Speculative Future Lifestyles (Part 2) — Futures Wheel + Creating Provotype

NOK Speculative Four-Part Series

In this second instalment, we will be demonstrating how you can explore the consequences while envisioning the possibilities that lie ahead of the four hypotheses from our previous article. This is accomplished through Futures Wheel, exploring the stereotypes of Futures Personas, and Futures Persona Creation.

Futures Wheel

What

The Futures Wheel is a visual tool used in Futures Thinking to explore the consequences and impacts of an event or scenario. It uses a systematic exploration of first-order impact, second-order, and deeper levels of impacts to gain a comprehensive understanding of the potential outcomes. It helps individuals and teams anticipate and analyse the ripple effects that arise from a particular situation, decision, or trend.

Why

When faced with a problem, our reliance on past experiences can limit our perspective for anticipating future issues. That’s where the futures wheel exercise comes in. Supported by historical facts, drivers, and signals, the futures wheel allows participants to visually discuss cause-and-effect relationships from a central idea, unveiling hidden risks and opportunities.

The Benefits of Futures Wheel

1. Encouraging creativity and thinking outside the box
2. Collaborating with others to gain diverse perspectives
3. Using visual aids and diagrams to enhance understanding
4. A flexible tool that can be used in various ways to explore limitless possibilities, tailored to different intentions or goals.

How

Step 01: What do you want to explore?
Place the speculation you want to explore in the central circle of the Futures Wheel.

Step 02: Direct, First-Order Impact
Write the direct impact from the central speculation and draw a connecting line between them. These are the first-order impact. Impacts can be both positive and negative.

Helpful tip: Keep the impact straightforward at this stage to encourage participation.

Step 03: Indirect, Second-Order Impact
Look at the direct impacts and brainstorm all the possible impacts from there. Write them down with a connecting line to the previous impact. This is the second-order impact.

Repeat this step to identify the third-order, fourth-order impact.

Helpful tip: For this article, our team explored up to the third-order consequence. However, we highly recommend going up to fifth-order impact to identify valuable opportunities.

Step 04: A Macro View

Oftentimes, participants lean towards populating on social impacts as it is the most universal aspect that everyone can easily relate to. To push participants to explore deeper levels of impact, you should weave PESTLE into your Future Wheel.

Segment the Futures Wheel into six sections and assign each letter of PESTLE to a corresponding part. Fill in the impacts for each segment. This exercise will provide a macro perspective of the speculative future.

Step 05: Collaborative Analysis of the Futures Wheel
Once the Futures Wheel is adequately populated, designate a team member to thoroughly review the board. This enables everyone to grasp each idea and contribute fresh perspectives. Encourage the team to articulate one thing that worries them the most and one thing that they are most excited about regarding the speculations.

Helpful tip: Ensure that participants feel confident and comfortable with one another to spur collaboration. Encourage discussions by assigning loose roles such as a speaker, a note-taker, and a cheerleader. Do not be afraid of getting the board “dirty” by drawing and writing directly on it.

Applying the Futures Wheel to Speculative Lifestyle Trends

In the last article, we mentioned 4 speculative future lifestyles —

We ran them through the Futures Wheel exercise and explored up to the third-order impact, which led us to near-term future speculation.

This section delves into the various implications of each speculative lifestyle. It is an extensive section that provides comprehensive insights. However, If you prefer, you can proceed to the next segment to discover more about Future Personas.

