“If I’m going to make five or 10 mistakes then I’m going to try 11 times.” — Darwin Núñez
Maligned, mocked and memed, Liverpool’s number nine has endured great deals of criticism from pundits and fans. It would be dishonest to argue against some of this criticism, as while the Uruguayan has many admirable qualities, he has frustrated at times. Towards the end of the 2023–24 season, Núñez’s form dipped so alarmingly that he was dropped for the final games of the campaign for Dutchman Cody Gakpo. This led to hyperbolic, and at times toxic, discussions about his place at Liverpool under new manager Arne Slot, but despite the critics and despite the misses, the forward’s tantalising potential is still undeniable.
Not a Question of Ability
It is fair to label Núñez as an enigmatic figure, one capable of relentless and breathtaking displays while simultaneously baffling fans with almost comedic misses.
It is the latter which has amplified claims that the striker is unable to find consistency because he is somehow limited as a player. Perhaps following in the footsteps of Roberto Firmino, arguably the best non-Messi false nine of the 21st century, has skewed expectations of what fans should expect from a striker.
However, over the course of the season his performances have demonstrated he can be relied upon as a focal point, and as someone who can hold the ball up with his back to goal. In fact, not only did he accumulate the same number of assists (8) as the Premier League’s player of the season Phil Foden, Núñez’s performances against the likes of Wolves, Aston Villa and West Ham earlier in the season highlighted his good linkplay.
Having said that, criticism of his finishing has been a more prominent discussion point, and there have been arguments that Núñez lacks the technical ability necessary to become a prolific goalscorer. This assumption is based almost entirely on the volume of chances he misses, but by itself this volume means very little. Indeed, if missed chances were anything to go by Erling Haaland, who missed the most big chances (34) of any player in the Premier League, would surely have his place at Manchester City questioned?
“But Haaland scores more goals than Núñez” — yes, and he will likely continue to do so for the rest of his career, but this has nothing to do with either player’s ability. In reality, the Uruguayan often adds value to chances where others would not, and he manages to produce shots where others would be unable to.
The table below demonstrates that Núñez has both the ability and technical capacity to finish well. It is comprised of every player to have scored 11 or more non-penalty goals in the Premier League in the 2023–24 season, and it compares the average xG value of each goal against the average xGOT value of each (xG measures the quality of the chance, while xGOT also measures the quality of the shot itself).
Núñez’s xGOT of 0.6 is an increase of 100% on his xG, the seventh largest of any of the players listed, highlighting that although the Uruguayan received statistically more difficult chances than those Haaland, Son Heung-min and Ollie Watkins received, he was still able to add similar or more value to the efforts he actually scored.
The overaching point of the data is to help confirm that Núñez can in fact produce high quality shots even from difficult angles and zones, something that should be obvious from watching him in the first place.
However, it is fair to say that the data is flawed in isolation as it does not take into account several factors. For instance, judging a player’s finishing ability from only goals scored can be misleading, demonstrated by the fact that, on average, Núñez added more value (100%) to his goals than Son (86.2%). In reality, there is no conceivable way that Núñez can be considered a better finisher than Son, nor can Jarrod Bowen (140.74%) be considered a more dangerous player than Mohamed Salah (32.56%) simply because he added more value to his shots that produced goals.
It is therefore imperative to analyse the volume, and the types of shots that did not result in a goal, in order to understand whether a player is capable of becoming an elite goalscorer.
For example, though Nicolas Jackson scored 14 goals many of his efforts came during transition moments, and on top of that he ranked 45th in the division for shots per 90 (2.6). Additionally, would Bowen’s finishing ability at West Ham translate to Haaland’s level of goalscoring for Manchester City considering that he ranked 50th in the Premier League for shots per 90 (2.5), compared to Haaland who ranked third (4.3), and that West Ham primarily rely on transition attacks?
In regard to Núñez, while he only managed to score 11 goals in the Premier League he did accumulate the most shots per 90 (4.8) in the entire division, as well as the joint-second most shots on target alongside Salah (2). The forward is able to generate many of these shots because of his unique physical skillset, as well as his excellent movement in and around the box. Others might be better finishers than Núñez, but he will always produce more shots than them due to his own strengths and abilities.
In addition to this, while the Uruguayan has proven to be an incredible asset in transition attack, he has also demonstrated that can generate many high-value shots against settled defences, an important factor to consider when assessing a player’s potential value to an elite team who dominate possession.
When coupling these shooting statistics with the prior evidence that he has the ABILITY to finish well, one could easily see how his goalscoring numbers could significantly scale upwards.
You might then ask why Núñez has only accumulated 15.55 xGOT if he often adds value to his strikes (the 10th highest in the division — Haaland and Salah are 1st and 2nd with 27.1 and 23.2 xGOT respectively)? The answer has nothing to do with technical ability, but rather team style, and most importantly his temperament.
Although the data below has been collected from a different source, the shot map created by Pranav (@pranav_m28 — highly recommend following) still highlights how Núñez’s attempts have not always been from the most ideal positions, and have instead been more scattered around the penalty area and the edge of the box.
