Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) Analyses and Reviews for April 2024
My analyses, trade setups, and reviews for US30
New to Trading and Journaling Trades
I’ve been into day trading for a little over a year now. I started learning on BabyPips in March 2023. Since, then I’ve struggled keeping a consistent journal in one place. I’ve tried YouTube private vlogs, Google Docs, Facebook stories, Twitter threads, TikTok private vlogs, a private Telegram channel, a private blog, Instagram stories, voice notes on my phone, and a written journal. None of them have been consistent. I have now come back to post on my Medium blog. I will aim to post daily analyses and reviews for the previous day’s trades. The entire month’s trades will be in one post, updated daily.
Trading US30
I’ve come to enjoy trading the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30). I found reading its charts easy and although not yet profitable, I’ve seen the gains I can make on this. I’ve seen my largest wins in trading on this and also my largest losses. A couple of accounts have been blown trading US30. The spread on this is also huge. Nevertheless, it is just a personal preference, I just had a good feel about this pair, so decided to stick with it for a while.
Begin US30 Analyses
US30 Monthly View
On the monthly perspective we can see that the US30 has been on a bullish rally for 5 months, which are the last 5 blue candles. This is since Nov 2023. April is into the 2nd week and we are already seen a bearish candle, white candle in my case.
It’s important to note that US30 reached an all time high this month. Trading platforms are giving different numbers, but my chart reads 39985.65 as the ATH.
On the monthly view, it is still bullish. But note that a bearish candle is forming and it is now about the same size as last month’s bullish candle. It could very likely be the start of a retracement.
If the retracement does happen, I expect price should drop down to at least the 50.0 fibonacci retracement level, to be in discount, before rising up again. This will be around 36135.23 as marked on the chart, or lower. But that is the minimum is should go.
If it does not retrace, we will see price form new all time highs, practically uncharted territory.
Let us look at the Weekly perspective.
US30 Weekly View
The weekly view is not as one-sided as monthly view. US30 is still bullish. There have been 5 bearish weekly candles in 2024, with this week starting bearish also. But last week saw the largest bearish run. However, it did not close below a recent low, so price is still bullish on the weekly timeframe.
Mon 8/4/24 9:40PM — US30 Day Analysis
The daily timeframe will be the most important timeframe for us. We will place trades based on the daily bias. The higher timeframes are just to give us a macro indication of where price may be heading. But our trade executions will be based on the daily perspective.
4 days have been bearish last week, with Friday being bullish.
There is a break of structure on the daily timeframe. Price closed below the most recent low of 39264.64 and closed below another low at 38614.43.
We have to be careful though, because this is a support area. And price may bounce upwards.
But for now, the bias on daily is bearish, unlike weekly and monthly views so we will look for SELL setups.
H4 View — Mon 8/4/24 10:25 PM
Looking at H4, here are some structures to note:
- 4 Apr price closed lower than lows formed in 14 Mar. We can say it has taken out liquidity below these lows.
- Engulfing buy breakout, which was broken later to the downside. This is at 39054–39129. When price retraced it did not break this zone. This appears to be a strong SELL zone. We will monitor this area.
- A large fair value gap was created, with the long bearish white candle. This area, marked with a yellow rectangle, will be filled to some measure before a downward move.
- On fibonacci levels, price already retraced to 50.0 fib level and went down. It appears to be going up again. Price is not in discount, it is less than 50 now, so I expect price to go up to around 61.8 fib level within our marked zone of 39054–39129 and then start to break out downwards. We might wait there for market structure break to downside then enter with a SELL.
- We want the setup to take place in the New York Session, for volume to be sufficient for a good move.
- There is no high impact news tonight on Forex Factory for USD so technicals should be okay.
I note also that market structure break is not consistent on our three key timeframes. Daily=Bearish, H4=Bullish, H1=Bullish. This will not be a high probability sell trade if we entered.
It will be best for us to wait until all three timeframes agree, in order for it to be a low risk, high probability trade.
High Risk Sell Option
For now, if we want to take a high risk sell, we can wait for M5 and M15 market structure break to the downside or engulfing setup in our zone and take a sell with a tight stop loss, since bullish momentum is still strong on H1 and H4.
Update: Review of Mon 8/4/24
US30 did not move much. Price didn’t arrive in our setup. It is still consolidating. Maybe in the New York Session tonight we will see some movement.
I did have some impatience and tried to enter on M5. I ended up getting stopped out. Price moved up against me.
Let us be patient next time, and wait for more confluence.
Tue 9/4/24 9:37PM — US30 Day Analysis
US30 hasn’t moved much since yesterday. Our setup from yesterday remains. We will wait for a SELL in the purple zone when an M5 and M15 Bearish break of structure takes place.
Day=Bearish, H4=Bullish, H1 = Now Bearish. H4 is still bullish.
Since H1 is bearish, if price starts moving down we can aim for the order block in brown and take out any liquidity in the way.
There is no red news tonight. So our technical setup still stands.
Update: Review of Tue 9/4/24
Last night, US30 did not rise to our sell zone. But it rose to an engulfing sell zone below it, which I missed in my analysis. Price went up to the 50.0 fib level then dropped. I took two entries, a buy when i thought price would rise to 39054. Closed early. Then I rose the SELL down, as expected. I stopped trading when price reached the brown order block, because I knew a retracement was possible. It did retrace that same night all the way up.
I will be taking a rest, and will not trade on Wed 10/4/24.
Thu 11/4/24 — Day’s Analysis
Yesterday’s red news created a huge FVG when price dropped. I am looking at this being filled tonight. So I will wait for a BoS to the upside and consider a BUY entry into the FVG. Price should move up to the 61.8 fib level at 38746 before going down. When a bearish BoS takes place I’ll take a SELL. Day=Bearish, H4=Bearish,H1=Bearish. There is red news tonight at 10:30PM so will be careful. I’m now waiting for a bullish BoS to take a buy until the 61.8 fib level then I’ll take a sell there.
Update: Thu 11/4/24 Review
Price failed to rise into the FVG yesterday. I took some entries and lost out, because it wasn’t high probability movement.
I am not going to trade US30 for the rest of the month. But I will just watch for setups and price movement.