Speculative Lifestyle Trend 01: No-Tech-Zones

• Political: Exploring New Governance Models and Balancing Technology
  A no-tech zone explores new ways of governing, including allowing everyone to participate in decision-making. By disconnecting from constant technology, residents develop a stronger sense of community and seek a fair and equal society. It challenges traditional power structures and serves as an experimental space for alternative decision-making models.
• Economic: Disparities and Fragmentation
  The no-tech zone could attract affluent residents, potentially creating economic disparities. However, it can also stimulate tourism, cultural appeal, and innovation as entrepreneurs seek alternative solutions to modern challenges.
• Social: The Birth of New Religions
  The absence of constant technological distractions may create an environment conducive to reflection, prompting individuals to seek deeper meaning in their lives. This could result in more people exploring various spiritual practises, mindfulness, or even the birth of new religions that centre around a connection with nature and inner exploration. This catalyses the development of unique spiritual and philosophical perspectives.
• Technology: No-tech-zones Using Advanced Technology
  Contrary to its name, a no-tech zone can be a highly advanced area where advanced technology is concealed to enrich the natural environment. For instance, innovative waste management systems leveraging bioengineering or nanotechnology might be employed to ensure efficient recycling and minimise environmental impact. These zones become a model to showcase how cutting-edge innovations can be used inconspicuously to support sustainable practises and preserve the beauty and balance of the environment.
• Legal: What Is Technology?
  Access to technology is a basic human right. With the establishment of a no-tech zone, some might see it as infringing on these rights. This could lead to legal debates about whether denying technology access is a form of discrimination or denying essential services. To address this, lawmakers may need to clearly define what they mean by “technology” and establish guidelines for what is not allowed and why. These legal changes could set a precedent for how we understand and protect the right to access technology in an increasingly digital future.
• Environment: Transparency and Accountability
  The concealment of advanced technologies in these zones may limit public awareness and engagement. Without visibility into these technologies, the public may have limited knowledge of their benefits and environmental impacts. The lack of transparency raises concerns about accountability, as it becomes challenging to hold stakeholders responsible for their environmental responsibilities.

Most Exciting: Living, Not Surviving
One of the most exhilarating aspects is the freedom to rewrite the rules and redefine what it means to thrive in a technologically saturated world. It offers an opportunity to challenge the status quo and pioneer new ways of living that prioritise human connection, self-discovery, and a harmonious relationship with nature.

With technology taking a backseat, people can explore unconventional career paths, delve into artistic pursuits, and forge deeper bonds within a tightly-knit community. This presents a chance to break free from the confines of societal expectations, paving the way for a truly authentic and fulfilling existence.

Most Worrying: Living In A Bubble
The most worrying aspect would be the widening of societal divide. The emergence of alternative governance models and conflicting values between the no-tech zone and the rest of the city could lead to societal fragmentation and a lack of cohesive progress on pressing global challenges.

Speculative Lifestyle Trend 02: Borderless Citizens

• Political: The Rise of Propaganda
  What happens when people put their personal needs above the greater good of their country? Nations are at risk of losing citizen loyalty which results in issues like the breakdown of military, intense talent poaching and even a rise in tax evasion. We will see a rise in state propaganda to manipulate citizens. This will come in direct influence such as a change in school curriculums, to indirect ones such as controlled news outputs.
• Economic: Tiered Membership Over Citizenship
  To retain their people while respecting their need for freedom, countries might turn towards offering tiered membership rather than citizenship. A higher tier will promise extra perks. However, this will result in unfair treatment of full-time residents in the country with increased cost of living — from rental booms to increased tax.
• Social: Death Of Culture
  Similar to the effects of globalisation, where we get to shop the world within our own countries, now we get to meet people from all over the world within our vicinity. Common communication takes place where we will all speak the same language. This contributes to the death of cultures and the lack of national identity. On the flip side, new cultures will be born and race will become a thing of the past.
• Technology: The Other Me
  As teleportation is being worked on, people will want a technology that allows them to be in multiple places at once. With travel becoming mundane, space exploration will become a popular form of adventure. If that is still too inconvenient, we could purchase our own humanoid clones to be stationed and remotely controlled from everywhere.
• Legal: Struggling Interpol
  As borders between countries diminish, so does the effectiveness of Interpol. As borders become more permeable and less restrictive, criminals are also taking advantage of this new landscape. They can easily exploit legal loopholes, seek refuge in countries with weak law enforcement systems, or swiftly move across borders to evade capture. As a result, the effectiveness of Interpol in dealing with these criminals is diminishing, and its traditional methods of operation need to adapt to this changing reality.
• Environment: Responsible Tourism
  The global competition to attract tourists to evolving urban landscapes exacts a heavy toll on the environment, and even ambitious renewable energy projects may fall short in mitigating the damage. The relentless construction, energy-intensive structures, and transportation demands continue to contribute to carbon emissions and ecological devastation. Fragile ecosystems are destroyed, indigenous communities are marginalised, and the urgent need for sustainability becomes more evident.

