season, 2004 Pistons traded for Rasheed Wallace in season, and 1989 Pistons traded Dantley for Marc Aguirre in season). All three of those moves were for major players in their rotation. The Raptors and 2004 Pistons also changed their coach before the season. Third conclusion: Without an MVP, standing pat is not a viable path to winning a title.

Last season, I also looked at the last 4 playoffs, and found that teams that win the title need to be super elite on either offense or defense, and have at least 2, but probably three, elite defensive players in their rotation. The Nuggets met this (elite offensively, three extremely good defensive players in KCP, Bruce Brown, and Gordon).

I also wrote about how exhausting playoff defense is, and how hard it was to repeat in the conference finals. Both Boston and Miami did this, and Denver’s playoff games played was on the lower end of champions. I do think going far in the playoffs over repeat seasons is tough, but being further removed from the hectic-ness of Covid and the lockout, it may not be as much of a diminishing factor as before.

For starters, I’m cutting out Dallas, OKC, and the Clippers as teams I’m not going to bet. No team without an MVP missed the playoffs the year prior and then won the title, and I don’t think these teams will break the trend, even if they have the MVP this season (Luka, Shai) or make a big move (Harden to Clippers). Just too many weaknesses.

I’m also not betting Cleveland or Memphis. While they both could be the best defensive teams, the MVP is impossible for Memphis, and extremely unlikely for Cleveland, and there would just be too many trends ignored for them to capture the title.

That leaves me with the 6 teams with the best odds to win the title, Philadelphia, and Miami. First, let’s cover the teams without an in his prime MVP (Boston, Phoenix, Miami):

Boston:
Since I wrote my article before the season, Boston has made two major moves — the additions of Jrue and Porzingis.
First, the Celtics recent history is a little bit crazy, from a historical standpoint. The Celtics have made 5 conference finals over the last 7 seasons without winning an NBA title, which is a rarity. Other recent teams with that level of success of at least 5 conference finals over a span of at least 7 seasons.
2003–2008 Pistons: 6 straight conference finals. Won title in 2004.
1987–1991 Pistons: 5 straight conference finals. Won in 89 and 90.
1998–2004 Lakers: 5 conference finals in 7 seasons, won in 2000–2002
1999–2008 Spurs: 6 conference finals in 10 seasons, won 4 titles
2015–2019 Warriors: 5 straight NBA finals, 3 championships
1989–1998 Bulls: 8 in 10 seasons, 6 championships
1994–2000 Pacers: 5 in 7 seasons, 0 championships
1992–1998 Jazz: 5 in 7 seasons, 0 championships

Many of the above teams were dynasties. Except for the Bulls and Spurs, all of the teams runs were essentially done after 7 seasons. The reason the Celtics are so unprecedented is it feels that they are still in the middle of this run. Their roster has almost completely turned over during that span. Their two biggest comps (Jazz/Pacers) both had their best players at the tail end of their prime. In the past, it was harder to sustain runs. With the new rules in place regarding acquiring talent when over the second apron, it’s going to be even more difficult. Boston sensed this, and made large all-in moves, as their runway is probably 2–3 more seasons at most before a major retool (trading Jaylen Brown, for example).
The Celtics product on the floor is going to be fascinating, and they are pushing the limits of what is possible without a former (or current MVP). On the defensive side, Tatum, Holiday, and White is an absolutely incredible defensive trio. We saw this with Smart the last two seasons, and Holiday brings the same defensive strengths. They have the talent defensively to really impact Milwaukee’s offense (will get to that more below). On offense, Holiday and Kristaps are excellent fits. With their likely starters of Brown, Tatum, White, Holiday, and Kristaps, they have 4 solid to very good creators, and a ton of shooting on the floor. They are now the co-favorites at most places, and their top 6 (with Horford) is clearly upgraded from last season.
Here are my three primary concerns:
1. Mazzula was CLEARLY overmatched last season as head coach. The assistants are better, and its possible coaching could be less of an issue. But Mazzula is going to have to navigate a big man situation, figure out the bench rotation (especially for the playoffs), and how to manage a crunch time offense. Two of the three coaches who won titles without an in-prime MVP had lengthy track records of teams getting much better with them as coach, and Nurse was an unknown commodity who immediately proved his chops in the playoffs. The coach freaks me out.
2. Al Horford will be 37 years old, and by the time the conference finals rolled around last year, he looked a lot worse. Porzingis has struggled to stay healthy, and the last time he was in the playoffs he was irrelevant. The biggest team weakness rotation wise is the big men, and it’s possible they won’t get enough here between injuries and decline.
3. Is Tatum good enough? From a best player perspective, is he closer to Kawhi (a playoff overachiever) or Malone (decent playoff numbers, but shrank in some big moments)? Can he make a leap? These are really tough questions to answer, and it continues to put them down as a possible anomaly if they win the title.
Ultimately, I think this is the best Boston team in this era. They have done as much from a roster construction standpoint to get to the top with Tatum as their best player. But I’m in a “believe it when I see it” mode, and definitely don’t want to bet that at shorter than +1000.

