Explained: How soil moisture on battlefields affected Ukraine war?
An exclusive analysis shows the soil moisture data, Soil Water Index (SWI), is closely linked to the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine.
SWI data from European Space Agency (ESA) was quite high in the north of Ukraine when Russian troops invaded the country on 24 February last year. Russia failed to occupy the capital Kyiv in the initial stage of the war.
Tanks stuck in mud due to warm winter
Russian military vehicles stuck on the march and formed the maximum 64km (40miles) long convoy in the north of Kyiv for a few weeks after the further invasion.
Gathering on paved roads to avoid muddy ground is considered to be a contributing factor to the failure although there were various causes of the congestion including poor operational planning
The warm winter in 2022 helped Ukraine to hamper the Russian invasion. In Chernihiv, 100 km northeast of Kyiv, two T-80BV tanks stuck in the mud were posted on social media. The Soviet-era tank weighs 42.5 tons.
Before the invasion, the daily average temperature in Kyiv had been warmer than in previous years and above freezing.
Therefore, snow melt was earlier than usual. The average temperatures from 2000 to 2021 exceed zero degrees Celsius on 3 March.
Though the data between 27 February and 4 March was not recorded, the surface temperature around Kyiv of approximately zero degrees Celsius or above, according to the Japan’s weather satellite Sikisai.
The soil data shows if Russian President Vladimir Putin had decided to invade at an earlier date or it had been strict winter like in 2018, it might have affected the result.
The two satellite images of the Dnieper River taken in late March illustrate last year’s mild winter. The part of the river that looks like a lake, lies about 15 km north of the capital’s centre.
As a result, the Russian brigades which try to occupy Kyiv retreated until 4 April 2022. The US Department of Defence pointed out the reasons attributed to maintaining logistics as well as morale.
The surface retaining moisture made the troops gather on the road. They were attacked by US-provided anti-tank Javelin missiles and other weapons.
Recapturing Kharkiv region and dry soil
When the Ukrainian military retook Kharkiv in early September 2022, the area was relatively dry, according to the SWI heat map. Compared to the time of the invasion, the entire country was considerably drier.
Institute for the Study of War’s reports show that Ukraine regained huge occupied territory for two weeks. The dry ground was likely to have favoured the Ukrainian military’s manoeuvring operations with tanks.
Unfortunately, it is impossible to verify the condition at the time using the meteorological data on the ground. The weather data in occupied areas has not been recorded since the full-scale invasion began.
A large part of Kharkiv’s weather report in 2022 is missing due to the war. 298 days of data in the year are not available. The daily average temperature graph tells the reality of the country being invaded by military power.
On the other hand, the chart with missing values indicates that summer temperatures are high and the ground is prone to drying out.
Anticipated counteroffensive and surface condition
Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, tweeted on 25 May that the anticipated counteroffensive have already been taking place yesterday, are taking place today and will continue tomorrow.
Zelensky also said that we are ready to do the counteroffensive, The Wall Street Journal reported on 3 June.
However, the latest SWI on 31 May shows the north Ukrainian side of the front line is wet. Ukrainian army has to break through the Russian fortification line using tanks supplied by Western countries.
The Russian military has dug trenches and placed concrete pieces called dragon’s teeth to prepare for the attack. The defence lines are multi-layered.
The ditches in Ocheretuvate, Zaporizhzhia Oblast are visible through satellite imagery. Many experts predict that Ukrainian forces march towards the Sea of Azov and break up Russian-occupied territory.
Rain in areas where Ukrainian troops are concentrated may have affected the start of the massive offensive. Dnipropetrovsk, about 100km (62miles) north of the front line, had rain in late May.
Soil moisture is still one of the key parameters for military decision-making, while Ukrainian Crimea Peninsula was annexed by Russian hybrid warfare combined with cyberattacks in 2014.
The SWI is likely to affect the forthcoming counteroffensive because the World War II combat style has been ongoing in Ukraine.
Even supplied the British Challenger 2, a third-generation main battle tank, has a possibility to get stuck in the mud like Nazi Germany, whose march was delayed by the Russian quagmire in 1941.