Most exciting: Dream Jobs
The most exciting aspect is that people have endless opportunities to make the most out of their lives. They can connect with people from all over the world and find work that they love. With new jobs and automation helping with boring tasks, people can focus on doing meaningful and fulfilling work. It’s a time where everyone can follow their passions, contribute to society, and live a life they truly enjoy.

Most Worrying: Greed
One of the most worrying things about the diminished borders of countries is that people’s raised expectations and increased greed for personal gain may overshadow environmental concerns. As individuals become greedier and prioritise their own desires, there is a risk of neglecting sustainable practises and damaging the environment. It is important for us to find a balance between personal aspirations and environmental stewardship to ensure a sustainable future for generations to come.

Speculative Lifestyle Trend 03: Priority on Fun and Stimulation

• Political: Jester for President
  With technology to meet people’s basic needs, the focus shifts heavily towards seeking fun and entertainment. This desire for constant excitement extends even to politics, where politicians with captivating and unconventional personas gain attention. The substance of political discourse can be overshadowed by sensationalism. Balancing entertainment with informed decision-making is crucial for maintaining effective governance in this entertainment-driven era.
• Economic: Moonlighting
  This shift opens up opportunities for more individuals to engage in moonlighting — doing multiple jobs or turning their hobbies into paid work. This trend has a positive impact on the city’s economy in several ways. It brings flexibility to the job market, encourages entrepreneurship, boosts innovation, expands market access, and stimulates overall economic growth. However, it is important to address challenges like job stability and fair treatment to ensure a balanced and thriving economy for everyone.
• Social: Diverse Family Structure
  Relationships and family structures become more diverse, with people connecting in unconventional ways and forming chosen families. The ‘families of choice’, co-parent based on shared values and mutual respect. Some may opt for fluid families, which change and evolve over time. Others might form communal families, living together in shared homes or compounds, pooling resources, sharing childcare, and collectively making decisions. While these changes bring exciting possibilities, it is important to balance technology with genuine human connection to ensure social well-being.
• Technology: Dehumanising
  Other than heaven and earth, we now have the fourth realm — the hybrid-verse. It offers the potential for eternal existence and personal growth, revolutionising concepts of mortality and human connection. However, there are concerns about the superficiality and fragmentation of existence, and the blurring of identity and social dynamics. Balancing the allure of the hybrid-verse with the preservation of our humanity and addressing these challenges will be crucial for navigating this evolving social landscape.
• Legal: Adaptable Legal Framework
  Laws need to adapt to regulate emerging industries, such as virtual experiences and immersive technologies, ensuring fair ownership and protection of digital creations. Family and relationship laws must also evolve to accommodate non-traditional structures and provide legal recognition. Privacy and data protection laws become crucial as people engage in digital experiences, safeguarding personal information and online identities. By adapting legal frameworks, cities can ensure fairness, protect individuals, and foster innovation in this dynamic era.
• Environment: Eco-entertainment
  As the demand for better entertainment experiences grows, there arises a new wave of eco-entertainment. This innovative approach combines technology and sustainability, creating immersive experiences that not only entertain but also educate and inspire environmental consciousness. Eco-entertainment becomes a powerful tool for raising environmental awareness. These experiences encourage individuals to embrace sustainable lifestyles, promote conservation efforts, and actively participate in preserving the environment.

Most Exciting: Limitless Experiences
As individuals immerse themselves in the pursuit of fun and the next big thing, they tap into their innate creativity, leading to a renaissance of artistic, cultural, and technological advancements that inspire and uplift society. This creative reawakening becomes a catalyst for innovation, cultural richness, and a vibrant, dynamic world where imagination knows no bounds.

Most Worrying: Virtual Escapism
The constant pursuit of entertainment and the ability to escape into virtual realms may lead to a diminished sense of empathy towards real-world problems and the suffering of others. As people become desensitised to fear and hardship through their virtual experiences, it raises concerns about their ability to engage with and address pressing social, economic, and environmental issues. It becomes crucial to strike a balance between virtual escapism and active participation in the real world to maintain a compassionate society.