Phoenix:
For starters, Durant was not all-NBA last season, and his time as being super elite in the playoffs may be over. But like Boston, Phoenix rebooted their roster this summer with two major trades.
We are only three years past Ayton being viewed as a top 5 center, and a center who wasn’t taken off the floor at the highest levels. But the Ayton situation reminds me of the 88–89 Pistons and Adrian Dantley. Dantley was asked to cede some of his minutes to Rodman, but he put himself ahead of the team, and was offended, spoiling their chemistry. They traded him for Aguirre and never looked back.
The Suns were not winning the title with Ayton because he didn’t want to be there, didn’t like his teammates, and his play showed it. They had to swap him, and their overall title chances are better from a chemistry perspective.
The Beal addition could be helpful. But unlike in Brooklyn, where Harden was a great passer and Kyrie was a solid one, Beal isn’t an amazing passer, and is ill equipped to be the point guard. I think they have diminished returns for him.
I’m really struggling to figure out how the defense can be good enough to win a title (approaching top 10 level) without any high level defenders. They are also relying on a ton of midrange shooting to propel their offense.
I find it hard to believe this team can win the title. They don’t look like other title winners on either side of the court. I don’t want a piece of them at short odds, and think there will be value betting against them.

Miami: I think Miami has a better chance to win the title than many teams ahead of them in terms of odds. We know good Butler can be in the playoffs, Bam is an elite playoff defender, and they have the best coach in the NBA. I never want to count Miami out, but this is a much better team to bet to cover playoff series spreads then it is to bet to win the title.

Finally, we get to the 5 teams with in-their-prime MVPs on them. There have been 6 seasons over the last 40 teams where there were at least 5 teams with prime MVPs (2023, 2020, 2009–2011, 2006), and in each one of those seasons, one of them won the title. Over that same time frame, in the 8 seasons where an in-prime MVP did not win, their have been an average of 2.25 teams with an in-prime MVP on them, and only once were their even 4 teams (2019). I think it’s very likely to be one of these teams.
You could bet all five of these teams, and get composite odds of about -109, or about 52%. I think there is well over a 52% chance one of these 5 teams wins the title, and there is a measure of value in all of these numbers. When deciding whether to bet, I’m mostly evaluating two criteria. First, is there enough value? Second, can I get better odds later, either during the season or by betting series-by-series in the playoffs?
If you are only making bets now, I would load up on all five of these, and then just sit and leave it until the end of the season, and you are very likely to finish up. I’m not going to do that, may add on to other teams later, and am therefore only betting on the teams I have faith in.
One more final note. None of the odds below are out of step with the market, so be sure and check other books you have access to first and see if you have better odds there.

Philadelphia: Embiid has been incredible in the regular season the last three years. But the last two, when he gets to the playoffs, his usage drops, his efficiency drops, his assist percentage drops: he just becomes a worse player overall. I think Nurse is a tremendous playoff upgrade as a coach. He could get more out of Embiid and figure out imaginative ways to maximize his talent.
Philly is currently +2700 on Fanduel to win the title. From my records, this is the worst odds for a reigning MVPs team in the last 27 seasons. 7 of those reigning MVPs won the title the following season, with the longest odds being Denver last season (as high as 2100 preseason).
I don’t have faith in Embiid or Harden, but historical trends would say their title odds are higher than 3.5%. It would seem to me they are closer to 5%. But I can’t recommend betting it.

LA Lakers: I think the Lakers path this season is similar to the 1999 Spurs, the 2005 Heat, or the 1987 Lakers. Those teams all had a player who was considered an “in their prime MVP” (Robinson, Shaq, and Kareem), but during the playoffs, their best player was the ascendant superstar (Duncan, Wade, and Magic). LeBron has had his two lowest PER in the playoffs the last two seasons, his 3 point attempt rate in the playoffs is the highest it’s ever been, his usage was an all time playoff low, and his assist % plummeted to the lowest of his career in the playoffs since 2014 with Miami. He just isn’t the same on ball dominant superstar he always was — and to win a title, they are going to need AD to be the best player on the floor in the playoffs.
The problem is that AD isn’t a dominant on-ball superstar either. During last year’s playoffs, they won games where Rui, Lonnie Walker, or Russell had to go off to carry the scoring burden on a nightly basis.
Similar to the above, +1400 feels higher than their actual odds to win the title. But I am too concerned about how they will perform without that same on ball juice, which I think they need to win it all. Even more so, the chances of both players being healthy just isn’t high enough. I’m willing to wait to see how they look come playoff time.