This is in part because under legendary manager Jürgen Klopp Liverpool relied on direct, more frantic attacks to unlock defences last season. While this can lead to exciting attacking moments, it has not necessarily allowed the Uruguayan to settle into games, and he is instead tasked with playing at a frenetic tempo for large periods. This resulted in Núñez being forced to take shots from less reliably productive positions, and this difference is made clear when looking at the location and volume of shots that Haaland took for Manchester City last term.
It is little surprise that someone of Haaland’s quality was able to generate an anomalous 1.04 xG per 90 considering most of his shots were confined to specific central areas within the box. However, the fact that Núñez was still able to generate 0.72 xG per 90, an exceptional figure itself, despite the team’s style not always putting him in optimum areas should be commended.
This is not to say that in order to improve Núñez should be restricted to just a penalty-box poacher, especially as Liverpool’s direct and frantic attacking style has been extremely beneficial at times (as has his own less-orthodox approach), but rather to suggest that more reliable patterns of play in the final third could lead to Núñez finding himself on the end of higher quality chances.
Having said that, team style and chance creation cannot excuse several of his misses.
Quite simply, if Núñez continues to miss easier opportunities at the rate he does then his place in the team must be questioned. Nonetheless, as this article has stressed, his missed chances have very little do with supposed technical deficiency; the forward’s ability to strike well has been greatly documented. On the contrary, the likes of Thierry Henry, Pep Lijnders and Núñez himself have noted that it is his temperament and confidence in front of goal which can significantly and negatively effect his finishing, not his actual ability.
“An intuition player like Darwin needs this kind of confidence” — Pep Lijnders
“[Klopp] wants me to take a second longer, because if I shoot with anger, or I rush it, it will always go badly.” — Darwin Núñez
These moments when Núñez does not settle in front of goal, the moments when he rushes to shoot and the moments when he does not strike confidently have not only skewed some of the available data but also wider perceptions of his overall quality.
His temperament often betrays his actual ability.
Darwin Núñez has never lacked the capacity to become a consistent goalscorer, and his technical level is far greater than many give him credit for. The Uruguayan’s mixed showings have almost entirely been a result of low confidence, team style and temperament issues.
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“He misses too many chances” — Well Yes. But No…
Many commentators and analysts have already noted that Núñez is a unique prospect, one that is able to generate chances (for himself or teammates) that others are simply unable to.
Jota, for instance, is an incredible finisher but would he be able to generate as many opportunities as Núñez? A rebuttal to this might be that Jota does not need as many chances to score just as many, if not more, goals. While this is true to an extent the ability to consistently produce good shots in different ways and in different circumstances is likely more valuable to a team in the long run.
Take the words of former Liverpool Director of Research, physicist and Cambridge PhD graduate Dr Ian Graham, who emphasised the importance of high volume, high quality shots:
A scout or a coach would say, “Why do we like this forward?” His team would respond, “He takes loads of really good shots.” The scout or coach would counter, “Yeah, but does he drive inside enough? Does he bring his teammates into play enough?”
“But we’re playing them up front,” Graham said. “He takes loads of good quality shots. There is literally nothing else to say. All other arguments, they’re second-order effects compared to this. But people love to mystify and bring more and more factors into play. A use of the data is just to say: This is the important thing and we might be wrong about it — we sometimes are wrong — but you have to come up with some really good arguments against this one really important thing.” — ESPN Article
Note in particular:
“He takes loads of good quality shots. There is literally nothing else to say.
Over the course of a season, someone who produces a higher volume of high quality shots (something that Núñez has proven he is more than capable of) will be more valuable than someone who can finish exceptionally well.
Indeed, someone such as Jota might be more clinical, but the fact he can only produce so many high quality shots in specific circumstances points towards a capped influence, as opposed to someone like Núñez, who despite his struggles in front of goal, will always have the opportunity to score more.
Essentially, when choosing between such players, managers must make the trade-off between volume and efficiency, and it is often volume that proves to be more valuable.
Núñez Must Improve, But It’s Easier Than You Think
The final question to ask in regard to Núñez is whether he can actually improve his temperament and become an elite goalscorer.
Given his inconsistent history at both Liverpool and at Benfica, an honest assessment probably comes to the conclusion that he will never reach the goalscoring heights of Haaland, but how many strikers in the Premier League will ever do so? How many will ever average 1.07 goals per 90? Again, this is not excusing Núñez’s misses, but rather highlighting where expectations should be set.
As someone who has proven he can generate a high volume of shots, as well as add value to many of his efforts, it is reasonable to expect an uptick in output should he manage to cool his temperament, and should new manager Arne Slot temper Liverpool’s frantic style (not necessarily by an extreme degree, though). Considering this, it is fair to say that Núñez could quite easily score (at minimum) 15–20 Premier League goals next season, and is 4–9 more goals beyond the realms of possibility, especially when considering the number of chances he had last season? Is it really a stretch to suggest that he could reach these figures if he had a similar number of shots given his ability to strike well?
Importantly, this would this be in line with other high-level forwards such as Watkins and Son, and while some might think that Núñez should still score more than this, he is not Liverpool’s primary goalscorer. As long as Salah remains at the club, he will almost certainly top the goalscoring charts, and if Núñez manages to put up good numbers while also facilitating the Egyptian through his good linkplay, then 15–20 goals a season would be more than sufficient.
The Uruguayan has all the ability and underlying metrics needed to become one of the league’s best forwards, and is not nearly as far away from achieving this status as some might believe.
