Cryptocurrencies both are and not a bubble
As the bitcoin fork approaches and the general initial exuberant wave of cryptocurrency growth is plateauing into a more sobering outlook, here are my thoughts on the future.
I see a VERY clear parallel between the dot com bubble and the cryptocurrency bubble we are in. (Yes, I believe its a bubble).
The era of the dot com bubble grew around the notion that everything would be done online, all shopping and all communication.
They were wrong, but only wrong AT THE TIME.
The early adopters and the visionaries saw the future, which only really started to come into existence a decade later and hit a high note a decade and a half later.
Its only now that we are truly seeing that future play out.
The same applies to cryptocurrencies.
The initial wave was started by true visionaries who understood the paradigm shift that would come and created the first push.
The next wave was the speculators who ride any upward heading waves.
People buy cryptocurrencies because they anticipate that they will hold atleast the same value in the future, however this value is married to eventually using it.
The actual commercial aspect of all the major cryptocurrencies is TINY. Most of the transactions are trades.
The only real market is dark net markets — and they too only apply to bitcoin.
What the community of early crypto adopters needs is to increase the actual use of bitcoin, not the influx of more speculators.
The bubble will crash and billions will get wiped out.
However, a decade from now we will see the true value of things we play with now.