When Exponential Progress Becomes Reality

Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near (New York: Penguin Books, 2005), p. 70 (recent data extrapolated)

Moore’s Law

5 Computing Paradigms: Electromechanical computer build by IBM for the 1890 U.S. Census → Alan Turing’s relay based computer that cracked the Nazi Enigma → Vacuum-tube computer predicted Eisenhower’s win in 1952 → Transistor-based machines used in the first space launches → Integrated-circuit-based personal computer

The Law of Accelerating Returns

The Power of Exponential Growth

# of Grains on 1st half: 4,294,967,295

# of Grains on 2nd half: 18,446,744,069,414,600,000

Kurzweil’s Predictions

“…Ray is the best person I know at predicting the future of artificial intelligence.” —Bill Gates

Second Half of the Chessboard Predictions

“By the 2020s, most diseases will go away as nanobots become smarter than current medical technology. Normal human eating can be replaced by nanosystems. The Turing test begins to be passable. Self-driving cars begin to take over the roads, and people won’t be allowed to drive on highways.”

“By the 2030s, virtual reality will begin to feel 100% real. We will be able to upload our mind/consciousness by the end of the decade.”

To expand image → https://twitter.com/nivo0o0/status/564309273480409088

“By the 2040s, non-biological intelligence will be a billion times more capable than biological intelligence (a.k.a. us). Nanotech foglets will be able to make food out of thin air and create any object in physical world at a whim.”

These clones are cute.

“By 2045, we will multiply our intelligence a billionfold by linking wirelessly from our neocortex to a synthetic neocortex in the cloud.”

To expand image → https://twitter.com/nivo0o0/status/568686671983570944

Hybrid Human Machines

To expand image → https://twitter.com/nivo0o0/status/568686671983570944

“We’re going to become increasingly non-biological…”

“We’ll also have non-biological bodies…”

“If the biological part went away it wouldn’t make any difference…”

They* will be as realistic as real reality.”

Impact on Society

I tweet about Startups, VC, and MUFC. All your tweets are my favorite. @Nivo0o0

I tweet about Startups, VC, and MUFC. All your tweets are my favorite. @Nivo0o0