Speculative Lifestyle Trend 04: Mini North Korea

• Political: Power Struggle
  When leaders are driven by an elitist mindset, politics become a fascinating mix of efficiency and secrecy. The privileged few make decisions based on specialised knowledge, leading to effective governance but limited transparency. However, this exclusivity also gives rise to underground movements challenging the status quo, resulting in a dynamic power struggle that shapes the political landscape in unpredictable ways.
• Economic: Reliance on Imports
  The economy of the future may exhibit a dual nature, with concentrated wealth giving rise to niche luxury markets and specialised industries that appeal to affluent individuals seeking prestige. However, as globalisation progresses, the exclusivity of these markets may face challenges as the city becomes more interconnected with the global economy. Future behaviour may involve adapting to changing consumer preferences and competing with diverse global markets to ensure economic success. Failing to embrace globalisation and adaptability may hinder long-term economic viability and sustainable growth potential for the city.
• Social: Hush-hush
  Open dialogue and diverse perspectives may be stifled, leading to a conformity-driven atmosphere. This can trigger crackdowns, uprisings, and protests as the majority population seeks to challenge elitist establishments and demand greater rights and inclusion. Artists may struggle to find acceptance and support for their work, while individuals who deviate from elitist ideals may face marginalisation and suppression. These social dynamics can result in feelings of alienation, limited opportunities, and increased social unrest.
• Technology: Neo Cold War
  The limited interaction and collaboration between cities foster a climate of distrust, hindering technological progress and cooperation. This leads to barriers similar to a “technological iron curtain,” restricting access to advancements and information. As tensions escalate, rivalries intensify, resembling a “Neo Cold War” state, with competition and limited cooperation. An arms race may unfold as factions prioritise technological development, exacerbating divisions and straining relationships.
• Legal: Black Market
  Discrimination and inequality trigger legal battles against practises that deepen social divisions. Marginalised communities face limited access to justice, hindering their ability to obtain fair representation and equal protection. Consequently, individuals may resort to illegal activities as a means of navigating oppressive laws and finding alternative avenues. This can lead to the emergence of a black market, where illicit goods and services are exchanged outside of legal channels.
• Environment: Decreased Emphasis on Environment
  As communities isolate themselves and prioritise their own interests, cooperation and collaboration with external entities may diminish. This can lead to a decreased emphasis on global environmental goals and agreements, hindering collective efforts to address pressing issues such as climate change and resource conservation. Instead, the focus may shift towards local sustainability initiatives and self-reliance, potentially creating a fragmented approach to environmental stewardship and diminishing the broader global impact that collective action can achieve.

Most Exciting: Competition Accelerates Progression
If environments prioritise cutting-edge technologies, people’s lifestyle patterns could be profoundly influenced. They may engage in self-enhancement and biohacking, expect hyper-personalised experiences, and participate in the knowledge economy. Advanced technologies could lead to health and wellness breakthroughs and longevity, but privacy concerns and potential social disparities could be significant issues. Ultimately, lifestyle shifts would depend on the balance between the benefits of technological advancement and potential risks, as well as the individual’s ability to adapt and afford these changes.

Most Worrying: Modern-day Caste System
In a future society shaped by rigid social stratification and a surveillance culture, lifestyle patterns would likely reflect these structures. Those in the upper echelons could live in luxury and privilege, while marginalised individuals might struggle for basic necessities, leading to stark disparities in living conditions and opportunities. The pervasive surveillance, combined with a social credit system, could suppress individualism, resulting in a homogenised society characterised by conformity. Personal interactions may become cautious, fostering an environment of fear and distrust. However, these circumstances could also incite resilience and collective action, sparking social movements for equity and freedom, and fostering new forms of community-building among the oppressed.

Futures Persona

Persona vs Futures Persona, what’s the difference?

The key difference between a normal persona and a futures persona lies in their purpose and context.

• Normal Personas: based on existing data and insights to help understand current users’ needs, experiences, behaviours, and goals.
• Futures Personas: speculative and imaginative, aiming to explore possible future scenarios and their implications. Futures personas are used to stimulate thinking about potential futures, identify emerging opportunities, and inform long-term planning.

The Benefits Of Using Futures Wheel to Create Future Personas

The futures wheel can be a valuable tool in influencing future persona creation in several ways:

1. Realistic future vision: The futures wheel helps participants create personas grounded in a more realistic understanding of the future world, avoiding overly idealistic designs.
2. Humanise future trends: Futures personas provide a human-centered perspective on future trends or scenarios identified in the Futures Wheel. This helps organisations empathise with the different stakeholders involved and design strategies or solutions that cater to their specific requirements.
3. Uncover opportunities and challenges: By examining the consequences of trends or events through futures personas, organisations can identify untapped market opportunities that may arise in different future landscapes.
4. Thinking beyond conventional boundaries: Futures personas ignite imaginative thinking and encourage the generation of fresh ideas and approaches by enabling individuals to step outside their current context and empathise with the perspectives of personas in future environments.

