Some thoughts about Poker starting hands.
Technically there are 169 variations of starting cards in Poker. Lucky for you most of them are all terrible and not worth discussing. And the remaining cards can be grouped into 9 generic hand types.
The nine types of hands that we are going to review are:
- Pocket Aces
- Pocket Kings through Jacks
- Pocket Tens through Sevens
- Pocket Sixes through Twos
- AK and Broadway
- Ace Anything
- KQJ Anything
- Suited Connectors
- Everything else
Most pre-flop hand range analysis will group the hands into something along these lines. Some people put AK separate from other face cards. And in practice many gamblers play AK like they are Aces (they are not).
In a previous post I touched on these match-ups but today I want to get really specific with it and share my thoughts on playing these hands.
Pocket Aces
Pocket-rockets. Bullets. American Airlines…
This is the best starting hand in Poker and dominates every other hand by a lot. The pocket Aces are a good raise candidate almost every time. First and foremost to build up the pot. But also to clear out the riff-raff.
Your objective pre-flop is to get some if not all the money in. The textbook play from any position is to shove. And that is rarely completely wrong. However there are some circumstances where it is better than others.
Aces have about an 80/20 lead on every other two cards heads-up. If your opponent has an Ace it improves your lead to 90/10. However, the more players in the hand — the smaller your odds shrink. Those Aces against five player are down to only 50/50. Then again 5 players in equals 5 times the money. So like everything else in life it is a trade-off.
The best situation to shove is late-position against bets and limpers. The more the better. Hopefully the bettors call you down light and the limpers surrender their blinds. Another good option is making a “come out and play” sized raise. A bet sized big enough to polarize out the randoms but keep in the Ace rags and the lower pocket-pairs.
Consider yourself in late position again but this time against a line of folds. A shove there could miss some profit. We have to consider whether to shove, bet or check depending on the table, image and stack sizes.
It is tempting to deeply disguise your hand. To let a lot of people into the pot and take them all to the cleaners. Doing so is a major risk. Going that route with no intention of ever folding is delusional. You let these additional players in now you have to deal with the consequences.
Let’s consider what some bad flops for AA might be. A paired board statistically seems good for us since it is one less card for the villain to pair up with. On the other hand now there is a weapon loose that can beat our Aces.
If the flop comes with two same face cards this is particularly disappointing because face cards are obviously in a pre-flop caller’s range.
Another scary flop is two or three of the same suit. Again the odds are low that your opponent has the flush. But you have to be very aware of the possibility. And rely on your player read. Is this opponent capable of a big bluff?
So what is a good flop? Well a great flop would include an Ace or two. But we should also be fairly pleased with any dry board. Which means disconnected unsuited cards.
Your flop will probably fall somewhere in the middle of these two extremes. And the conventional approach is backwards. A wet board should be a wake-up call to stop goofing around and attempt to win the pot right then and there. If there is a draw on the board we absolutely want to price the villains out.
On the other hand dry boards or a board with an Ace doesn’t leave much meat on the bone for our opponent to catch second best with. So in that case we might check or call to extend some rope to the villain. If you have more than one opponent still standing though the pressure to raise is greater.
“I don’t want to go all-in if my opponent is going to fold unless I actually do want them to fold.”
Aces are great. But they are not an automatic win. If you have skimmed through everything else that’s fine but read this next line carefully.
Fold your hand when you think you are beat.
New players get really excited by a premium hand. Even regs will hold onto those Aces come hell or high-water. And I am here now to remind you that this is just a game. Aces are just another hand. Being able to fold a premium hand is a next-level skill. Players need to stay aware and recognize an adrenaline induced denial mind-set as tilt. Calm down and play right.
Pocket Kings, Queens and Jacks
Cowboys, Cowgirls and Fish-hooks.
Has anyone ever given you a nice Christmas gift but they drop the package right on your crotch? And you were sitting funny so it smashes your balls but you try to smile through the pain and open the gift anyway?
That is exactly what getting one of these pocket pairs is like. Don’t get me wrong, I am happy to see a couple Kings or Queens looking back when I check my hole cards. But it comes with a tinge of apprehension.
