Why Corona will probably NOT change X forever

If you google “corona will change X forever”, you will get over 5 000 hits. Apparently, everything from men’s fashion and insurance, too dating and office space design will seize to exist as we know it. My personal home turf — marketing and media — is no exception, and various gurus are stumbling over each other to predict the wildest transformations. But let´s stop for a second to see if we can foretell our post-corona future by looking at both past and present.

In the tall apartment buildings of Tokyo, many youths (predominantly men) are looking at the ongoing self-isolation and social distancing from a different perspective. Instead of being forced into a new way of live, they are seeing it as a society adapting to their routine.

Hikikomori is a Japanese term describing how young(ish) adults, often very focused with their online life, often intimidated by the prospect of adulthood, isolate themselves in their rooms. It has been a phenomenon since the eighties, a 2015 Cabinet Office survey estimated that 541,000 Hikikomori aged 15 to 39 exist in Japan. Now, close to two billion people around the globe are testing out their way of life.

In Guangzhou China, the Hermès flagship store re-opened after Corona lockdown in April 2020. The first day of business broke all records with 2,7 million USD in sales. A host of shoppers documented their extravagant purchases across multiple social media platforms, including Weibo and Xiaohongshu. One shopper identified as Atomniu, posted extensively about her spending spree claiming to have spent $142,124 in Hermès that day.

Eric Yuan, the CEO of video conferencing platform Zoom, on April 23rd celebrated share prices going up a whopping 146% in 2020. He is now accused of off-loading a large chunk of these shares before concerns about the platform’s security issues became headlines. News of Facebook launching their own video-conferencing service didn´t help and caused the shares to plummet.

In April, for the first time in history, the primary U.S. oil contract closed at a negative price, close to -40USD per barrel Oil. All contracts have an expiration date, and when Corona put a crunch on oil demand, there were no buyers, only sellers. If you have a May contract at expiration, you must take physical delivery of 1,000 barrels of oil at Cushing, Oklahoma.

The image of a commodities trader in an expensive suit desperately trying to fit 1,000 barrels of oil into a conference room was amusing but short-lived. The contracts for oil in June are at over 20 USD a barrel. The drop was temporary.

In Logroño, northern Spain, a man was arrested by attempting to circumvent strict quarantine rules by taking his goldfish for a walk.

In Germany, people are testing out drive-in raves.

Some people did voluntary isolation before the lockdown.

Some went straight from the experience of a pandemic to shopping luxury bags for 100K+ USD.

People make and lose money because of the pandemic, but things tend to bounce back.

And we do our best to adapt to a new normal, but old habits die hard.

The world may be temporarily disrupted, but humans are the same.

20 years ago the millennium bug was going to change society as we knew it. People stockpiled food, water and toilet paper. Some thought the prepping behaviour would mean a breakthrough for online grocery shopping and remote working. Then things went back to normal. People used up their TP stockpile and went to work. Businesses recovered from the “crisis” and went back to its usual self.

10 years ago, Icelandic Volcano Eyjafjallajökull erupted and brought all European air travel to a halt, creating the highest level of air travel disruption since the Second World War. We saw a big drop in carbon emissions, a crisis for the travel industry, a discussion on the future of travel vs video conferencing. And then things went back to normal again.

I believe the disruptive effects of the Corona virus will accelerate some changes that were already ongoing, and halt others. For better or for worse, we humans will keep the traits we have had since the dawn of civilisation. Restaurants and tourism industry companies will fail but our desire for social interaction and new experiences means they will bounce back post corona. Absolutely, video conferencing is on the rise, but the desire for water-cooler gossip, a handshake and just background noise means we’ll soon be back in the open plan office.

And while, on the positive side, human spirit will help bring much of the things we like in society back, there is a negative aspect as well. We will probably not take this opportunity for reflection and positive change. Global carbon emissions look to be down 4% in 2020 because of Corona, about half of the 7,6% the UN says we need to keep from destroying our planet. That should be an eye opener, but we will probably not scrutinise our travel habits and general consumerism.

When the smoke has settled, the effects of this virus won´t prevail, the world will not have changed at large. Things will basically go back normal.

I have a sold-out Hermès store to prove it.