Gavin Newsom Could Very Likely Be the 2024 Democratic Nominee

I’m not stupid — I know the idea that anyone other than Joe Biden could be the Democrats’ 2024 presidential nominee seems extremely unlikely based on all past political precedent.

But I would submit that in the post-Trump era of American politics, ANYTHING GOES. The past two presidential election cycles have been absolute madness from a historical perspective. Not just Trump’s improbable rise and victory — let’s not forget the series of previously-unimaginable events that transpired in 2020, resulting in a former VP who’d been considered too old to run when it was “his turn” four years earlier winning the presidency after running a campaign most in his own party regarded as an absolute disaster.

So forgive my hesitance to believe it when I’m told that Joe Biden is most definitely running and is all but assured to be the Dems’ candidate in 2024.

Obviously, tradition would indicate that a sitting president is his or her party’s presumptive nominee in the next election, especially when that party has already announced they won’t even entertain the notion of a challenger (no debates, etc.). But it’s clear to anyone paying attention that Biden has major weaknesses as a candidate — and if you don’t believe your own eyes, just check his approval ratings.

“But who would challenge him? And if there aren’t going to be debates, who even COULD challenge him?” Well, we’ve already seen Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s stunning rise in the polls — and while I think his chance of winning the nomination remains remote (although certainly not impossible!), this is yet another indication of Dem voters’ lack of enthusiastic for another Biden run.

In any case, I don’t think replacing Biden on the ticket (assuming that happens) will be the result of a direct challenge — the DNC are too powerful and sophisticated to allow that. Instead, it will be a behind the scenes decision made by party elites with the full cooperation of those involved (including the president). They’ll concoct a plausible story, roll it out methodically, and then VOILA! — we’ll suddenly have a new 2024 Dem nominee.

I’ll transition to pure speculation and opinion here. IMHO there’s NO WAY the Dems run Biden, and when whatever is gonna go down goes down, I have no doubt Joe and Jill will dutifully go along with whatever the DNC tells them to do and say. It will likely be some “undisclosed medical issue,” and everyone will “respect the family’s privacy” about the matter. Like Pope Benedict XVI before him, Uncle Joe will essentially be getting forced out, but he’ll be fine with it because he can see the writing on the wall. He’ll get a respectful send off and a happy ending to his political life.

As for his replacement… Kamala Harris, the obvious choice, is even less popular than the president.

I personally believe the DNC intends to run Gavin Newsom — and his recent charm offensive (which includes very publicly going toe-to-toe with the likes of Ron DeSantis and Sean Hannity) tells me he wants nothing more in this world than to be the guy they run.

But there’s still that little issue of Kamala Harris…

Now, I think Kamala (like the Bidens) will be willing to go along with whatever the DNC tells her to do — surely she’s enough of a political realist to realize how profoundly bad she is at actual politics. And she’ll know that in the process of acquiescing to what they ask of her, she’ll be able to demand a VERY substantial pound of flesh in the process.

I have no idea what Kamala Harris might request in exchange for her compliance (a Supreme Court appointment?), but I DO know they’ll give her whatever she wants. Heck, she MAY even stay on the ticket as VP — I just think that would be a bit weird. For one thing, how would the DNC explain to their base that a straight white guy is stepping in to lead the ticket while the black female VP remains stuck in the second banana role? Besides, if they’re gonna pay to make her go away, why keep her around at all? Replace her with someone else who checks the same boxes but actually has political talent and charisma.

Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe this whole idea is nuts. But, assuming the Democrats want to win again in 2024, I don’t think a scenario like this is nearly as implausible as it might have been in, say, 2012. Ask yourself: why else would the governor of California suddenly be wading so deeply into national politics? Whatever else you think of him, Gavin Newsom is handsome and good at talking. He LOOKS like a president. If the Dems managed to win in 2020 with 78-year-old Joe Biden, they wouldn’t be crazy to think this might work.