US Election: 15 days to go — A stable race with two weeks left
There came a point last week — probably about Friday evening — when the lack of high quality polls in the US election began to really grind my gears. When you’re stuck just looking at trend lines coming from garbage pollsters like Rasmussen two weeks out from an election, it can get a little frustrating. Fortunately, now a new week has started, we’ve had a little more output and they confirm that the race has remained relatively stable over the last week. Unless something totally unprecedented happens, Hillary Clinton will be elected President on 8 November.
This week, I’ll look at all those states which have shown close races at one point or another this year, but do not currently look like true swing states. This includes Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, South Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Maine, and Texas.
The National Overview on 24 October — Clinton leads by 7
It’s always worth remembering that poll averages are your friend. This is because polls have margins of errors, different methodologies, and, yes, some companies have an agenda they want to push (cough, cough, Rasmussen). That’s why when you have a lot of very different results in national polls in the space of a few days, watching the average is always worthwhile. It’s easy to get excited by a new poll showing Trump up, or one showing Clinton leading by double digits (I’ve done it enough times), but when a poll looks like an outlier, it’s usually an outlier.
So, taking the polling average, it is clear that Clinton is holding on to a substantial lead with just two weeks to go before election day.
It’s also worth bearing in mind that this election is currently ongoing in a number of states. As of today, around 6.5 million people have already voted. Some states allow you to see the party identification breakdown of those early votes (i.e. how many Democrats are voting compared to Republicans). It can be risky to read too much into that information but it seems to broadly confirm the situation described by the polling.
The statewide polling has continued to hold steady as well. The electoral college map continues to heavily favour the Democratic candidate and with two weeks to go looks something like this:
This is the first time since I started this blog when the electoral map this weeks looks exactly the same as last week. And if you’re losing by a big margin with only 15 days to go, that’s not good news by the way.
The Battlegrounds That Might Have Been
Every election, there are some states which at various points look like they might be competitive but ultimately end up not being contested by one party or the other. There are a number of states this year where the polls have sometimes showed close races between Clinton and Trump but have never really ever shifted meaningfully in the other direction. We’ll run through a few of those know, with predictions for each one.
Michigan (16) — like Pennsylvania, Michigan is where Republican presidential dreams go to die. Every election cycle, the Republican candidate claims they’re going to compete in Michigan and then end up losing. This year will be no different: Hillary Clinton will win Michigan.
Wisconsin (10) — this state has one of the longest Democrat voting records in the country (every election since 1984). Having said that, it has sometimes been a remarkably close race — it was the closest single state in the 2004 election for example. There is little suspense this year though: Hillary Clinton will win Wisconsin.
Minnesota (10) — as Wisconsin goes, so goes Minnesota (or something like that). Minnesota is the only state to have voted Democrat in all of the last 8 elections — and this year will be no different: Hillary Clinton will win Minnesota.
Indiana (11) — Indiana used to be one of the most reliably Republican states in the country, until Barack Obama won it narrowly in 2008 (and still no one’s sure exactly how he managed it). It returned to voting Republican in 2012 and will almost certainly stay that way: Donald Trump will win Indiana.
Missouri (10) — Missouri used to be the best ‘bellwether’ states in the country — it almost always voted with the winner of the election. That’s changed recently and the state has moved more reliably Republican: Donald Trump will win Missouri.
South Carolina (9) — it’s always worth keeping an eye on South Carolina as one of those states which Democrats will hope to be more competitive in as time goes on. It looks like a bridge too far this election though and Donald Trump will win South Carolina.
Maine (4) — Maine politics is weird. For years it had two Republican Senators (although arguably the two most moderate Republicans in the country). It currently has a Republican Governor who is in many ways a carbon copy of Donald Trump. And yet it is solidly Democratic at a presidential election. Hillary Clinton will win Maine — for a while it looked like Trump might carry the 2nd congressional district to win one of Maine’s electoral votes but that possibility has receded in recent weeks.
Texas (38) — the great hope for the Democrats is that they can make Texas competitive. If that happens, the Republicans are in a whole heap of trouble (I mean even more than they are now). Recent polls have shown Trump only narrowly ahead there. Whilst I think he will still win Texas, it’s an ominous sign for the Republicans that it looks close.
And that’s it: a quick whistle-stop tour through some of second-tier battlegrounds this year. Next week I will look at the final swing state, which also happens to be the biggest: the state of Florida.