Golden State Warriors: The Warriors are similar to the Lakers in a lot of ways. Curry was also not quite as good in the playoffs last year as the year prior, and is 35 this year (the same age LeBron was when he won his last finals MVP). The difference is that Curry was still the dominant offensive force last year in the playoffs and the regular season.
More importantly, I think the Warriors offseason moves are really impactful. The Warriors team was a chemistry nightmare last year, as Draymond puched Jordan Poole, and Wiggins was barely with the team. The Poole trade highlighted how much they didn’t want him around, and Poole also was awful for the Warriors offense last year. His individual numbers were fine, but he turned it over a lot, and the Warriors offense was abysmal whenever he was on the floor. Swapping him for an established player like Chris Paul, who has shown to be somewhat adaptable, will be huge on offense, and also on defense where Chris Paul is better at executing a scheme. They also get a full year of Gary Payton II, and add Dario Saric, who is a perfect fit for what they are trying to do (Saric also was very good in OKC last year).
Last year, they lost to the Lakers, as they were unable to get anything going when they went to the basket against AD. I think they would play the Nuggets better, and have a good chance to get out of the West, and if they look good enough to do that, I like their chances in the finals. Even with the upgrades in the East, I have the Warriors winning the title about 10% of the time this year. At +1400, we are getting surefire value, and I think this may be the best odds we see all season.
Bet: .5u on Warriors at +1400 on FD/BR/MGM/BS

I want a little more on the Warriors, so also betting these team specials on DK, all for .1u. If you don’t have them, I’d just add another .25u on the title odds. But with NBA scoring generally up, and Chris Paul aiding both of their offenses, I like them both to hit these numbers.

Milwaukee Bucks: In 2021, when the Bucks won the title, Giannis was incredible, especially defensively in the finals. His usage that season was 31.7%, which was the lowest of any regular season or postseason during the Bud era. Since then, his usage has kept going up, during both the regular season and playoffs, but the overall quality of the Bucks offense hasn’t improved. This was apparent in the end of the Bucks final playoff game last year: with Giannis not being as assertive offensively, the Bucks offense just puttered out.
I wrote most of the above paragraph before the Dame trade, and punctuated it with the following: “The difficulty for Milwaukee is that this problem is tough to solve, because they can’t really add a really great primary creator.”
Of course, this all changed when they traded for Dame. Others have covered it, but I’ll repeat what others have said: this offense could be the best in the NBA. Giannis and Dame are a great fit on offense, and really put teams into impossible situations defensively. As covered above, giving Giannis less of a burden on offense could unlock more effort on defense, and make him into the force that was dominant defensively in prior seasons.
For the past 5 seasons, the Bucks defense has had 3 pillars that it rested upon:
1. Great rim protection, highlighted by Giannis and Brook.
2. Great coaching philosophy, especially during the regular season, on the defensive end.
3. An amazing point of attack defender, led by a guard who has made all NBA defense (Bledsoe in 19 and 20, Jrue in 21, 22, and 23).
The Bucks defense only has 1 of these pillars to fall back on now. It’ll be the great question this season: how well can they defend without a top tier perimeter defender (and really just two gerat rim protectors), and what’s the impact of Bud’s departure.
The Bucks are now the favorite everywhere, and they should be co-favorites at worse.
+400 implies a 20% chance at a title. The 19–20 Lakers entered the season with similar odds (+450), and then never really approached odds that long over the course of the rest of the season. It’s possible this happens with the Bucks as well, with a dominant regular season and a 1 seed. But, I don’t think an incredibly dominant regular season is particularly likely, because of the new coach, roster changes, and defensive adjustments, not to mention lower game totals for some of their stars.
I’d estimate at this exact moment, their chance to win is 25%. But I’m willing to wait until I have more clarity on the health front, age related regression, and overall fit. If the playoff odds come around and odds are worse, then we will lose value, but at least have clearer answers and options to bet them then.

Denver Nuggets: We already bet the Nuggets at +475, before the offseason started. But their offseason so far has been a disaster. They have no bench and no depth, aside from mostly unproven young players. It’ll be tough to survive any injury, especially in the playoffs. At the moment, I’d put them as the second best chance (at worst) to win it all, and you can currently bet them at +550.
I am also sure that at some point this season, with the weak bench, they will in a slump, they will have odds at +500 or better. There is still a desire to dismiss Jokic and their success, and people will always be willing to do that. At the point where odds dip, we will have more information on whether they improved their bench, and if any of those pieces have emerged as a hugely positive defender.
But the +550 price is really, really nice. You could potentially bet them come the playoffs and make more, or bet them series by series — but I’m far from sure that’s the case. I’m adding .75u, on the Nuggets at +550 on FD/BR/MGM/DK/BS.
Last Nuggets point: people were shocked by the Reggie Jackson contract, but he has already waived his implicit no trade clause. I think this gives them a little more wiggle room to make a low level deal this season, to bring in someone who makes above the minimum, to fill out their rotation, by moving him.