Turning the Tide
How Argentina Can Transform Short-Term Survival into a Future-Ready Strategy
I first introduced this concept in a dossier paper for CESBA (Consejo Económico y Social de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires), titled “A Shift Towards Strategic Foresight: How to Prepare for and Anticipate Contingencies by Proposing Narratives and Artifacts through Futures Design.” In that piece, I presented strategic foresight as a proactive way of envisioning and preparing for potential challenges — using narratives and speculative artifacts to explore contingencies before they become critical issues.
This text aims to build on and expand that initial vision for Argentina, illustrating how we can transition from perpetual crisis mode to a truly future-ready state. Indeed, Argentina is a nation of brilliant improvisers: we have mastered the art of creatively responding to economic crises and political upheavals. Like Maradona dribbling past defenders, we find last-minute solutions to escape tight spots. But to what end? We are always reacting, rarely anticipating. We run but never arrive.
Our governance mirrors that of an emergency doctor: exceptional at handling crises but lacking a preventive care system that could make many emergencies unnecessary. We patch wounds, but the patient keeps bleeding.
In contrast, other nations have invested in forward-thinking institutions. Finland deliberately established its parliamentary Committee for the Future, while Singapore created its Centre for Strategic Futures. These were intentional institutional choices aimed at cultivating what we might describe, borrowing from Borges, as “A Garden of Forking Paths” — systematically exploring various possible futures to guide better decisions today.
Yet, Argentina’s position at the periphery — what Francisco acknowledged when he referred to himself as “the Pope from the end of the world” — provides us with a unique perspective. As philosopher, Amelia Podetti pointed out, Magellan’s expedition viewed the world differently upon reaching the strait that now bears his name. This peripheral vision enabled us to see what was hidden from Europe’s centers of power.
But without structured foresight, Argentina remains trapped in cycles of instability. Economic crises erode savings, infrastructure crumbles during predictable summer storms, and social tensions escalate into conflicts that could have been prevented.
As Eduardo Galeano might ask: Will we continue as passive subjects of history or finally become its authors?
Beyond Ministry Silos: The Tango of Interconnected Challenges
Our governance structure resembles Buenos Aires’s “101 barrios porteños” — each distinct but disconnected. Economic policies emerge from one ministry, environmental regulations from another, and infrastructure planning from a third. Like musicians playing different pieces simultaneously, they create noise instead of harmony.
Yet, national challenges do not respect these artificial boundaries. Economic struggles in Santiago del Estero drive migration to Buenos Aires, affecting housing needs in La Matanza. Environmental policies in the Riachuelo Basin impact public health across the metropolitan region. Everything is interconnected — like the intricate steps of a tango, where each movement influences the next.
The COVID-19 pandemic made this clear. It wasn’t just a health issue; it disrupted our economy, education, and social fabric. Nations with integrated foresight capabilities responded more effectively because they had rehearsed the dance of interconnected disruptions.
For a country that prides itself on intellectual prowess, developing foresight is an administrative necessity and an opportunity to align our analytical talent with governance structures capable of tackling complexity. Rather than the fragmented approach that has defined our governance since San Martín crossed the Andes, we may finally cultivate the unified vision that our intricate reality necessitates.
Practical Tools for an Argentine Foresight Framework
Design Fiction: Making Policy Tangible in the Realm of Magical Realism
As Argentines, we know the power of fiction — from Borges to Cortázar, we know how imagined realities can shed light on truths about our present. Design fiction leverages this literary heritage to address governance challenges by creating concrete representations of how policies could impact daily life in potential futures.
Consider the work of Girardin & Nova, who created a future map of Geneva that illustrates transportation systems adapted for autonomous vehicles. This effort was not merely technical planning but something akin to what Cortázar might recognize — a portal into another possible reality that citizens could explore and evaluate based on their experiences.
Given our literary traditions and visual culture, this approach holds particular promise for Argentine governance. Imagine creating representations that illustrate how different economic development strategies could transform specific regions, from the wine country of Mendoza to the industrial corridors of Córdoba. Alternatively, visualize how various housing policies might reshape the relationships between the capital and provinces. These tangible artifacts would encourage more meaningful discussions about our national development path.