We want to play these like the Aces but with some key differences. Going against any lower pocket pair is still 80/20 advantage so we need to be prepared to shove. But with the caveat of lowered expectations. Going all in is a rational thing to do. Even calling multiple all-ins is frequently reasonable.
I don’t have the win/loss percents for going all in every time versus doing it only in select spots and waiting to see how the flop comes out others. I believe though that the profit is similar and just the speed is different. You will last longer by waiting and seeing. And in a tournament, time is the most real currency. Chips are just a game-piece we use to stay in the dang thing.
Picture yourself on the button holding KK, checks and folds to you and you raise 5x pre-flop. Two callers and the flop comes A 8 2. Position one bets the pot, second position calls and now you have honestly an easy decision. Painful but pretty obvious fold. Depending how big the pot to stack-sizes are. And if the pot is big enough to justify a call, now you are looking at two 20 to 1 shots in a row to catch trips.
Remember every pocket-pair comes up about every 220 times and we see about 35 hands per hour live and three times that online. It will come around again when the star are better aligned.
Let’s run some numbers real quick.
Jacks versus AK is 55/45
Jacks versus AQ is 57/43
Jacks versus AJ is 70/30
Jacks versus AT is 71/29
Jacks versus 56s is 80/20
Queens match-up about the same.
Queens versus AK is 56/44
Queens versus AQ is 70/30
Queens versus AJ is 71/29
Queens versus 56s is 80/20
Are you seeing the pattern?
Two overs versus any pair is always going to be 55/45. Regardless if it is pocket-queens or pocket-fours. That is the type of risk we want to minimize for longevity.
And finally of course, the fabulous pocket Kings. These two handsome gentlemen are special because they match-up so well against AK at 70/30. Getting your Kings through is usually just trying fade some Aces. Against AA you either have to pick up a King or a magical straight without another Ace coming out. And there is actually a 20% chance of that happening. Better than lottery odds but still not great.
A quality I love about Poker is how we need to maintain exactly opposite perspectives simultaneously. We need to be strong and soft at the same time the whole time. So that we have the flexibility to either push all of the money into a pot or throw away pocket aces and feel impartial either way.
Middle Pairs
Pocket Tens, Nines, Eights and Sevens.
Yes even pocket-tens! This situation resembles the previous except now we start thinking more seriously about set mining. Which mean blind-stealing, calling small or limping pre-flop. Then throwing it away if we miss the set. Unless of course you are short-stacked in which case shove.
Short-handed play (less than 6 players) any pocket-pair is extremely strong. However, not necessarily against an all-in caller. At best anyone calling an all-in pre-flop bet has two over-cards. As we discussed that puts your tournament life on a 55/45 bet.
If your stack demands it though you better start raising. On the other hand if you can afford to wait and see then sneaking your middle pair into the party puts you in line to hit that 1 in 7.5 chance. There are two cards still in the deck that will upgrade you to a set.
Low Pairs
Pocket Twos to Sixes.
These are fun hands to play and worth over-paying a little bit here and there to be in the hand for a possible set. I have seen too many players rock a pair of fives like they were Aces and get eaten alive by the table. The most likely reason to bet huge on a weak pocket-pair is impatience. After too many trash-hands in a row we are ready to win-lose or whatever to just get something going. A sentiment I totally understand. But honestly impatience is a Poker player’s worst enemy. Impatience is a sneaky form of tilt.
AK and Broadway
A to the K homeboy.
The odds of being dealt a pocket-pair, any pocket-pair is about 6%. Meaning there is about a 95% chance of being dealt two unpaired cards. And of all the possible unpaired hole cards AK is - well king.
Let’s consider some odds.
AK versus KQ is 74/26
AK versus A8 is 74/26
AK versus QJ is 64/36
AK versus T9 is 63/37
AK versus 56 is 62/38
Let’s imagine holding AK and the flop comes 7 9 3. And someone bets into you. What we have here is a two over-card situation. Even if the opponent currently has the lead, we still have about a 24% chance at improving. In that case we look at the pot, look at our stack and decide is a 1 in 4 bet profitable for us in that situation?
In truth, it usually is not. We will gladly hang around for free and try to hit that 12% on the turn and river. But you need to start thinking about plan B at this point. Which depending on the table is to semi-bluff or fold.