Future Persona Stereotypes

Persona stereotypes are familiar and relatable to people.

Stereotypes are like quick mental shortcuts that help us understand the personas easily. They are influenced by our culture and society, so they feel familiar to us. Stereotypes have a track record of helping predict human behaviour, which can be helpful when making decisions.

There is no fixed number of stereotypes, as they can be tailored based on the specific needs and characteristics of the scenarios being explored. These are 12 common persona stereotypes.

• The Joker: challenge conventions and inject levity into serious situations.
• The Lover: driven by deep desires for love, intimacy, and meaningful connections with others.
• The Hero: display bravery, and a commitment to overcoming challenges for the greater good as an individual.
• The Nurturer: supportive and focused on the well-being of others.
• The Rebel: challenge the status quo, question authority, and seek to disrupt established norms
• The Explorer: adventurous, curious, and open to new experiences.
• The Visionary: possess a forward-thinking mindset, challenge the status quo, and inspire others with their innovative ideas and perspectives.
• The Innocent: pure, optimistic, and idealistic outlook on life.
• The Loyalist: They prioritise maintaining continuity and ensuring the preservation of core values and relationships in future scenarios.
• The Ruler: strong leadership qualities, focuses on governance, and the establishment of systems and structures to shape the future.
• The Sage: value introspection, serving as wise counsellors and mentors.
• The Everyman: They often embody common values, experiences, and aspirations, making them highly relatable to a wide audience.

Provotyping Future Personas

Provotype: Provocative prototype

The ultimate goal of a provotype is not to serve as a finished product, but rather to ignite forward-thinking dialogue and ideation about potential futures. While the journey to create provotypes can vary, we have developed a flexible framework to streamline the process.

NOK’s Provotyping Framework

Our approach merges the use of Persona Stereotypes and the Futures Wheel — two powerful tools in the arsenal of Futures Thinking. By grounding our personas in the realm of stereotypes, we ensure their relatability and immediate recognition for participants. To bring our persona to life and make it truly ‘future-focused’, we apply the futures wheel to examine and speculate on the possible implications of our persona’s actions and decisions.

With these tools in hand, the creation of a provotype becomes an engaging, thought-provoking exercise. It’s about projecting a persona forward, challenging our assumptions, and exploring the cascading implications of their life choices. We’ll introduce you to our future character in our next article, where we’ll explore their implications in detail.

Provotyping Personas Takeaway

This creative exercise pushes participants to think creatively, challenge preconceptions, and explore unconventional ideas. By breaking free from traditional assumptions and constraints, participants can envision and design experiences that reflect the possibilities of the future world.

Tip 1: Be bold, be inhibitive
Avoid being overly specific or restrictive. Like a design brief, this exercise should provide guidance without stifling exploration.

Tip 2: Crazy is good
In the realm of future thinking, ideas that initially sound ridiculous or far-fetched may actually hold the seeds of transformative concepts.

Conclusion

Now, you might be thinking, “That sounds really cool! But, I don’t know if I can do it.” Well, that’s where we come in. We’ve got the know-how, the experience, and the tools to guide you on this exciting journey into the future. If you’re curious to see what your business could look like in the future or how your customers might change, reach out to us. Let’s take a trip to the future together!

As always, insane today, obvious tomorrow!

Contributing Designers:
Rodney Loh, Design Director
Melvin Ong, Creative Director
Sim Hao Jie, Design Manager
Edmund Zhang, Senior UX Designer

Written by:
Lim Cai Jin
Alvin Ling
Rayson Tan

NextOfKin Creatives is a strategic design studio comprising a talented family of cross-disciplinary creative thinkers. Our passion lies in conceptualizing innovative designs and crafting unique narratives through our design research and strategy. We are driven to push boundaries and uncover fresh perspectives.

We’d love to partner with you on future casting and design research to reimagine how we can shape experiences together! Get in touch with us at studio@nok.design 👋 Thank you again for reading, and we hope to see you soon in our next article.

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