In a country where abstract economic discussions often seem disconnected from the lived realities of kiosqueros in Palermo or agricultural workers in Chaco, design fiction connects policy abstractions with tangible experiences. It offers a way to make governance more transparent and understandable for all Argentines, not just those with advanced degrees in economics or public administration.
Climate-Focused Scenario Development: From Patagonia to La Quiaca
Argentina boasts remarkable geographic diversity, ranging from the subtropical forests of Misiones to the arid expanses of Patagonia and from the Andean highlands to the Pampas lowlands. This diversity creates distinct climate vulnerabilities that cannot be addressed with one-size-fits-all national policies.
Look at the work of Heated Studio, which envisioned a future for Madrid adapted to extreme heat. Through the narrative voice of Isabél Sánchez, Secretary of Deep Climate Action (SDCA), they didn’t simply present technical adaptations. Still, they created what Borges might appreciate — a rich alternative reality where Madrid maintained its essence while becoming resilient to climate challenges. Their visualizations showcased bioclimatic architecture integrated with historic buildings, cooling systems in traditional plazas, and community gardens that strengthen neighborhood ties.
Considering our environmental diversity and regional identities, this approach provides unique value for governance in Argentina. Imagine crafting scenario narratives illustrating how various climate adaptation strategies could transform specific regions, from the northern subtropical provinces to the southern Patagonian landscapes. Or imagine how differing water management strategies might alter the relationships between arid western regions and the more temperate eastern provinces. These immersive scenarios would encourage more meaningful discussions about our environmental resilience.
In a country where abstract climate discussions often feel disconnected from the lived realities of the viñatero in Mendoza or the fisherman in Mar del Plata, climate-focused design fiction connects scientific projections with concrete experiences. It provides a means to make environmental governance more tangible and meaningful to all Argentines, not just those with specialized knowledge in climate science or environmental policy.
Practical Advantage Assessment: The Argentine Approach
Despite our reputation for philosophical debates and theoretical sophistication, Argentines are, at heart, pragmatic. We have endured repeated crises not through abstract theorizing but through practical adaptations to shifting circumstances.
Consider the work of deftech’s Blue Corps initiative, a collaboration among the Swiss Army’s natural resource soldiers, Swisstopo, armasuisse, and Support International for Swiss Resilience (RESINT). They didn’t merely produce abstract reports about water scarcity; instead, they developed what Sarmiento might recognize as a blueprint for practical action — a detailed organizational model that treats water as a strategic asset for national stability. Their approach involves securing essential water needs, ensuring peaceful resource management, promoting efficient water usage through new technologies, and experimenting with dual-use capabilities.
For Argentine governance, this pragmatic focus provides a pathway beyond our tendency to fluctuate between technological utopianism and defensive skepticism. Imagine creating similar mission-oriented organizations centered on our critical resources, from the northwest’s lithium reserves to the Pampas’ agricultural productivity. Alternatively, consider developing practical implementation models for managing the shared water resources of the Cuenca del Plata, which spans five countries. These concrete organizational frameworks would turn abstract resource discussions into actionable institutional designs.
In a country where discussions about strategic resources often stay caught between academic theorizing and immediate political expediency, deftech’s practical approach connects long-term strategic thinking with immediate institutional needs. It provides a method to enhance resource governance, making it more resilient and effective for all Argentines by linking our considerable intellectual capabilities with the practical institutional demands of anticipatory governance.
Cultivating Anticipatory Capability: A Path Forward for Argentina
1. Build on Our Intellectual Heritage
Argentina boasts a rich tradition of future-oriented thinking, from the pioneering efforts of the Bariloche Foundation’s “Modelo Mundial Latinoamericano” in the 1970s to the valuable contributions of our universities and research centers today. Instead of importing foreign models wholesale, we should reconnect with and build upon this intellectual heritage.