In low-stakes games you are probably against opponents who either fold too much or never fold. And it should be obvious what kind of table you are at. It is a waste of money to bet into a table that will never fold.
There is a psychological game afoot. Some players greatest fear is being bullied or bluffed. They will call with nothing rather than cow. The only reason to bet into a player like that is if you legitimately believe your hand is the best. At which point great we want to milk them for everything they got.
Another reason you might bet a never-folder is to mess with them. But probably go ahead and get a chip lead first. And then of course when you do have a chip lead is when you can afford to play the tightest and just step in for the big wins. So nevermind.
On the flip-side is the players who fold too much. At a certain point in the game it may start to feel difficult or even cruel to keep betting into such players. Forget that. Don’t get lulled into playing weak. If you can push a player out of the pot, do it! Make your game be the opposite of whatever they want you to do. And fill as much space with bets as the table will allow.
Ace Anything
Well it’s better than seven-deuce.
I have described 25 hands so far. And truthfully those 25 hands are what people consider “good”. Everything else falls into being either marginal or trash.
Playing marginal hands is like eating junk-food. It feels good. It is definitely convenient. But if you eat too much, your heart will implode. Same thing here. Away from the table is when you should decide what sort of marginal hands you plan to budget in.
Some people love mid-range suited connectors. Some people have some special hands they consider lucky. For me though, I would rather spend my junk-food allowance on Ace whatevers.
Even though, you can rarely win big with Ace rag. It’s a balancing act. Anyone playing back too strongly at you probably has an Ace of their own and probably has you out-kicked. What we really expect to win is folds or a modest pot at showdown.
A6 versus T9 is 51/49
Ace rag is great because once you hit it there are no more over-cards. That’s a huge relief. Even under the gun I play 25–50% of my Ace rags. And from the button or hijack it is probably more than 90%.
In exchange for playing almost every Ace, I let go of more suited connectors than some players do. At this range of marginal hands it doesn’t really matter what you play. What matters is how frequently you play, from what position, how your opponents play and how effectively you are playing post-flop. A lot of your cards are just platforms to run your game through.
KQJ Anything
“Fold and live to fold again.” — Stu Unger
Technically speaking K5o has a 2% edge over 87s. So if you played that exact match-up for even money enough times you will get a thin profit.
But here is the thing to remember, King Five is trash. So is Ace five but like I said above you have to have some junk in your game.
Maybe these are the hands you want to spend your junk allowance on which could be very profitable for you. However, there needs to be something that you consistently fold. And that includes things like KT, QT or my least favorite cards - JT. Those three hands are the most marginal of the marginals.
What is really painful about this range of cards is how easy it is to think you have the lead, but you don’t. Unless you have a monster with Q9 it is extremely vulnerable to being counterfeited. The fastest way to lose money is having a good but second-best hand. You usually do not want to go to many showdowns with a marginal hand.
Suited Connectors
Wow only three cards to-go for a straight-flush!
Suited connectors are the ultimate optimist hand. For one, they look really nice. That fact alone is encouraging.
I heard a cool piece of advice: pretend your hand is unsuited — do you still like it? Because being suited only gives you a one-percent equity bump. Being connected gives you another one-percent. So a grand total of 2% for your trouble. Most players know this already. If you did not then you were probably losing money betting on 1/100 odds.
Again there is nothing actually wrong with playing these cards. In fact you have to play something from late position and collect your share of the blinds to stay afloat. Whether it is these cards or something else does not really matter so long as you fold when you cannot win and raise when the opponent is less than confident.
What is nice about suited-connectors is they are less likely that you are going to end up catching second best. With bad cards you will either hit big and have a hidden hand or miss completely and be able to get away cheap.
I guess the only question left is how to spend all those Poker winnings…
This post was an introduction. The bottom line is every time you sit at a table you are going to be dealt some number of hands. Part of the strategy going into a game is having an idea of what percent you want to play based on the table action.
If this is true:
- not getting dealt strong hands
- at an aggressive table
- blinds/rake are low enough
You might play less than 10% of your hands. Conversely if even one of those three things changes then you have to take on more risk.
Playing tight and with some disdain for every hand that isn’t pocket-aces is a solid foundation to build an aggressive raising strategy on top of. If you dug this then I have a few more poker posts. Please subscribe and good luck at the tables!
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