This involves engaging our academic institutions, think tanks, and civil society organizations in a national dialogue about anticipatory governance that suits our context. We don’t need to copy Finland or Singapore; we can create an Argentine approach to foresight that builds on our unique intellectual traditions.
2. Start Within Existing Institutions
Instead of establishing entirely new bureaucratic structures, we can start by pinpointing where foresight capabilities may be developed within our current governance framework. The planning units in key ministries, policy analysis teams in legislative bodies, and research departments in public agencies all serve as potential starting points.
By identifying existing capacities and linking them through cross-institutional networks, we can develop foresight capabilities that utilize established expertise while creating new methodological approaches. This approach acknowledges both budgetary constraints and the importance of institutional experience.
3. Focus on National Priorities
Initial foresight efforts should concentrate on challenges that are uniquely Argentine in nature:
- The sustainable development of our natural resources, ranging from the lithium reserves in the north to the agricultural wealth of the Pampas
- The rebalancing of our geographic development aims to address the historical concentration in Buenos Aires
- Navigating technological changes that respect our social fabric while enhancing productivity
- The cultivation of resilience to international economic volatility that has historically interrupted our progress
By concentrating on these uniquely national challenges, foresight initiatives can showcase tangible value while cultivating methodological expertise and institutional relationships that align with Argentine priorities.
4. Foster Federal Participation
True anticipatory governance in Argentina must embody our federal character, engaging provinces and municipalities as equal partners rather than subordinate entities. Regional foresight capabilities should evolve alongside national ones, fostering a networked approach that honors our constitutional structure and diverse regional realities.
This federal approach would honor our political traditions and improve the quality of foresight by incorporating diverse perspectives and knowledge from across our nation — from the technical expertise of our urban centers to the practical wisdom of our rural communities.
From Reactive to Anticipatory: An Alternative Chapter in Our National Narrative
The development of anticipatory governance capabilities marks a potential turning point in our national development narrative. It presents an opportunity to transcend the cycles of crisis and response that have defined much of our history and move toward a more intentional and strategic approach to our collective future.
This shift would not necessitate abandoning our distinctive national strengths. We Argentines will always uphold our remarkable ability for adaptation and improvisation, which have enabled us to survive repeated crises. However, these strengths could be enriched by more systematic approaches to anticipating and preparing for potential futures.
The methodological approaches outlined here — design fiction to make policy implications tangible, climate-focused scenario development to address regional variations, and practical advantage assessment to identify strategic opportunities — provide starting points for this evolution that honor our national character and institutional realities.
By developing these capabilities, Argentina can enhance governance effectiveness and democratic legitimacy. Policies that arise from systematic exploration of various futures, rather than reactive responses to immediate pressures, are generally more robust, sustainable, and aligned with long-term development priorities.
Arturo Jauretche may remind us that a nation that cannot envision its future is fated to live someone else’s. The development of anticipatory governance capabilities enables Argentina to envision and create futures that reflect our unique national identity and aspirations — not futures imported from elsewhere or dictated by external constraints, but futures of our own making.
Will we remain like Maradona, skillfully dribbling through crises as they arise, or evolve like “Dibu” Martínez, anticipating and positioning ourselves before challenges present themselves?
The answer to this question will impact our governance effectiveness and national identity in the future.
Nicolás Bronzina is a strategic foresight and futures design specialist with a social sciences and user experience design background. His work intersects speculative research, strategic innovation, and climate resilience.
As co-founder of Heated Studio, he leads projects that transform climate resilience research into actionable frameworks and tangible prototypes. He helps organizations navigate uncertainty with evidence-based methodologies. He also collaborates with Girardin & Nova, exploring emerging trends and speculative scenarios that challenge established norms. He integrates generative intelligence and immersive narratives to visualize alternative futures.
His multidisciplinary approach combines qualitative analysis, speculative design, and participatory methodologies to turn weak signals into concrete strategies. From urban adaptation to technological foresight, his work transforms uncertainty into opportunity.
His work offers an alternative to Argentina’s culture of improvisation. It advocates for developing concrete tools to anticipate and shape the country’s future.
For more information about his work and publications, visit nicolasbronzina.com.
